Web Science (VU) (706.716) - KTIkti.tugraz.at/staff/socialcomputing/courses/webscience/... ·...

Web Science (VU) (706.716)

Elisabeth Lex

ISDS, TU Graz

March 4, 2019

Elisabeth Lex (ISDS, TU Graz) WebSci March 4, 2019 1 / 52

The Web: networks, social media, communication, information,...

Lecturer

Name: Elisabeth LexOffice: ISDS, Inffeldgasse 13, 5th Floor, Room 072

Office hours: By appointmentPhone: +43-316/873-30841email: elisabeth.lex@tugraz.at

Lecturer

Name: Denis HelicOffice: ISDS, Petersgasse 116, Room 26

Office hours: Tuesday from 12 til 13Phone: +43-316/873-30610email: dhelic@tugraz.at

Language

Lectures in English

Communication in German/English

If in German: please informally (Du)!

Examination: German/English

Language

Lectures in English

Language

Lectures in English

Language

Lectures in English

Welcome and Introduction

Course context

Obligatory course Bachelor Software Development and Business (6thSemester: the old study plan)

Obligatory course Bachelor Computer Science (6th Semester: the newstudy plan)

Elective course in Master Computer Science/Software Developmentand Business if not already taken in Bachelor

Course context

Goals of the course

(1) Discuss Web as half technical – half social system.

(2) Learn about basic scientific methodology for the Web: network theoryand analysis, data mining, social processes on the Web

(3) Understand that further development of the Web requires scientificengineering approach

Science: analyze Web as object of scientific inquiry and learn somethingnew

Engineering: use new knowledge and improve algorithms

(4) Learn about python as analysis tool

Goals of the course

Course Organization

Course logistics

Course website: http://kti.tugraz.at/staff/

socialcomputing/courses/webscience/

Slides will be made available on course website

Additional readings, references, links, etc. also on website

Newsgroup: tu-graz.lv.web-science

Course Organization

Course logistics

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Grading

Programming project in python with a provided code skeleton

Handout via web page & lecture: 08.04.2019, submission: 03.06.2019

Visualize evolution, plot histograms of interesting quantities

Final exam: 24.06.2019 - exact time & location will be announced inlecture & newsgroup

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Project: 30 points

Final examination: 5 written questions for a total of 50 points

Total for the project and examination is 80 points

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Project: 30 points

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Project: 30 points

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Project: 30 points

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You have to reach at least 16 points for the project!

You have to reach at least 25 points for the final exam!

You have to reach at least 41 points combined to be positive!

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Grading

0-40 points: 5

41-50 points: 4

51-60 points: 3

61-70 points: 2

71-80 points: 1

Course Organization

Until 06.03.2019: register for the course (06.03.2019 23:59)

If you do not register you can not obtain the grade for thiscourse

Create your SVN project in TUGOnline as early as possible afterstudent projects were handed out (08.04)

Special naming scheme will be announced by teaching assistant on08.04 on then presented submission slides

Add teaching assistant as reader

If your SVN project is not created you will not be able toparticipate in the course

Course Organization

08.04.2019: student project handed out (via Web page and in class)

03.06.2019: submission date (hard deadline)

Teaching assistant will check out your submission from SVN at thehard deadline

No SVN project, tutor cannot check out or nothing submitted =⇒ 0points

Course Organization

Course policy

Plagiarism: By submitting home assignments, you agree that yourwork will be processed by plagiarism tools.

You are allowed to discuss home assignments with colleagues

You are not allowed to jointly work on the assignments, copysolutions or share code.

The software will check first, then teaching assistants

If they suspect a case of plagiarism you will be asked for yourcomment

In 99% of cases this already clarifies the situation

In the remaining 1% of cases Denis or me will be involved, after thatthe Dean of the study

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Questions?

Raise them now (+1 +1)

Ask after the lecture (+1)

Visit us in the office hours (+1)

Send us an e-mail (-1)

As a side note: you should(!) interrupt me immediately (+1 +1 +1)and ask any question you might have during the lecture

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Questions?

Motivation

The Web

Fastest growth of any technology in human history

How long to reach 50 million people?

Telephone 75 years

Radio 35 years

TV 13 years

The Web 4 years

Motivation

The Web

Telephone 75 years

Radio 35 years

TV 13 years

The Web 4 years

Motivation

The Web

Telephone 75 years

Radio 35 years

TV 13 years

The Web 4 years

Motivation

The Web

Telephone

75 years

Radio 35 years

TV 13 years

The Web 4 years

Motivation

The Web

Telephone 75 years

Radio 35 years

TV 13 years

The Web 4 years

Motivation

The Web

Telephone 75 years

35 years

TV 13 years

The Web 4 years

Motivation

The Web

Telephone 75 years

Radio 35 years

TV 13 years

The Web 4 years

Motivation

The Web

Telephone 75 years

Radio 35 years

13 years

The Web 4 years

Motivation

The Web

Telephone 75 years

Radio 35 years

TV 13 years

The Web 4 years

Motivation

The Web

Telephone 75 years

Radio 35 years

TV 13 years

The Web

4 years

Motivation

The Web

Telephone 75 years

Radio 35 years

TV 13 years

The Web 4 years

Motivation

The Web

Figure: Jakob Nielsen, 100 Million Web Sites,http://www.useit.com/alertbox/web-growth.html

Three growth stages:

1991-1997: Explosive growth, rate of 850% per year.

