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US Fleet ForcesUS Fleet Forces US Marine Corps ForcesUS Marine Corps Forces
Hostile Neutral / Undecided Friendly
More
Less
Garnet
PHARM
IDPs
VEOSGOA
PIA
GOAL
Criminal Elements
Muskagee Population
Shahida Population
GOP
NGOs
GARNET
PHARM
IDPs
VEOs
PIA
Criminal Elements
Muskagee Population
Shahida Population
IGO / NGOs
US Fleet ForcesUS Fleet Forces US Marine Corps ForcesUS Marine Corps Forces 2
CENTER OF GRAVITY ANALYSIS – NEFCENTER OF GRAVITY ANALYSIS – NEF
Center of Gravity:•NEF Camps
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL TO USA, MNFA17 Sep 2014 (Draft)
Critical Capabilities:• NEF TOC (C2 & Comms)
• Maritime Security
• Landward Security
Critical Requirements:•HN Political Support•Common Intel Picture / Operational Picture•Robust Coalition Communications Plan•Ability to Communicate/Coordinate with Higher
HQ and HN government•ISR to Understand FP Concerns and/or
Emerging Crisis
Critical Vulnerabilities:•INT’L Legitimacy of Mission•HN Public Support/Perception•HN Security•Freedom/Use of GLOC/SLOC•HN/US/Coalition Logistic Support•Breach of ROEs / Local national casualties,
caused by CF activities•Lack a deep understanding of the situation
(risk making the situation worse).
US Fleet ForcesUS Fleet Forces US Marine Corps ForcesUS Marine Corps Forces
CENTER OF GRAVITY ANALYSIS – HNCENTER OF GRAVITY ANALYSIS – HN
3UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL TO USA, MNFA17 Sep 2014 (Draft)
Center of Gravity:•AMBERLAND Govt.
Critical Vulnerabilities:•PHARM Freedom of Movement/Maneuver•Lovisa Clan Support of PHARM•GARNETIAN Support of PHARM•GLOC/SLOC Vulnerable to VEO Disruption•Commerce Vulnerable to VEO Disruption•Immature AMBERLAND Security Force •Insecure Borders (Ungoverned Space)•Clan Alliances•Public Perception Vulnerable to Deceptive
Messaging (Internal/External)
Critical Capabilities:• Rule of Law
• INT’L Legitimacy
• Freedom of Commerce
• Amberlandian Public Support
Critical Requirements:•UN Sanctions Deterring Increased Aggression•Presence of Unified INT’L Response•INT’L Political / Military Support•IGO/NGO Support•Clan Support•Ability to Communicate/Coordinate with
Coalition/IGO/NGOs•Ability to Disrupt VEO Activity•Ability to Control Public Perception•Ability to Identify/Address Clan Concerns•Ability to Identify/Address Public Concerns
US Fleet ForcesUS Fleet Forces US Marine Corps ForcesUS Marine Corps Forces
Center of Gravity:•Lovisa Clan Facilitation
403 Sep 2013 (V1)
Critical Capabilities:•Recruit Fighters•Provide Safe Haven•Gain External Support•Discredit Government of AMBERLAND (GOAL)
Critical Requirements:•Freedom of Maneuver in AMBERLAND•Provide alternate governance model•Align goals/objectives with the Lovisa Clan•Access to finance, arms and training provided by GARNET•Conduct attacks against GOAL locations & forces•Info Ops campaign to exploit actions and GOAL bias
Critical Vulnerabilities:•Exposure of lack of civil freedoms & atrocities
under PHARM rule•Interdiction of weapons and finance coming
from GARNET•Inability to enforce directives of shadow
government•Hostility of remaining 3 clans within
AMBERLAND•Delivery of effective GOAL governance &
enfranchisement of the Lovisa Clan•Western financial support/NGO activity•Perceptions of PHARM as GARNET puppet
CENTER OF GRAVITY ANALYSIS – PHARMCENTER OF GRAVITY ANALYSIS – PHARM
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL TO USA, MNFA17 Sep 2014 (Draft)
US Fleet ForcesUS Fleet Forces US Marine Corps ForcesUS Marine Corps Forces
Hostile
Friendly
1
2
3
4
DP
LEGENDLEGEND: = NEF Decision Point
PHASE 1
PHASE 2
PHASE 0
NEF – PHASE of OPERATIONNEF – PHASE of OPERATION
COAsCOAs:-Do Nothing (Accept Risk to F/M)
- Request Augment NEF (Mitigate Risk to F/M)
- Request Change MSN (Mitigate Risk to F)- i.e. Consolidate SECFOR to protect key
ports/airfields for follow-on forces
- Request Subordinate NEF - to Adjacent CTF
- Request Redeploy NEF (Unacceptable Risk)
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