View
0
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
12/26/2011
1
Week 1A: Intro to Energy SustainabilityT. Agami Reddy
Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ
Outline1. Collapses in the past2. Sustainability: Definitions and concepts3. Deficiency of sustainability metrics4. Sustainable development5. Environmental challenges6. Energy use7 S i l bl d b hi h7. Societal problems caused by high energy use8. Climate change9. Hindrances to adoption of non‐fossil fuels10. Sustainable energy pathways11. Need for technical and quantitative literacy
1Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy
Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy 2
Historic civilizationswhich collapsed!THE WORLD IS MOREINTERCONNECTED NOW!
12/26/2011
2
Definitions of SustainabilityPerhaps the most widely cited qualitative definition:
• Sustainable development is one which “meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future p p g ygenerations to meet their own needs” (Brundtland, UN, 1987)
Sustainable development•Those paths of social, economic, and political progress that
meet the needs of the present without compromising
Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy 3
the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (Steele, 1997)
Another view :
Sustainability represents one of the most challenging interface problems in science today The design of ainterface problems in science today. The design of a sustainable interface between the natural environment and the built or designed environment is as essential to our collective well‐being as any
intellectual pursuit of the age.
Mi h l CMichael Crowe,
President of ASU
Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy 4
12/26/2011
3
Sustainability as an interface issue that balances development/growth and long‐term needs of all four systems
Natural systems
Trade and Commerce, Banking, Healthcare, Education, Law, Government, Defense
Atmosphere,Environment,Oceans, Lakes, Rivers,Flora, Fauna
Social or collective systems
Engineered systems
International relations
Buildings
5
Individual
Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy
Buildings,Transportation,Manufacturing, Highways, Bridges, Water distribution, Telecommunication
Prosperity,Sense of justicePursuit of happiness
Ambiguity in the term “Sustainability”• The concept of “sustainability” is relative rather than absolute• What is sustained?
The earth? Biodiversity? Human life? Living standards?The earth? Biodiversity? Human life? Living standards? • What is meant by “future” 25 years, 50 years, 100 years, 500
years…. 1 million years?• To what geographic scale is it best applied to: entity (building,
industry), community, city/metro, state, region, country, global
The definition of sustainability has become increasingly ambiguous as different definitions emerge depending on specific circumstances
Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy 6
12/26/2011
4
The Deficiency of Sustainability Metrics
• Is sustainability a set of quantifiable objectives, or is it a contemporary myth?it a contemporary myth?– Developed to explain complexities we can’t yet approach descriptively (evolution of the anthropogenic Earth)
– Developed for us to “feel good” about ourselves and as a “marketing” tool
– Translation of vague sustainability issues into design objectives and constraints is biggest gap
7Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy
Sustainable Development‐ A Myth?
“On the one hand, [sustainable development] represents much more than simply an analytical approach to environmental auditing or improving business accountability. It also encompasses and represents a way of acknowledging our values and beliefs, and ascribing meaning to our activities…… it must also be acknowledged that sustainable development is both ideological and immature. As such, it has neither the breadth nor the profundity of the traditions that, to an extent, it supersedes.”p
S. Walker, Sustainability – the evolution of a contemporary myth, Proceedings of the 5th European Academy of Design Conference, Barcelona, Spain, retrieved Jan 11, 2007, from www.ub.es/5ead/PDF/5%20/walker.pdf, p. 8
8Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy
12/26/2011
5
Most Serious Environmental Problemsfrom “Collapse” by Jared Diamond
• Destruction of natural habitats• Overfishing SustainabilityOverfishing• Loss of genetic diversity• Farmland soil erosion• Fossil fuel depletion• Dwindling fresh water• Environmental pollutionI d i f “ li ” i
Sustainability includes, but goes far beyond environmental studies
• Introduction of “alien” species• Human population growth and impact• ….
Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy 9
Sustainability is about:
• being aware of connectivity of the world and the implications of our actions (awareness)
Sustainability Is:
(awareness),
• finding solutions (creativity), expanding options (stewardship),
• building institutions that continually learn (governance), and
• instilling a sense of justice (values).
Ultimately, sustainability is about doing the right thing.