1998-2001: Rapid growth, rate of 150% per year.

2002-2006: Maturing growth, rate of 25% per year.

Motivation

The Web

Motivation

The Web

Motivation

The Web

Motivation

The Web

Motivation

The Web

Motivation

The Web

The size of the Web

≈ 1000 billions http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2008/07/

we-knew-web-was-big.html

Pages indexed by Google ≈ 50 billionshttp://www.worldwidewebsize.com/

Motivation

The Web

The size of the Web

Motivation

The Web

The size of the Web

Motivation

The Web

The size of the Web

Motivation

The Web

Figure: http://techcrunch.com/2009/05/08/is-the-growth-of-the-web-slowing-down-or-just-taking-a-breather/

Motivation

Web Science

Web as an object of scientific inquiry

“[...] As the Web has grown in complexity and the number and types ofinteractions that take place have ballooned, it remains the case that weknow more about some complex natural phenomena (the obvious exampleis the human genome) than we do about this particular engineered one.”

A Framework for Web Science by T. Berners-Lee and others

Motivation

Web Science

Web as an object of scientific inquiry

“[...] As the Web has grown in complexity and the number and types ofinteractions that take place have ballooned, it remains the case that weknow more about some complex natural phenomena (the obvious exampleis the human genome) than we do about this particular engineered one.”

A Framework for Web Science by T. Berners-Lee and others

Motivation

Web Science

Motivation

Web Science

Web as a sociotechnical system

The web is half social and half technical; you can’t separate the social andthe technical

T. Berners-Lee

Motivation

Web Science

What does that mean?

Beginning: software engineers like us

Full control over system, its behavior, its functionality

But: Algorithms work with data generated by users

We engineers lost control of the system!

Motivation

Web Science

Motivation

Web Science

Motivation

Web Science

Motivation

Web Science

Motivation

Examples: Algorithms based on user generated data

Recommender Systems (Amazon, Netflix, ...)

Ranking algorithms in search engines

PageRank: links created by users

All can have unintended side effects! Which ones?

Motivation

All can have unintended side effects!

Which ones?

Motivation

Side effects of algorithms on the Web

Amplification of biases (e.g. gender, ethnicity)

Distribution of false information (e.g. misinformation, conspiracytheories)

Boosting of malicious content (e.g. spam farms)

Motivation

Web Science

Observe: e.g. collect access logs on a recommender site

Measure: e.g. how many users buy which products

Quantify: e.g. similarity between users

Make a model: e.g. users with similar interests buy similar products

Predict with the model and validate: e.g. implement and evaluate

Apply: engineering approach to implementing the model in thesoftware

All steps together: scientific methodology (Web Science)

Motivation

Web Science

Motivation

Web Science

Motivation

Web Science

Motivation

Web Science

Motivation

Web Science

Motivation

Web Science

Course Overview

Course Topics

World Wide Web: a short history

What is network theory? Why it is relevant for the Web?

How do networks evolve?

How can we model dynamics of social influence and aggregatingbeliefs on the Web?

How do we search in networks?

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Course Topics

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How many of you know...

6 degrees of separation (Small-world phenomenon)

Degree distribution

Power-law networks

The meaning of PageRank

Agent-based modeling

Course Overview

Degree distribution

Power-law networks

Course Overview

Degree distribution

Power-law networks

Course Overview

Degree distribution

Power-law networks

Course Overview

Degree distribution

Power-law networks

Course Overview

Degree distribution

Power-law networks

Course Overview

The beginnings of the Web...

1963: Ted Nelson and Douglas Engelbart created model for linkedcontent: Hypertext and Hypermedia

1973/74: Vint Cerf: “father of the Internet”, and others put togetherprotocols and technical specifications and coin the term “Internet”

Course Overview

The Internet and the Web

Internet 6= Web

Course Overview

1989: A scientist from CERN wanted to share information withscientists from CERN and other universities: proposal for World WideWeb by Tim Berners-Lee

Hypertext

“HyperText is a way to link and access information of various kinds as aweb of nodes in which the user can browse at will. It provides a singleuser-interface to large classes of information (reports, notes, databases,computer documentation and on-line help). We propose a simple schemeincorporating servers already available at CERN... A program whichprovides access to the hypertext world we call a browser...”

Tim Berners-Lee , R. Cailliau. 12 November 1990, CERN

Course Overview

Hypertext

Course Overview

Hypertext

Course Overview

URL: a unique address of a Web resource (page, image, ...)

