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USING CLIMATOLOGY TO FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHEAST COLORADOStan Rose, Meteorologist, National Weather Service, Pueblo, CO
Microburst Winds
Damaging WindsDamaging Winds
• Thunderstorms can produce strong damaging wind gusts up to 100 mph.
• Cold dense rain cooled air accelerates down from the thunderstorm base and spreads outward along the ground creating strong outflow winds.
Aircraft Induced Lightning
ThunderstormsThunderstorms
• Ingredients for a Thunderstorm– Moisture– Instability– Lift
• Sun warms the ground and the air begins to rise (convection)
• Clouds form and build into thunderstorms as moisture condenses within the rising bubbles of air
NWS Pueblo’s County Warning and Forecast Area
NWS Pueblo’s County Warning and Forecast Area
Severe Winds, Southeast Colorado
Time of Severe Weather
Lightning Flash DensityLightning Flash Density
The Monsoon
Annual Lightning Density,Southeast Colorado
Lightning Flash DensityLightning Flash Density
COS PUB
Lightning Density: June
COS PUB
Lightning Density: August
COS PUB
Lightning Density: September
COS PUB
Lightning Density: October
COS PUB
Lightning Density: 17Z
COS PUB
Lightning Density: 18Z
COS PUB
Lightning Density: 19Z
COS PUB
Lightning Density: 22Z
COS PUB
Lightning Density: 01Z
COS PUB
Lightning Density: 03Z
COS PUB
Lightning Density: March
COS PUB
L
March 23, 2010 8 pm MDT IR satellite
Radar, 8:48pm
METARs 10 pm MST
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 00Z 01Z 02Z 03Z 04Z 05Z 06Z 07Z
TS or VCTS in METAR, KCOS Jul-Aug-Sep 2011
July 14, 2011 00Z
TAFS: For Colorado Springs, Pueblo: August
KCOS 081200Z 0812/1612 36008KT P6SM FEW100 SCT200 FM081600 14010KT P6SM SCT100 SCT150 FM082100 16012KT P6SM VCTS SCT070CB BKN100 FM090100 07012KT P6SM SCT060 BKN120
KPUB 081200Z 0812/0912 30007KT P6SM SCT200 FM081600 12010KT P6SM SCT120 SCT200 FM082200 12015KT P6SM VCTS SCT080CB BKN120 FM090100 09012KT P6SM FEW080 SCT150
THAT’S ALL FOLKS!!
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