-- Chuck Redman, DirectorSchool of Sustainability at ASU
10Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy
12/26/2011
6
Energy Use‐Background
• Energy use is central to the functioning and development of societiesdevelopment of societies
• Large amounts of energy are used in the world (and the United States in particular)
• Even small annual increases in energy use has drastic results‐ exponential growth( rates in developing countries are relatively large)
• We are close to running out of conventional energy resources (currently supplies 85% of needs)
• Energy use is causing other societal problems
Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy 11
World primary energy use has increased exponentially(part of the reason is population increase)
Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy 12
Population growth from 1950: About 220% Energy growth: About 420%
From Boyle et al., 2004‐ Energy Systems and Sustainability
12/26/2011
7
Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy 13
Societal Problems caused by high carbon-based energy use
Running out Cli t h ( l l i th h )Climate change (sea level rise, weather changes,…)Environmental degradation (air, water, land)Effect on human healthEffect on eco-systemsEffect on species (extinction, loss of diversity,…)Dependence on other countries for energy supplies
14
Dependence on other countries for energy supplies(energy security)
Social inequity
Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy
12/26/2011
8
Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming
From IPCC report, 200715Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy
16Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy
12/26/2011
9
Greenhouse gas emissions‐Large inequity among countries
From: David McKay, 2009Without the Hot Air
Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy 17
Hindrances to Adoption of Non‐Fossil Fuels
• Govt. inability to set limits to CO2
• Dissension among professionals on the impact of climate• Dissension among professionals on the impact of climate change on GDF
• “Tragedy of commons” effect
• Lack of proper energy policy
• Well established fossil based industry
• Psychological barriers of adoption by individuals
• Cost barriers (renewables have higher first costs)
Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy 18
12/26/2011
10
Setting Limits to Atmospheric CO2 Levels
‐UN International Earth Summit, Rio de Janerio, 1992:adopted UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
‐Kyoto Protocol (1997) amendment where industrialized countriesagreed to reduce their emissions on greenhouse gasesby 5.2% compared to 1990
‐The protocol came into force in February 2005. Over 160 countries ratified the agreement (notable exceptions‐ US and Australia).The US felt that it would damage the economy, and objected to
Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy 19
g y, jfact that developing countries were not required to reduce emissionsprotocol ends in 2012
‐Copenhagen meeting (Dec 7, 2009)‐ no resolution
Another sourceOf uncertaintyIn the climatechangedebate:debate:
Largedifferencesamong scientistson potentialimplications
Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy 20From Nordhaus (1994)
12/26/2011
11
This perspective referred to as:
the tragedy of the commonsis a dilemma arising from the situation in which multiple individuals, acting independently, and solely and rationally consulting their own self‐interest, will ultimately deplete a shared li it d h it
Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy 21
limited resource even when it is clear that it is not in anyone's long‐term interest for this to happen.
Sustainable Energy Pathways
• Boyle et al. (2003) define energy sustainability to mean harnessing energy sources:
‐ that are not substantially depleted by continued use
‐ the use of which does not entail the emission of pollutants or other hazards to the environment on a substantial scale
‐ the use of which does not involve the perpetuation of substantial health hazards or social injusticesj
Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy 22
12/26/2011
12
Sustainable Energy Pathways 1/2
• Improve the energy and material efficiency of processes involving the exploration, extraction, transportation and conversion/refining of fossil fuels
• Use fossil fuels in a more “clean and safe” manner by better technology and rational public policy measurestechnology and rational public policy measures – improve miles per gallon for transportation– develop alternative transportation (hydrogen, electric cars,…)– encourage more efficient transportation (public)– clean coal technologies (coal‐derived synthetic gas)– coal capture and sequestration in coal power plants– safer nuclear disposal technology
• Improve supply side efficiency of gas/oil technologies ‐ combined cycle gas turbine systems
Boyle, 2004Energy Systems and Sustainability
23
y g y‐ combined heat and power system‐ distributed generation
• Improve and promote renewable energy sources and technologies• Improve existing energy carrier systems (such as electric grid) and
energy storage (such as hydrogen, batteries,…)
Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy
Sustainable Energy Pathways 2/2• Enhance demand‐side or end use energy conservation‐ improve
efficiency of equipment and implement better management practices
• Push for structural changes ‐ in the manner in which energy is used‐ in power generation and manufacturing‐ improve match between load requirements and energy source using 2ndlaw of thermodynamics with its built‐in measure of quality )
• Improve/revise design and costing methods: ‐ Life cycle analysis‐ embodied energy‐ Include adverse cost of global warming‐ carbon tax/carbon trading‐ Properly account for hidden costs of conventional energy
24
Properly account for hidden costs of conventional energy
• Policy‐ proper incentives for energy conservation/ renewables‐ have a coherent long‐term energy plan
• Individual‐ changes in lifestyle at societal level‐ need for some sacrifice (see article by Laband and South)Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy
12/26/2011
13
Historical Carbon Emissions with TwoPotential Pathways for the Future
7 Wedges14
Socolow & Pacala- Carbon Stabilization Wedges
StabilizationTriangle
lions of Ton
s of Carbo
n Em
itted Pe
r Year
gare neededto build the stabilizationtriangle.
1 Wedgeavoids 1 billion
25
Flat Path
2004 2054
Year
Bill tons of carbon
emissions per yearby 2054.
71 “Wedge”
Source: R. Socolow, R. Hotinski, J.B. Greenblatt, and S. Pacala.
Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy
Carbon Wedges
Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy 26
Source: Socolow & Pacala,“A plan to keep carbon in
check”Scientific American, Sept. 2006
12/26/2011
14
SOS 324: Technical Literacy
• Introductory course meant to provide a broad overview of the science, engineering and potential of renewable energy‐ some amount of quantification is imperative for proper comprehension
• Enhance your ability to do SIMPLIFIED calculations so that you could make your own conclusions in the future‐ Order of magnitude calculation‐ For social and policy implications: accuracy about 20%‐ For actual implementation, accuracy <5%
• Will not cover ethical or social aspects• Meant for science, business, policy students
Course Overview‐SOS 324‐Reddy 27
How to Evaluate Factual Assertions• Off shore wind (wind energy is the most effective RE
technology) can satisfy all our energy needs, so let us invest in it right away?g y
• By eliminating “parasitic or standy‐ electric losses” in all US homes, one can avoid as much oil as we get from Alaska.
• If everyone changes his/her thermostat by 1 F, drives a smaller car, and becomes a vegetarian, will an energy crisis be averted?
• Climate change is a far greater threat to the world than is• Climate change is a far greater threat to the world than is international terrorism (not a factual assertion)
Course Overview‐SOS 324‐Reddy 28
Avoid using numbers to impress by their magnitude :‐LA residents drive 142 million miles /day‐ the distance from the Earth to Mars
‐Each year, 27 million acres of rainforest are destroyed
Recommended