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The Wealth of Networks:An Old Formula for Understanding
the New Global Information Economy
Version 1.0
March 16, 2005
Tom Vest
Research Program Manager
Packet Clearing House
http://www.pch.net
tvest@pch.net
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Roadmap
1. NormativeWhats important? What should we pay attention to?
2. DeductiveConnecting priorities to observable phenomena
3. EmpiricalData collection, interpretation, caveats!
4. SpeculativeHow are things changing? Where are we headed?
5. PrescriptiveWhat can we / should we do about it?
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Roadmap
1. NormativeWhats important?
What should we pay attention to?
2. DeductiveConnecting priorities toobservable phenomena
3. EmpiricalData collection,interpretation, caveats
4. SpeculativeWhat makes the Internet grow?How are things changing?Where are we headed?
5. PrescriptiveWhat can we / shouldwe do about it?
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Roadmap
1. NormativeWhats important?
What should we pay attention to?
2. DeductiveConnecting priorities toobservable phenomena
3. EmpiricalData collection,interpretation, caveats
4. SpeculativeWhat makes the Internet grow?How are things changing?Where are we headed?
5. PrescriptiveWhat can we / shouldwe do about it?
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What (who) is the Internet good for?! Questions of sovereignty and national interests
! Maximizing net international settlement revenues collectedby the national operator/regulator/government
! Voice telecom - FCC Benchmark Settlements, 1996-1997
! Internet - ICAIS (International Charging Arrangements for InternetServices), 1997-present
! Minimizing national dependence on / vulnerability toforeign Internet exposure, control
! National-level content management (China, Saudi Arabia, etc.),1994-present
! WSIS - Internationalization of core technical management functions,e.g., root DNS zone management, IP address allocation
! Insusceptible to empirical argument, except when related
to
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What (who) is the Internet good for?
! Questions of economic distribution, development,outcomes -- Digital Divide issues -- e.g. how many
! Users(U1):access, subscribers, irregular users eyeballs! Uses(U2):information, online services, e-(stuff) content
! U1 +U2= Internet resources, Internet capital
! Usage(U3):qualitative dimension, manifested by time online
! National and international policy advocacy often justifiedas instrumental, toward these ends
! Global scope, empirical, time-series answers are available,at least from 1997-present
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Roadmap
1. NormativeWhats important?
What should we pay attention to?
2. DeductiveConnecting priorities toobservable phenomena
3. EmpiricalData collection,interpretation, caveats
4. SpeculativeWhat makes the Internet grow?How are things changing?Where are we headed?
5. PrescriptiveWhat can we / shouldwe do about it?
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Where to find (U1, U2, U3) on the Internet?
! Eyeballs and content -- interchangeable terms forthe sources and destinations of Internet traffic, i.e., IProutes, routedIP addresses.
! Eyeballsmore closelyassociated with
! Inbound network traffic
! Dynamic IP addressing
! Absolute quantity of IP driven by peak simultaneous usage, whichvaries as users, usage (Internet value) changes
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Where to find (U1, U2, U3) on the Internet?
! Eyeballs and content -- interchangeable terms forthe sources and destinations of Internet traffic, i.e., IProutes, routedIP addresses.
! Contentmore closelyassociated with
! Outbound traffic
! Static IP addressing
! Absolute quantity of IP primarily driven by diversity of contentsources, to a lesser degree by peak simultaneous demandforeach source, which varies with popularity, content format, etc.
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Where to find (Internet resources) ?
+ + eScaling factors
Policy era-specific factors
Slack / inefficiency
IP addresses injectedinto the routing tableby an individual network
=
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Where to count (Internet resources) ?
e
e
e
Each router connectedto the Internetmaintains a local viewof paths leading to
every Internet resource
Each of those viewsmay vary substantiallyin almost every
possible way -- exceptone:
All will share a commonview of the network oforigination for each
Internet resource*
?
?
?
?
ROUTER
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1,026,757,820
1,204,350,873
1,334,408,540
1,305,962,352
1,057,646,916
1,395,036,652
1,058,866,124
1,000,000,000
1,100,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,300,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,500,000,000
1,600,000,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
OrigIP
IP/ASN (10k)
Global Accumulation of Internet ResourcesRouted IP addresses
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Network engineering/management &Internet resources! Consistent with the logic of RIR IP allocation policies
! Approved application for new IP == officially validated forecast of expectedequivalent growth in U1,U2, and/orU3
! Host Density (HD) ratio research (e.g., RFCs 1715, 3194;ARIN 2004-02)
! Operator-level acknowledgement that IP address utilization has apredictable, scale-sensitive relationship to U1,U2, andU3
! Also provides rule of thumb for estimating size of interiornetworkelements
! Linkage of eyeballs and content with IP addressesconsidered by some a major Internet design flaw!
