UKRAINE: WINNING LOOSERS AND LOST WINNERS AT THE EXTRAORDINARY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS (SEPTEMBER...

UKRAINE: WINNING LOOSERS AND LOST WINNERS

AT THE EXTRAORDINARY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

(SEPTEMBER 30, 2007)

By Alexey Sitnikov and Julia Kurbaka

September 30, 2007 – Extraordinary Parliamentary Elections

Alexey P. Sitnikov, PhD, Professor

• Founder and President of ICCG (IMAGE-Contact Consulting Group)

Since 1989 year under guidance of Dr. Sitnikov were implemented:more than 400 election campaigns.

• Founder and CEO of Triangle Consulting Group Ltd. (UK)

• President of the National Academy of Social Technologies;Member of IAPC, EAPC, AAPC, IPRA, PRSA, VOST, Higher Expert Council of RASO

• Brought in, adapted and widely propagated NLP (Neuro-Linguistic Programming) in the USSR (1989)

• Sector of experience: strategic consulting in the field of political and business communications

Julia Kurbaka, MA• Working in Ukraine

• Participation and consulting the main political parties at 4 national and 2 regional campaigns.

• Specialization: political consulting, PR and media support

Opposition Block Yuliyi Tymoshenko (BYuT)

• Orange Revolution 2004 caused by Presidential elections split Ukraine into two

ideological and political camps:

– ProRussian Blue camp (Prime minister Yanukovich)

– ProWestern Orange camp (President Yuschenko)

• Yanukovich’s parliamentary coalition striving to obtain the absolute power in the country started to “buy” Opposition Parliament members.

• Orange camp got the third chance to recover the power

• BYuT (Yulia Tymoshenko’s Block) – unique and cogent elections winner

–brilliant election campaign

–unprecedented rating growth

BLOCK YULIYI TYMOSHENKO’S RATING DYNAMICS

7,20%

22,29%24,60% 22,30%

30,71%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

PSYCHO-SEMANTIC RESEARCH OF COLLECTIVE POLITICAL CONSCIOUS

• Psycho-semantic researches unlike polytological theories and media myths deal with collective political conscious as with independent reality.

• Psycho-semantic techniques allow finding out real actual senses used by collective conscious while measuring political subjects (parties and personalities) and own attitude towards different political slogans, views and opinions.

PSYCHO-SEMANTIC RESEARCH OF COLLECTIVE POLITICAL CONSCIOUS

• Introducing psycho-semantic modeling of collective conscious makes the science of political consulting a technological practice which now stands on the knowledge of reality but not only on consultants’ feelings and fantasies often not corresponding to the reality.

• The research found 4 main factors of collective political conscious of Ukrainian citizens.

• They can be presented as four space dimension orthogonal vectors – models of collective political conscious.

• According to the obtained results we can see how the political parties and an image of “Me myself” are placed in the space.

PSYCHO-SEMANTIC RESEARCH OF COLLECTIVE POLITICAL CONSCIOUS

THE IMAGES OF 3 POLITICIANS AND “EVIDENT EVIL” IN THE ELECTORATE CONSCIOUS

The research clearly showed not only the main factor of Ukrainian politics – social and cultural split-up which appeared during the Orange revolution but as well:

PSYCHO-SEMANTIC RESEARCH OF COLLECTIVE POLITICAL CONSCIOUS

SouthWestEastCentreKyivParty or politician

Region

Pro

Ru

ssia

n o

rien

tati

on

Pro

Wes

tren

ori

enta

tio

n

Pro

Ru

ssia

n o

rien

tati

on

Pro

Wes

tren

ori

enta

tio

n

SouthWestEastCentreKyivParty or politician

Region

PSYCHO-SEMANTIC RESEARCH

• The level of electorate polarization along this factor and concrete clouds configurations formed by “My myself” spots on western and eastern poles.

ELECTORATE POLARIZATION BYuT vs PofR

PSYCHO-SEMANTIC RESEARCH• Displacement level of political parties and leaders along

the area of their core and marginal electorate concentration.

SouthWestEastCentreKyivParty or politician

Region

Pro

Ru

ssia

n o

rien

tati

on

Pro

Wes

tren

ori

enta

tio

n

POLITICAL PARTIES AND LEADERS DISPLACEMENT

South

West

East

Centre

Kyiv

Party or politician

Region

Pro

Ru

ssia

n o

rien

tati

on

Pro

Wes

tren

ori

enta

tio

n

PSYCHO-SEMANTIC RESEARCHES OF COLLECTIVE POLITICAL CONSCIOUS

• The opportunities for the electorate consolidation and new supporters involvement for each of the parties.

• The threats for each of the parties to lose unconsolidated electorate and the tools for the opponents while running ideological counter-games.

