US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities...

US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges

Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting

March 20101

Uzi Rubin

Based on open source material. Copyright Rubincon Ltd

Presentation to the Moscow Non Proliferation Conference 2010

• Levels of potential Cooperation.

• US and Russian MD assets.

• Technological and operational challenges.

• Conclusions.

March 20102

Potential Levels of Cooperation between US and Russian MD Assets

1. Joint defense of deployed peace keeping forces: Joint overseas deployment of Theater Missile Defense

systems to protect peace keeping forces.

2. Joint defense of adjacent regions : Coordinated deployment of Theater and National Missile

Defense systems to protect a region against external missile.

3. Joint defense of the national homeland territories of both parties. Use of National Missile Defense systems for mutual

protection of each other’s homeland territories against

missile threats from diverse sources.

This presentation focuses on the technical and operational aspects of the issue,not on the political ones

March 20103

The World As We Know It

March 20104

The World With Lost Continents Added…

March 20105

Level 1 Cooperation

March 20106

Level 2 Cooperation

March 20107

Level 3 Cooperation – Russian MD Supporting US Homeland Defense

March 20108

Level 3 Cooperation – US MD Supporting Russian Homeland Defense

March 20109

US/Russia MD Assets

Theater Missile Defense Systems

• Tactical area defense Interceptor speeds 2 – 3 Km/Sec.

Defense of Ten Thousand to Hundred Thousand Square Km areas.

• Deployable/Mobile.

• Mostly multirole (Air/Missile Defense):

US land based: Patriot PAC 3 (Future MEADS), Thaad

US sea based: AEGIS/SM2 + SM3 Block I

Russia land based: S – 300/400

March 201010

US Land Based TMD Systems: Patriot PAC 3/ MEADS

March 201011

US Land Based TMD Systems: THAAD

March 201012

US Land Based TMD Systems: THAAD

March 201013

Russia Land Based TMD Systems: S300/S400

March 201014

Russia’s Land Based TMD Systems: S300/S400

March 201015

US Sea Based TMD Systems: AEGIS/Standard Missile 3 Block I

March 201016

Level 1 Cooperation - Technological Challenges

• In spite of the asymmetry in sea based TMD assets, Level 1 cooperation (Providing joint missile defense of deployed peace keeping forces) is feasible with the ground based assets of both countries.

• Due to short timelines, best results require integrated tactical defense hence real time synchronization of the disparate system’s operations. This will require the

systems of both countries to be interoperable with each other (i.e. operate as a single System of Systems)

• Assuming that Russia’s systems use modern computerized systems with advanced

operating software systems, interoperability is ultimately feasible.

• This in turn will require in turn high level of transparency about the technicalparameters of both side’s systems.

March 201017

Level 1 Cooperation - Operational Challenges

• Joint operations would require the establishment of

A mutually agreed command structure.

A harmonized set of Rules of Engagement.

• These issues might be more complicated to resolve than the technical challenges.

March 201018

US/Russia MD Assets

Strategic MD Systems

• Strategic area defense (Large regions, entire continents)

Interceptor speeds 4 – 7 Km/Sec.

Defense of millions square Km. areas.

• Fixed/Relocateable. .

• Single Role (Missile Defense):

US land based: GMDS, “AEGIS Ashore” with SM3 Block II A, ditto

with Block IIB

Russia land based: S – 500

March 201019

US Land Based Strategic Missile Defense Systems: Ground Based Midcourse Defense System (GMDS)

6+ Km/sec

March 201020

GMDS Footprint

March 201021

US Land Based Strategic Missile Defense Systems: AEGIS Ashore/Standard Missile 3 Block IIA and Block IIB

4 Km/sec 6 Km/sec ?

March 201022

AEGIS/SM3 Footprints

Courtesy Dean Wilkening, Stanford U. CISAC

March 201023

No Image Available

5-5.5 Km/Sec

Russia Land Based Strategic Missile Defense System: S500

March 201024

Level 2 and 3 Cooperation - Technological Challenges

• Both countries might have the assets for Level 2 and 3 cooperation (Regional and mutual homeland defense) – provided that the S-500 system materializes.

• Due to the longer timelines of Regional/Continental range missiles, close interoperability between systems may not be mandatory.

• Data links for mutual early warning and shared sky picture will be required.

• Assuming that Russia’s systems use modern computerized systems with advancedoperating software systems, these requirements can be met.

March 201025

Levels 2 and 3 Cooperation - Operational Challenges

• Joint regional defense/Mutual homeland defense will require a mutually acceptable rules of engagement.

• This might be more complicated to resolve than the technical challenges.

March 201026

Example: US East Coast defense Against Mideast ICBM

March 201027

US Phase Adaptive plan, Phase IV - 2020 ( US only)Candidate interceptors: SM3 Blk IIB or 2 stg. GBI

March 201028

US Phase Adaptive plan, Phase IV - 2020 ( US/Russia)Candidate interceptor: S-300

March 201029

Some Generic Challenges of Joint Missile Defense

• Some regulatory challenges: National security: Confidentiality of system/component performance,

operational requirements and operational procedures. Proliferation controls: Transfer of information must be compliant with

national legislation and regulations. Proprietary information: confidentiality and commercial rights in proprietary

information.

• Some technical/managerial challenges: Language: Communications and documents. R&D procedures: Design criteria, design reviews, data books, level of testing

etc. Dimensions: Metric, US. Voltage: European, US. Software: Operating systems, applications.

The regulatory challenges are dominant.Once solved, the technical/managerial challenges will be overcome in short order.

March 201030

Summary

• Generally speaking, the MD assets of the US and Russia are compatible with level 1 cooperation provided that technological and operational interfaces are perfected.

• Joint operation on level 2 and in particular level 3 are conditioned on Russia’s

plans for deploying a regional/continental capability MD system.

• The major challenges to the prospects of cooperation are political. Regulatory challenges are secondary but formidable.

• Technological and operational challenges are tertiary and will be resolved in short order pending resolution of political and regulatory challenges.

US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities...

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