! Semantic overloading of IP addresses, each of which simultaneouslyrepresents:
! A discrete element (interface, process, etc.) within a network topology
! A unique source/destination for TCP/IP traffic
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IP addresses as Internet Resourceswhos been keeping account?
! University of Oregon Route Views Project
!Centralized collection of global routing table snapshots from multiplevantage points, 1997-present
! Packet Clearing House
! Local capture of more specific routing table views from 30+ InternetExchange Points around the world
! Tony Bates, Philip Smith, Geoff Huston, CAIDA
! Focus on scarce protocol resource husbandry, efficiency of routeaggregation, bogon detection/remediation
! CAIDA IPv4 BGP Geopolitical Analysis
! Single snapshot of international distribution of Internet resources,June 11, 2001
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Roadmap
1. NormativeWhats important?
What should we pay attention to?
2. DeductiveConnecting priorities toobservable phenomena
3. EmpiricalData collection,interpretation, caveats!
4. SpeculativeWhat makes the Internet grow?How are things changing?Where are we headed?
5. PrescriptiveWhat can we / shouldwe do about it?
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IP addresses == Internet resourcesso what?
! Each IP address is uniquely associatedwith a specificadministrative network (Autonomous System or AS), the
one which injectsit into the Internet! Enterprise-level trends, comparisons
! Injection of new ASes, represented by unique AS Numbers(ASNs)
! Emergence of new enterprises -> changing market structure, marketconcentration
! Going one step further, individual ISPs (represented by 1+ASNs) can be mapped onto national jurisdictions viawhois; measurement possible at the national level
! National-level trends, comparisons
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Where are (Internet resources)produced?
e
e
e
?
?
?
?
Router
Autonomous Systemwith the unique number x
ASx
Autonomous System(AS)Autonomous System(AS)
Hardware and networkHardware and network
elements integrated intoelements integrated intoa unique logical groupinga unique logical groupingcontrolled by a specificcontrolled by a specificadministrative authorityadministrative authority
Logically distinct evenLogically distinct even
when physicallywhen physicallyoverlapping;overlapping; spatialspatialintersection does notintersection does notguarantee logicalguarantee logicalinterconnectioninterconnection
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OrigIP
1,026,757,820
1,204,350,873
1,334,408,540
1,305,962,352
1,058,866,124
1,395,036,652
1,057,646,916
1,000,000,000
1,100,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,300,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,500,000,000
1,600,000,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
OrigIP
Distribution of Internet resource production:Global market structure
Routed IP addresses
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1,026,757,820
1,204,350,873
1,334,408,540
1,305,962,352
1,058,866,124
1,395,036,652
1,057,646,916
2,958
4,168
6,016
8,972
11,966
13,999
16,105
1,000,000,000
1,100,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,300,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,500,000,000
1,600,000,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
OrigIP
OrigASNsRouted AS Numbers (ASNs)Routed IP addresses
Distribution of Internet resource production:Global market structure
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1,026,757,820
1,204,350,873
1,334,408,540
1,305,962,352
1,058,866,124
1,395,036,652
1,057,646,916
3,471
2,958
4,168
6,016
8,972
11,966
13,999
16,105
1,760
2,538
1,3421,115 933 866
1,000,000,000
1,100,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,300,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,500,000,000
1,600,000,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
OrigIP
IP/ASN (10k)
OrigASNs
Increasingdecentralization,specialization
Distribution of Internet resource production:Global market structure
Routed AS Numbers (ASNs)
Routed IP addresses
Global average, IP/ASN (000)
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1,026,757,820
1,204,350,873
1,334,408,540
1,305,962,352
1,057,646,916
1,395,036,652
1,058,866,124
3,471
2,958
4,168
6,016
8,972
11,966
13,999
16,105
8669331,115
1,342
2,538
1,760
1,000,000,000
1,100,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,300,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,500,000,000
1,600,000,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000OrigIP
IP/ASN (10k)
OrigASNs
IP/ASN, US (10k)
IP/ASN, CN (10k)
but not everywhere, uniformly
Increasingdecentralization,specialization
Distribution of Internet resource production:Divergingnational market structuresRouted AS Numbers (ASNs)
Routed IP addresses
Global average, IP/ASN (000)
Average, USAverage, China
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Distribution of Internet resource accumulation
2,5002,4302,4842,163
1,8221,9031,934
8,503
8,0078,370
7,833
7,1747,0617,175
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Singapore
India
South Africa
Hongkong
Brazil
France
Korea
Australia
United
KingdomChina
Germany
Japan
United States
Rest of the
world
10,267
10,576
10,588
12,043
13,34413,059
13,950Routed IP addresses (000)
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166265
276290
151
21881
124332
163142
17595
115
550496
1,195832
328
296
326
189
170220
126
566
1,328
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
United States
Rest of the world
Singapore
India
South Africa
Hongkong
Brazil
France
Korea
Australia
United Kingdom
China
Germany
Japan
Distribution of Internet resource productionsince 1998
308 321
1,776
3,076
2,792
3,682New routed IP addresses (000)
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IP addresses == Internet resourcesso why focus on ASNs?