HTTP: a stateless protocol built on the top of TCP/IP for dataexchange

HTML: a simple markup language for Web documents

<a href=...>: an element for linking other documents on the Web

Simple, scalable, flexible: reasons for the huge success

Course Overview

Web Science

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Web Science

Course Overview

Theories on the Web...

A few examples of assertions:

Every page on the web can be reached by following less than 10 links.(True/False/Depends?)

A wikipedia page contains, on average, 0.03 false facts(True/False/Depends?)

1%-4% of users express their search queries in the form of goals suchas “increase adsense revenue” (True/False/Depends?)

The average number of words per search query is more than 3(True/False/Depends?)

Course Overview

Can these statements be easily validated?

Can they lead to good/interesting theories?

What constitutes good theories?

Clarity, simplicity

Predictive and explanatory power

Applicability and utility

Testability and falsifiability

Course Overview

Clarity, simplicity

Course Overview

Clarity, simplicity

Course Overview

Clarity, simplicity

Course Overview

Clarity, simplicity

Course Overview

Clarity, simplicity

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Clarity, simplicity

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Clarity, simplicity

Course Overview

Networks

Network theory

Graph theory vs. Network theory

Graph theory: focus on mathematics and analytical approaches (smallgraphs)

Network theory: focuses on networks observed in the “real world”

Large empirical networks, statistical approaches

Many different forms of networks available on the Web

Can you name a few of them?

Course Overview

Networks

Network theory

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Networks

Network theory

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Networks

Network theory

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Networks

Network theory

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Networks

Network theory

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Networks

Network theory

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Networks

Network theory

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Networks

Figure: Social network of HP Labs constructed out of e-mail communication.From: How to search a social network, Adamic, 2005.

Course Overview

Networks

Figure: Network of pages and hyperlinks on a Website. From: Networks, MarkNewman, 2011.

Course Overview

Networks

Content of this course is mainly based on free, online textbook:

Networks, Crowds, and Markets: Reasoning About a HighlyConnected World, by David Easley and Jon Kleinberg, 2010

http://www.cs.cornell.edu/home/kleinber/networks-book/

Course Overview

Networks

Course Overview

Networks

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Networks

Course Overview

Agents

Agents, interactions, dynamics

Individual agents follow simple rules

Interaction guided by simple rules

However, evolution may result in a very complex system

Emergent properties

Course Overview

Agents

Emergent properties

Course Overview

Agents

Emergent properties

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Agents

Emergent properties

Course Overview

Agents

Emergent properties

Course Overview

Agents

Emergent properties

Example: The Schelling Model

The Schelling Model (1/2)

Population of agents of type X or O

Types: immutable characteristics (e.g., age)

Init: two type of populations placed at random on grid

Determine if each agent is satisfied with its current location

Satisfied if surrounded by at least t of its own type of neighbors

Agents unsatisfied: Agents move to the next random location

Threshold t applies to all agents in the model

Is this realistic?

No. Why?

In reality, agents have different thresholds

Is this realistic?

No. Why?

Is this realistic?

No. Why?

Is this realistic?

No. Why?

Is this realistic?

No. Why?

Is this realistic?

No. Why?

Is this realistic?

No. Why?

Is this realistic?

No. Why?

Example

(a) Initial stage (b) After one round

Figure: Left image: dissatisfied agents have an asterisk. Right image: shows newconfiguration after all dissatisfied agents have relocated

What is the threshold t?

Example

(a) Initial stage (b) After one round

Figure: Left image: dissatisfied agents have an asterisk. Right image: shows newconfiguration after all dissatisfied agents have relocated

What is the threshold t?

Effects of Schelling Model

What can happen if agent relocates?

Other become unsatisfied

What can happen in the long run?

Segregation of population

Course Calender

Course calendar

04.03.2019: Introduction and Motivation

11.03.2019: Networks I

18.03.2019: Networks II (Random Graphs)

25.03.2019: Small World Phenomenon I

01.04.2019: Small World Phenomenon II

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08.04.2019: Network Dynamics I (Bayesian Learning, InformationCascades)

29.04.2019: Network Dynamics II (Agent-based Modeling)

06.05.2019: Network Dynamics III (Opinion Dynamics)

13.05.2019: Power Laws and Preferential Attachment I

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20.05.2019: Power Laws and Preferential Attachment II

27.05.2019: Power Laws and Preferential Attachment III

03.06.2019: Information Networks I (Hubs and Authorities)

17.06.2019: Information Networks II (PageRank)

24.06.2019: Exam (exact time + location to be announced)

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Questions?

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Questions?

Web Science (VU) (706.716) - KTIkti.tugraz.at/staff/socialcomputing/courses/webscience/... ·...

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Web Science (VU) (707.000) Elisabeth Lexkti.tugraz.at/staff/socialcomputing/courses/webscience/lectures/... · Web Science (VU) (707.000) Elisabeth Lex KTI, TU Graz April 27, 2015