Understanding the Ratings Game - NATOA

Connie Ledoux Book, Ph.D.cbook@elon.eduPresentation to

NATOA Annual ConferenceNew Orleans, 2009

Understanding the Ratings Game

Pop QuizCan you trust your gut instinct when it comes to television and the ratings?

1. Television advertising is based on HUT (homes using television). How many households exist in the United States?

Pop QuizCan you trust your gut instinct when it comes to television and the ratings?

1. Television advertising is based on HUT (homes using television). How many households exist in the United States?

2. What percentage of the people receive television over-the-air, via cable or via satellite?

Pop QuizCan you trust your gut instinct when it comes to television and the ratings?

1. Television advertising is based on HUT (homes using television). How many households exist in the United States?

2. People receive television over-the-air, via cable or via satellite?

3. What is the most popular cable television network?

Pop QuizCan you trust your gut instinct when it comes to television and the ratings?

4. What cable network program is consistently in the top 10—making it the most popular television show on cable?

Pop QuizCan you trust your gut instinct when it comes to television and the ratings?

4. What cable network program is consistently in the top 10—making it the most popular television show on cable?

5. How much does ESPN cost per month (on average?)

Pop QuizCan you trust your gut instinct when it comes to television and the ratings?

4. What cable network program is consistently in the top 10—making it the most popular television show on cable?

5. How much does ESPN cost per month (on average?)

6. How many people on average watch Monday night football on ESPN?

Pop QuizCan you trust your gut instinct when it comes to television and the ratings?

4. What cable network program is consistently in the top 10—making it the most popular television show on cable?

5. How much does ESPN cost per month (on average?)

6. How many people on average watch Monday night football on ESPN?

7. How many cable subscribers are “triple play customers”?

Pop QuizCan you trust your gut instinct when it comes to television and the ratings?

4. What cable network program is consistently in the top 10—making it the most popular television show on cable?

5. How much does ESPN cost per month (on average?)6. How many people on average watch Monday night football on

ESPN?7. How many cable subscribers are “triple play customers”?8. If you listed all the TV programs that aired last year, by

popularity, how soon before you would hit a cable television program?

Pop QuizCan you trust your gut instinct when it comes to television and the ratings?

4. What cable network program is consistently in the top 10—making it the most popular television show on cable?

5. How much does ESPN cost per month (on average?)6. How many people on average watch Monday night football on

ESPN?7. How many cable subscribers are “triple play customers”?8. If you listed all the TV programs that aired last year, by

popularity, how soon before you would hit a cable television program?

Pop QuizCan you trust your gut instinct when it comes to television and the ratings?

1. Television advertising is based on HUT (homes using television). How many households exist in the United States?

Pop QuizCan you trust your gut instinct when it comes to television and the ratings?

1. Television advertising is based on HUT (homes using television). How many households exist in the United States?

115 million

Pop QuizCan you trust your gut instinct when it comes to television and the ratings?

1. Television advertising is based on HUT (homes using television). How many households exist in the United States?

115 million

I wonder how many homes my community has?

TVB-a great free resource.

2. People receive television over-the-air, via cable or via satellite?

2. People receive television over-the-air, via cable or via satellite?

a) What percentage of Americans receive television over the air? 11%

b) What percentage subscribe to cable? 61%c) What percentage subscribe to satellite? 28%

I wonder what this breakdown is in my community?

Designated Market Areas

Baton Rouge93% are ADS, 22% satellite, 71% cable

Knowing the distribution system…

Nielsen’s 56 Overnight MarketsSEATTLE-TACOMA

PORTLAND

SAN FRANCISCO-OAKLAND

LOS ANGELES

SAN DIEGO

SAN ANTONIO

DALLAS-FT WORTH

HOUSTON

DENVER

MINNEAPOLIS-ST.PAUL

KANSAS CITYST.LOUIS

MILWAUKEE

CHICAGO

INDIANAPOLISCINCINNATI

CHARLOTTE

ATLANTA

ORLANDO-DAYTONA BEACH

TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG

MIAMI-FT.LAUDERDALE

NEW YORKPHILADELPHIA

BALTIMOREWASHINGTON, DC

HARTFORDNEW HAVEN

PHOENIX

SACRAMENTO-STOCKTON

WEST PALM BEACH

DETROIT

CLEVELAND

PITTSBURGHSALT LAKE CITY

NEW ORLEANS

MEMPHISNASHVILLE

JACKSONVILLE, BRUNSWICK

GREENSBORO

PROVIDENCE

BIRMINGHAM

LAS VEGAS

RALEIGH

Diaries, Meters, LPMs

Pop QuizCan you trust your gut instinct when it comes to television and the ratings?

3. What is the most popular cable television network?

Ratings vs. Shares

Rating= % watching based on total number of HH.

Share=% of watching based on HUT (this is more important)

CUMEs

Reading the ratings….

Pop QuizCan you trust your gut instinct when it comes to television and the ratings?