! ASN-level Whois is moreaccurate
! Based on original IP allocation applications - much more complete andsubstantially more accurate that assignment-related (customerdelegation) whois
! Susceptible to continuing improvement - existing and proposedmechanisms for ongoing correction
! Public disclosure - no network operator-level level privacy expectation toimpede collection, publication
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IP addresses == Internet resourcesso why focus on ASNs?
! ASNs define the operational ontology of the Internet today
! Tremendous diversity in internal structures, protocols, resources, policies(RFC 827) -- but each interacting with all others exclusively through acommon protocol (BGP4) with relativelylimited/stable features
! Not unlike sovereign nation states: absolute authority within -- even ifless than absolute enforcement power -- plus anarchyin external affairs
! Autonomous systems all functionally equivalent, but some moreequivalent than others
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IP addresses == Internet resourcesso why focus on ASNs?
! ASNs define the commercial ontology of the Internet today
! Individual and enterprise customer Internet resources generate IP traffic-costs and benefits for their network-operating network providers
! Compensated and settlement-free interconnection relationships (i.e.,peeringand IP transit) are relationships between Autonomous Systems
! Caveat: a few large ISPs (and a few national regulators) administer manyASNs as part of unified Autonomous Routing Domains
! Internetwork strategy, competition == struggle to secureinternal resources, customers and external relationshipsto min/max traffic costs/benefits
! If IP resources == Internet production, AutonomousSystems are the producers
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Distribution of Internet resource production:National market diversificationWorld
United States
Germany
United Kingdom
Australia
France
Japan
Korea
Hong Kong
Brazil
China
India
Singapore
South Africa
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1,500
3,500
5,500
7,500
9,500
1,500
3,500
5,500
7,500
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031,500
18,500
1,528
2,9587,607
16,105
ASNs by country of administration
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Distribution of Internet resource production:National market concentration
China
Japan
Korea
South Africa
Australia
United States
Germany
Brazil
World Average
United Kingdom
France
India
Singapore
Hong Kong
National average IP/ASN (000)
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IP addresses == Internet resourcesso why focus on ASNs?
! ASNs represent a natural point of intersection betweenunderlying telecommunications infrastructure (Layer1,2)
and the Internets logical layer (Layer3)! ASNs enable integration of diverse, possibly geographically distributed
infrastructure segments into a single logical system
! Key qualification for securing use of an ASN is need and meanstoconnect to at least two other logical networksusually implies the use ofpoint-to-point telecommunications infrastructure (e.g., circuits, etc.)
! Focusing on this point of intersection between telecomand Internet provides foundation for dialogue betweenBellheads and Netheads, and an empirical basis fortailoring Digital Divide corrective policies
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Packets abhor a vacuum!
e
e
e
Like everycommunications system,Internet traffic requires a
physical transmissionmedium
Today, this medium isalmost exclusivelyterrestrial -- copper,coax, and fiber -- inalmost every economy
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Linking logical Internet networks tophysical telecom infrastructure
e
e
e
Copper & coaxial cableUsed in territorial accessnetworks reaching most/all homes
and businesses in developedcountries
Optical multiplexing efficiencygains since 1990: 103% maybe
More than 2,000,000,000 milesdeployed in the US alone!