PSYCHO-SEMANTIC RESEARCHES OF COLLECTIVE POLITICAL CONSCIOUS

Pro

Ru

ssia

n o

rien

tati

onP

roW

estr

en o

rien

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on

SouthWestEastCentreKyivParty or politician

Region

• The results of psycho-semantic research served as a base while forming the campaign strategy which was determined as “electorate zone extension due to the opponents’ marginal electorate and those who are disappointed in politics”.

• All propaganda and media materials for national and regional campaigns and leaders’ speeches were based on the results of research.

PSYCHO-SEMANTIC RESEARCHES OF COLLECTIVE POLITICAL CONSCIOUS

TYMOSHENKO’S CAMPAIGN STRATEGY

• Deploying the struggle at the opponents’ electoral fields, meanwhile not loosing the positions at own fields.

• Refusing from the open confrontation with President Yuschenko and his political party “Our Ukraine”. Creating an own independent image of the only democratic leader.

TYMOSHENKO’S CAMPAIGN STRATEGY

• Shifting from the populist rhetoric to the rhetoric of concrete actions. Introducing a strategy of fast national development “Ukrainian breakthrough” which was the basis of all campaign.

• Agitating not to vote for small political parties in order to accumulate all the votes.

Introducing the most creative advertisement campaign, producing millions of corporate

clothes, making big shows out of all outdoor meetings with the party leader.

ANTI FALSIFICATION TECHNOLOGIES

• Working out the technology of three level alternative vote count.

• Participation of more than 200 000 people (minimum 5 people at more than 33 000 polling stations)

• Changing all party representatives at regional electoral commissions (more than 200) a day before the elections to avoid the bribery.

Level 1. Operative phone calls from each polling station just after the preliminary count using special secret pass words and phone numbers available by scratching special cards.

Level 2. Sending to the quarters scanned voting result protocols by email.

Level 3. Bringing to the quarters original voting result protocols affixed by seals.

ALTERNATIVE THREE LEVEL VOTE COUNT

ALTERNATIVE THREE LEVEL VOTE COUNT ALLOWED:

• Obtaining all the data before the Central Electoral Commission

• Comparing the results on each stage on their way to the Central Electoral Commission

• Finding out the difference in numbers at each station and regional electoral commission

PARTY OF REGIONS OF UKRAINE - THE LOST WINNER

• Obtaining the first place

• Increasing the result in figures (32, 14% in 2006 versus 34,37% in 2007)

• Loosing 135 000 votes (mainly from core electorate)

• Loosing the power in the country, shift into the opposition.

OUR UKRAINE – PEOPLE’S SELF DEFENSE

• General rehearsal of Presidential elections

• Decreasing ratings of President Yuschenko and his political party “Our Ukraine”:

- frustration in Orange revolution ideals;

- series of loud corruption scandals;

- disappointment in President’s unconfident and flabby politics

ORANGE BLOCK STRATEGIC MOVES

• Uniting all the parties of Orange ideology into one mega block “Our Ukraine – Peoples’ Self Defense”.

ORANGE BLOCK STRATEGIC MOVES

• Cleaning up the list of candidates from scandal personalities. Promoting young and fair politicians.

ORANGE BLOCK STRATEGIC MOVES

• Open presidential agitation. Using the image of President on advertisement materials

ELECTIONS RESULTS

• Total seats in Parliament – 450• BYuT + “Our Ukraine” = 228

Party (Block) Graph%

FORSeats

1 Party Of Regions

34.37 175

2 Yulia Tymoshenko’s Block

30.71 156

3 Our Ukraine – People’s Self Defense

14.15 72

4 Communist Party of Ukraine

5.39 27

5 Lytvyn’s Block 3.96 20

• BYuT – the first party in Ukraine that has ever overcome 3% threshold in all administrative regions.

• Obtaining victory in 16 (out of 27) regions.

• President Yuschenko lost the leadership of democratic forces. Tymoshenko can be truly called an Orange wing leader.

ELECTIONS RESULTS

Sebastopol

Kyiv

CONCLUSIONS• Psycho-semantic

research gave unique information about the ways of electoral zones catching and splitting up.

• High technology campaign is breaking high budget campaigns.

• People choose personality and charisma. Faceless and multifaced campaigns didn’t work out.

IMAGE CONTACT CONSULTING GROUP

www.image-contact.ru

• The largest company in the field of political consulting and election campaigns.

• Conducted 400 election campaigns (jubilee campaign)

• Having experience in 70 regions of Russia and CIS countries

• Party “Our Home - Russia” 1995

• Eltsin Presidential campaign 1996 (Vote or Lose!)

• Russian Party “Unity” 1999

• Rose Revolution, Georgia 2003

• Orange Revolution, Ukraine 2004