4. What cable network program is consistently in the top 10—making it the most popular television show on cable?

5. How much does ESPN cost per month (on average?)

6. How many people on average watch Monday night football on ESPN?

Here’s the dilemma.TV audience pie. Cable programs never appear in the top programs watched, they are not available to 11% of the audience. If you take half of the audience and spread it across 8 channels, each channel has a considerable number of viewers. If you take the other half and divide it across 30 channels (basic), then 75 channels (expanded) then 150 channels (digital) each channel has fewer/fewer viewers. It’s cable television’s greatest asset—niche audiences. If you want to know what “nobody” is watching it is ESPNClassic, the Outdoor Network, SciFi Channel.

SoapNet Press Release last month.Here’s a press release from SOAPNet, raving about .07% of viewers.

SOAPnet (3Q 2009)Posting its 7th consecutive quarter of increases, 3Q09 became SOAPnet’s most-watched quarter on record in Total Viewers in Prime (381,000) andTotal Day (198,000). Impressively, this is the second straight quarter the network has delivered at record levels.In Women 18-49, SOAPnet grew its Total Day audience for the 5th straight quarter, hitting all-time highs in 3Q09 (79,000). In Prime 3Q09 became the net’s second-most-watched quarter ever, behind only 2Q08 (142,000 vs. 143,000). Compared to 3Q08, in Prime SOAPnet climbed by an impressive 21% in Total Viewers (381,000 vs. 315,000) and by 35% in Women 18-49(142,000 vs. 105,000). In Total Day SOAPnet improved delivery by an equally impressive 22% in Total Viewers (198,000 vs. 162,000) and by 30% in Women 18-49 (79,000 vs. 61,000).

Cable ratings last week…

Why is everyone so angry at Nielsen’s methodology?Measure in 15 minute intervals.Diaries are no longer productive.DVR environment and online environment – where and how do you count it?Monopoly!

CUMETotal Day Avg. Viewers (Live+SD) (in 000s)

1. NICK 1,9162. DSNY 1,5353. USA 1,3724. ESPN 1,3325. NAN 1,3036. FOXN 1,2817. ADSM 1,0628. TNT 1,020

Why won’t it ever be MTV, VH1 or CMT?

How long before you get to a cable program….

How long before you get to a cable program?

Sample Costs for Cable NetworksDisney Channel $1.48 ESPN $3.78MTV $0.43Fox News $0.51TBS $0.47Weather Channel $0.19C-SPAN $0.05

NCTA Report on a la Carte pricing, 2004; 2006; 2007

Sample PEG ViewershipCUME exposures (weekly exposures)

Broadcast TV is high.

Cable Networks not so high.

Averages using 16 markets across the country (2004-2009):

Government Access Television: 3% daily, 1 in 4 weekly

Education Access Television: 1% daily, 20% weekly

Public Access Television: 1% daily, high variance (15-35%)

Pop QuizCan you trust your gut instinct when it comes to television and the ratings?

7. How many cable subscribers are “triple play customers”?

NCTA research

Fighting back.Cable: “All they do is show reruns. That’s a waste of the bandwidth.

Turn back one of the channels to us.”

Local spot cable advertising: $13 to $53. Using the lowest cost at 8:00 minutes an hour, 12 hours, 365 days: $455,520Using the highest cost at 8:00 minutes an hour, 12 hours, 365 days: $1,875,120Several of the most popular cable networks use reruns as a means to engage the audience. TNT, USA, ABC FamilySeveral of the most popular cable networks are nothing but reruns or the repurposing of old content. ESPN Classic, SoapNet, Gameshow Network. TCM.

Fighting Back.Cable/Telcos:

“We can put all your programming on one screen and then the user can toggle to the programming feed they want. Everybody watches television on the Internet now and that’s how you watch Internet programs.”

Not true!

Reaching the audience.

TV websites.

Watching video online at TV websites.

Fighting BackWhen cable television networks move to a pull versus push format so will PEG. When cable customers access their programming via menu screens then so will PEG.

The notion that we are an Internet television audience is not yet true. About 40% of adults visit television websites and about 40% of those are watching video online. That’s slightly less than 20% of the total viewing audience.

Fighting BackWhen they end using an EPG to provide programming information so will PEG.

When they go all digital so will PEG.

5 Key Things to RememberKnow your market.

Go to organizations that compete or promote cable. They will offer you competitive edge data—and while not required to sell ads, this type of thinking will provide you important information for your council.

When cable networks do it, so will PEG.

Seek relationships with broadcasters (ratings, multicasting).

Use instant reporting (www.surveymonkey.com)

DMA Specific Information

DMA Specific Information

DMA Specific Information

5 Key Things to RememberKnow your market.

Go to organizations that compete or promote cable. They will offer you competitive edge data—and while not required to sell ads, this type of thinking will provide you important information for your council.

When cable does it, so will PEG. Fight back!

Seek relationships with broadcasters (ratings, multicasting).

Use instant reporting (www.surveymonkey.com)

Thank you!