Optical FiberUsed extensively for carrying highvolume traffic over long distances
n00,000,000 miles deployed globally
(much in 16 to 96-strand cables)Optical multiplexing efficiency gainssince 1990: 106% and rising
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1
10
100
1,000
10,000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
Does Infrastructure Determine IP Resources?
China
UnitedStates
Japan
Germany
India
Brazil
Russia
UnitedKingdom
France
Italy
Korea
Canada
Turkey
Spain
Mexico
Iran
Taiwan,
China
Poland
Ukraine
Australia
Netherlands
Colombia
Egypt
Indonesia
Argentina
Thailand
Sweden
Switzerland
Greece
Belgium
SouthAfrica
Malaysia
VietNam
Romania
Portugal
Pakistan
Austria
Hongkong
C
zechRepublic
Denmark
Hungary
SaudiArabia
Philippines
Norway
Chile
Belarus
Israel
Bulgaria
Venezuela
Yugoslavia
Main Lines
Deployed (m)
Routed IP
Addresses (100k)By originating AS
1: 1 Ratio
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1
10
100
1,000
10,000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
Provider Diversity and IP Resources:Natl Telecom Infrastructure vs. Internet Production
China
UnitedStates
Japan
Germany
India
Brazil
Russia
UnitedKingdom
France
Italy
Korea
Canada
Turkey
Spain
Mexico
Iran
Taiwan,
China
Poland
Ukraine
Australia
Netherlands
Colombia
Egypt
Indonesia
Argentina
Thailand
Sweden
Switzerland
Greece
Belgium
SouthAfrica
Malaysia
VietNam
Romania
Portugal
Pakistan
Austria
Hongkong
C
zechRepublic
Denmark
Hungary
SaudiArabia
Philippines
Norway
Chile
Belarus
Israel
Bulgaria
Venezuela
Yugoslavia
Network
OperatorsOriginating ASNs
Main Lines
Deployed (m)
Routed IP
Addresses (100k)By originating AS
1: 1 Ratio
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Provider Diversity and IP Resources:Number of Routed IP Addresses per DS0 Main Line
0.01
0.10
1.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2003200220012000199919981997
0.1
1.0
10
4.68
3.24
1.79
0.9-1.4
0.45
0.24
0.14
0.07
4.16
1.90
1.50
.03-0.6
0.08
0.06
0.02
1.37
United States
Australia
Hong Kong
World Average
South Africa
Singapore
Germany
Japan
United Kingdom
Korea
France
Brazil
China
India
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Linking logical Internet networks tophysical telecom infrastructure
e
e
e
National and internationalNational and internationalregulatory authorities haveregulatory authorities havebeen counting physicalbeen counting physicalcommunications systems forcommunications systems fora long time, and publishinga long time, and publishingthe resultsthe resultsinformation aboutinformation about(and by whom) infrastructure(and by whom) infrastructurecan be used for Internetcan be used for Internetservice delivery is much moreservice delivery is much moreobscureobscure
Unlike these nationalUnlike these nationaltelecommunications systems,telecommunications systems,today the built Internet is nottoday the built Internet is notexplicitly bounded by nationalexplicitly bounded by nationaljurisdiction, there are only ajurisdiction, there are only afew different real-worldfew different real-world
pairingspairings
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Domestic operators onlyNo foreign entrant ISP
Domestic cross-border operatorsNo foreign entrant ISP
Domestic cross-border operatorsplus foreign entrant ISPs
Domestic operators onlyplus foreign entrant ISPs
Case Construction for relatinginfrastructure to logical networks
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Case Construction for relatinginfrastructure to logical networks1. LDCs, New network economies
2. China (et al.?)
3. Some post-colonial economies
4. OECD countries
Domestic operators onlyNo foreign entrant ISP
Domestic cross-border operatorsNo foreign entrant ISP
Domestic cross-border operatorsplus foreign entrant ISPs
Domestic operators onlyplus foreign entrant ISPs
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Roadmap
1. NormativeWhats important?
What should we pay attention to?
