Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profiler

Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDIBundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz

Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profiler

Christophe Hug, Pirmin Kaufmann, Guy de Morsier

WG5 Meeting 7th of September 2009

Validation studies of project CN-MET

2 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

Project CN-MET I – The Context

• MeteoSwiss project conducted for the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI

• Replacement (and improvement) of the current emergency preparedness tool for the Swiss nuclear power plants (NPP)• Current tool is based on empirical profiles and tower

measurements (Windbank) to provide input for dispersion model

• The tower will be progressively dismantled starting in September 2009

• COSMO-2 data replace the measurements as input for dispersion models of ENSI

3 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

CN-MET II – The networkSt. Chrischona

Stockeren

Uetliberg

Grenchen

Payerne

Schaffhausen

Leibstadt

Beznau

Gösgen

Mühleberg

Bantiger

Kleindöttingen

Mühleberg

4 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

CN-MET III – The Requirements

• Accuracy requirement set by the specification document for the CN-MET project (HSK-ENSI 2005)

• Wind direction (dd) for wind speed > 2 m s-1

95% quantile within ± 20°• Wind speed from 2 m s-1 to 10 m s-1

95% quantile of the absolute error within ± 1 m s-

1

• Wind speed larger than 10 m s-1

95% quantile of the relative error within ± 10%

5 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

Model and real topography

6 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

7 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

Wind profiler in Kleindöttingen (KDT)• H = 205 m high-mode• H = 72 m low-mode• Measurement:

• 675 – 4773 m MSLhigh-mode

• 440 – 1452 m MSLlow-mode

• Height of site: 321 m MSL

Manufacturer specifications:wind direction ± 10°wind speed ± 1 m/s

8 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

Wind profiler Sports Club Zeus (ZES)

9 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

Verification method

• Interpolation of• wind profiler data onto model levels (KDT) or• model data onto wind profiler levels (ZES)

• Verification of wind speed and wind direction• 30 min time step (KDT)• 60 min time step (ZES)

• Separate verification for profiler high-mode and low-mode• Focus on the forecast lead times +00 to +06 h

10 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

Normal distribution ?Both wind speed and wind direction distribution fail the Lilliefors test.

Normal probability plots make it obvious for wind direction.For wind direction and speed there are too many outliers.

11 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

KDT – High-mode wind direction

High-modeWind direction ff ≥ 2 m/s

High-modeWind direction ff ≥ 2 m/s

12 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

ZES – High-mode wind direction

High-modeWind direction ff >= 2 m/s

High-modeWind direction ff >= 2 m/s

13 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

KDT – Low-mode wind direction

Low-modeWind direction ff ≥ 2 m/s

Low-modeWind direction ff ≥ 2 m/s

14 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

ZES – Low-mode wind direction

Low-modeWind direction ff >= 2 m/s

Low-modeWind direction ff >= 2 m/s

15 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

KDT – High-mode wind speed

High-modeWind speed ff <10 m/s

High-modeWind speed ff <10 m/s

16 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

ZES – High-mode wind speed

High-modeWind speed ff < 10 m/s

High-modeWind speed ff < 10 m/s

17 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

KDT – Low-mode wind speed

Low-modeWind speed ff ≤ 10 m/s

Low-modeWind speed ff ≤ 10 m/s

18 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

ZES – Low-mode wind speed

Low-modeWind speed ff < 10 m/s

Low-modeWind speed ff < 10 m/s

19 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

KDT – High-mode realtive wind speed

High-modeWind speed ff ≥ 10 m/s

High-modeWind speed ff ≥ 10 m/s

20 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

Histograms and scatterplots – all levels

Wind direction

High-mode

ff ≥ 2 m/s

Wind direction

High-mode

ff ≥ 2 m/s

0’

Wind direction

High-mode

ff ≥ 2 m/s

Wind direction

High-mode

ff ≥ 2 m/s

21 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

Outliers during the campaign High-Mode (1)

22 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

Case 14 – 15 Aug. 2008 (outlier)

Foehn in green

23 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

Verification in KDT with WP (dd)

BEZ

LEI

24 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

Verification in KDT with WP (ff)

BEZLEI

25 COSMO WG5 Meeting | Verification of COSMO-2 with a mobile wind profilerpirmin.kaufmann@meteoswiss.ch

Conclusions

• The verification scores of COSMO-2 with wind profiler depends on the location of the profiler.

• In average COSMO-2 forecasts are able to reproduce the situation in KDT and ZES

• The tails of the error distribution is larger than for a normal distribution, due to outliers that are always part of a numerical forecast.

• Comparison with tower measurements shows similar or mostly better results than with wind profiler.

Thank you.