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Weather Related Data Products for Emergency Management
Practitioners
Christina McCullough
Indiana National Guard
christina.mccullough@us.army.mil
Disclaimer• I am not a soldier. I am a contractor working at
the Indiana National Guard in the Joint Operations Center.
• I do not work for NWS, NOAA or USGS. I use their data. These data make my job easier.
• I am not a meteorologist.
• I am a Geographer; Geographic Information Science and Remote Sensing Technologies.
• I focus my work on how we can deliver scientific data into a common operating picture for Emergency Management Practitioners.
Indiana FEMA Declarations
• Since 1954– 47 FEMA Declarations
• 40 Major Disaster Declarations• 7 Emergency Declarations
–31 (66%) Flood Events
Indiana FEMA Declarations
4085%
715%
Emergency Declaration
Major Disaster Declaration
June 2008 Floods
• June 7-9, 2008 ~2-10 inches rainfall• 21 Flash Flood Warnings• 3 Fatalities• 65 Miles of Impassible Roads
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The Presumed Result
• Landsat 5 & 7– Purdue University
• Vegetation Index • Mississippi State
symbology• Road Closures
– 62 miles
• Geocoded RC26 Images
• Great Product• Not good enough• Not proactive• Communication
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The Request
• “I need for you to tell me where and how much water will result from the rains. And, where will we have flooding conditions in the next 12, 24, 48, 72, and 96 hours?”
NWS AHPS River Gaugesht
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• River Forecasts– 48 Hours– 2872 Total Gauges– Downloadable data
• SHP
• KML/KMZ
• RSS
• Does not forecast out 72 & 96 hours
Communication Failure
• "Adapted from Pacific Disaster Center; www.pdc.org."
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The Project Begins h
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• National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) consists of gridded forecasts of sensible weather elements
• Decision makers requested NDFD graphical data to coexist with our local data.
NDFD Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF)
• Is the total expected liquid precipitation. A QPF will be specified when a measurable (<0.01”) precipitation type is forecast for any hour during a QPF valid period.
• Data Availability– 72 hours, every 6
hours– DEGRIB => 74 hours
• Values > 0 inches
DEGRIB TOOL
The QPF Model (Snow also, (48HRS))
Validating the Model
A
B
1 2 3 4
Individual Selected Polygons
QPF 72HR FINAL
Why NDFD DeGRIB?
• Allows for additional interpretation
• Small polygons – Better math process
• Fast data upload
• Model works very quickly for smaller regions
• Not recommended for nationwide analysis.
• Model not fully automated
In Addition…
• Single NDFD layers can be used
• Hazards Element• http://nowcoast.noaa.gov/
Support to the Geospatial Community
• APPENDIX A Graphical Forecast Weather Element Survey
• APPENDIX B Support to Geospatial Intelligence Community – DeGRIB to ArcProducts
• APPENDIX C Support to Geospatial Intelligence Community – NDFD Model
So what …. BLUF …OngoingPutting it all together for a weather threat analysis
• NWS AHPS Observed Precipitation– .shp, Point data,
• NWS AHPS Observed / Forecast Gauges– .shp, Point data
• NWS Weather Warnings– IMS, Polygon
• USGS Water Watch– .kml, .shp, IMS point data
• NOHRSC Snow Water Equivalent– .kmz, raster grid
• NDFD Probability of Precipitation– .shp, polygon, DeGRIB
• NDFD QPF – shp, polygon, DeGRIB
• NDFD Wind Speed– shp, polygon, DeGRIB
• NDFD Snow– shp, polygon, DeGRIB
• NDFD Apparent Temp Heat Index and Wind Chill– shp, polygon, DeGRIB
• NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Wind Tornado and Hail– csv, point
Thank You
Christina McCullough
Indiana National Guard
christina.mccullough@us.army.mil
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