2. DeductiveConnecting priorities toobservable phenomena
3. EmpiricalData collection,interpretation, caveats
4. SpeculativeWhat makes the Internet grow?How are things changing?Where are we headed?
5. PrescriptiveWhat can we / shouldwe do about it?
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Linking logical Internet networks tophysical telecom infrastructure! The Wealth of Nations
The annual labour of every nation is the fund which originallysupplies it with all the necessaries and conveniences of life which
it annually consumes, and which consist always either in theimmediate produce of that labour, or in what is purchased withthat produce from other nations.
!The Wealth of Networks
The Internet production of all networks is the fund which originallypresents each Internet user with information resourceconsumption possibilities, and which consist always either inlocal Internet production, or in what can purchased byinterconnecting with other networks.
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! Statistical Multiplexing -- a single link-level phenomenon;What makes packet-based communications more efficientthan switched circuit communicationsInterleaving the data input of two or more devices on a single channel oraccess line for transmission through a network. In statistical multiplexing, achannel is assigned to a device only when that device has data to send orreceive.
! Logical Multiplexing -- a system-level phenomenon;
What makes infrastructure sharing more efficient that purefacilities-based communicationsInterleaving the data input of two or more (logical networks) on a single(transport infrastructure). In logical multiplexing, partial/simultaneousbeneficial control of infrastructure enables multiple logical systems to extractmaximum utility from the shared infrastructure platform.
How Are Multiple Providers Important?
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Case Group 1: LDCs
! Interaction Model:Routed IP = mainlines + networks (ASNs) + (lines * networks)
! 62/63* developing countries that came online after 1997;this test set minimizes cross-border (Tier One) effects, aswell as legacy IP allocation-related measurementchallenges. Saudi Arabia eventually omitted.*
! Panel data for six years, 1998-2003 -- 228 observationscoupling routing table summary data for each November1st early AM with ITU annual telecom developmentindicators.
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0.974
0.544
0.449
0.790
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
10m
20m
30m
40m
50m
60m
70m
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 20030.0670.024
0.199
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
US RBOC: BellSouth
US RBOC: Qwest
US RBOC: SBC
US RBOC: Verizon
10m
20m
30m
40m
50m
60m
70m
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
National Market: Germany
National Market: Italy
National Market: France
National Market: Spain
Case Group 4: OECD Operators
Main Lines
In service
Internet Resources*
(Routed IP addresses)
Left
Axis
IP/Line
Ratio
Right
Axis
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RBOCs vs. Continental Europe (CE)
! Comparison potentially useful in three ways! Access networks of similar size, scope; very different at the IP layer
!Major differences in domestic market structure, international assets
! Recent US telecom policy developments might result in RBOCs looking
more like CE markets over time; are there any lessons?
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0.974
0.544
0.449
0.790
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1 2 3 4 5
0.01
0.1
1
10
10m
20m
30m
40m
50m
60m
70m
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.40.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
0.010
0.100
1.000
10.000
0.0670.024
0.199
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
RBOCs vs. Continental Europe
BellSouthQwest
SBCVerizon
Continental Europe All
.01
0.1
1.0
10
200m
400m
600m
800m
1.0b
US RBOCs
US All
3.914.68
0.301
0.119
717m
850m
48m 15m
10m
20m
30m
40m
50m
60m
70m
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.40.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
200m
400m
600m
800m
1.0b
.01
0.1
1.0
10
56m 99m
0.4470.745
160m128m 125m 132m
Germany
Italy
France
Spain
Main Lines
In service
Internet Resources*
(Routed IP addresses)
Left
Axis
IP/Line
Ratio
Right
Axis
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!In the US, whole is greater than the sum of its parts!US RBOCs are pieces in a larger, national/global infrastructure system
!US system has fostered logical multiplexing at several levels:
! National-level infrastructure sharing since 1966 (Computer I)
! Regional-level market sharing since 1984 (AT&T Breakup)
! Individual-level end user sharing since 1996 (Telecom Act)
RBOCs vs. Continental Europe
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!Logical multiplexing has enhanced contingentUS advantages:!Internet historical origins in the US
!History-driven, US-centric international infrastructure deployment
!Infrastructure-driven gains from outsourcing content to the US
!Content-driven gains that derive from the global use of English language
! The result: US continues to create 4x-5x more new networkenterprises than CE annually, and to produce 2x-10x more
Internet resources than CE networks every year since 1999
RBOCs vs. Continental Europe
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Roadmap
1. NormativeWhats important?
What should we pay attention to?
2. DeductiveConnecting priorities toobservable phenomena
3. EmpiricalData collection,interpretation, caveats
4. SpeculativeWhat makes the Internet grow?How are things changing?Where are we headed?
5. PrescriptiveWhat can we / shouldwe do about it?
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Implications of Provider Diversity Benefits
! Measures of provider diversity are useful adjuncts toempirical Internet analysis.
! Provider diversity confers positive effects which shouldbe measured against expected gains from potentiallyincompatible facilities-oriented policies.
! Policies and institutions that foster provider diversity(e.g., IXPs) can contribute to growth and localization ofInternet resources (users and content) that are theprimary objects of public interest claims about the Internet.
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More Policy Implications of This Research! Regional Internet Registries (RIRs) as Central Banks
! RIRs play a critical fiduciary role in legitimating providergrowth projections, in effect establishing a level playing fieldfor network operators worldwide. This role should be
strengthened. Allocation policies should be consistent andenforceable (IPv4 orIPv6), so that IP utilization maintains aconsistent, rational relationship to access and content growth.
! WHOIS: Essential Reporting Requirement for the GIE! Fixing ASN-level WHOIS information could help strengthen
the current inter-domain routing system as a vehicle forcommunicating value (announcements, traffic) in a diverse,insecure, multi-provider environment. It could also help tostrengthen BGP topology analysis (the method used herein) asa foundation for high-confidence, empirical policy research onthe Global Information Economy.
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! On the Global Distribution of IP Resources! Many national network economies, including some that havecomplained about the existing technical management system,currently directly or indirectly command more than enoughunique IP resources to persistently connect every one of their
telecom main lines to the Internet; claims of economic harmare difficult to reconcile with empirical record of substantialnetwork economy growth in someremedy-seeking countries
! On the Impending Exhaustion of IPv4 Resources!Apart from the unique US case, only a handful of nationalnetwork economies -- e.g., Australia, Canada, Korea, Japan,
Taiwan, etc. -- have exceeded a 1:1 routed IP per main lineratio. Current worldwide installed telecom capacity isapproximately 1.1 billion main lines; current global Internetproduction encompasses just under 1.4 billion routed IP
addresses, out of a possible 4.2 billion.* There is no shortage
More Policy Implications of This Research
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Roadmap
1. NormativeWhats important?
What should we pay attention to?
2. DeductiveConnecting priorities toobservable phenomena
3. EmpiricalData collection,interpretation, caveats
4. SpeculativeWhat makes the Internet grow?How are things changing?Where are we headed?
5. PrescriptiveWhat can we / shouldwe do about it?
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IP addresses == Internet Resourcescaveats(!) and limitations(!)
! Production-centric
! Globally distributed Internet resources supported by multinational ISPs
(e.g., NTT-Verio, MCI, BT, FTLD, etc.) all ascribed to country of UBO ratherthan country of deployment
! Diversity-centric
! Standard operational strategies for managing large host complexes willtend to flatten differences between very large content providers and theirmedium-sized counterparts
! Network-centric
! Impact of content producing network customers attributed to networkproviders until they build their own networks (e.g., Microsoft, Yahoo,Google, etc.)
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IP addresses == Internet Resourcescaveats(!) and limitations(!)
! Historically biased (in unmodified form)
! Significant technical and institutional changes in the mid-late 1990s
dramatically improved the efficiency of IP address utilization; oldnetworks appear inflated compared to new entrants
! Analyses that encompass the full routing table will be moredefensible if/when these historical changes are explicitlyrecognized (e.g., by depreciating old and unchanged networks)
! Public network-centric
! Global view of public IP resources ignores significant national,enterprise-level variations in use of non-routable private IP address(RFC 1918) space
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IP addresses == Internet Resourcescaveats(?) and limitations(?)
! Features, not bugs!! Analytical framework that emphasizes production over
consumption, diversity over scale, public interoperability overprivate segmentation will tend to reflect favorably on enterprisesand economies that produce more, support greater diversity, anddeliver more globally accessible Internet resources
!
Sensitivity to historical variations and non-networkcustomer segment factors -- areas for additional work
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Questions.Thanks!
Tom VestResearch Program Manager
Packet Clearing House
http://www.pch.net
tvest@pch.net
Special Thanks to:
Bill Woodcock
Randy Bush
Geoff Huston
Leo Vegoda
Jonathan Aronson
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