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Dr. Scott Rozelle of the Rural Education Action Project at Stanford University demonstrates that rigorous research and strong data can influence public policy in China at Give2Asia's 10th Anniversary Forum on Oct. 2, 2012.
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“Multiplying Impact:
How to Change the Lives of Millions by Investing in Thousands”
Scott Rozelle
Stanford University (Professor/Senior Fellow) Director, Rural Education Action Project
(REAP) &
Colleagues in the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Northwest University, and Others
Hourly Wages in the 1990s
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23.65 21.76
27.52
13.56
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2.63 4.09
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China US Japan EU Korea Australia Mexico Brazil
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China in late 1990s Park and Cai, 2008
Late 1990s to Today
The 1970s/Early 1980s
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Percent of Students Going to High School: South Korea in the 1970s/1980s
Kuan, 2011
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Large Cities in Korea
Rural Korea
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Mexico’s Story: Hourly Wages from 1975 to 1990
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Mexico in 1975
As would be expected, low-wage factories in Mexico shut down and
moved elsewhere in the world
0%
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100%
Large Cities in Mexico
Rural Mexico
A Key to Development: Education
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Large Cities in Korea
Rural Korea
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Mexico in the 1980s South Korea in the 1970s/1980s
Travel Warning U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE Bureau of Consular Affairs, Mexico
Mexico in Crisis
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200520062007200820092010
Foreign Direct Investment
in Mexico
Cartels & gangs
Violence
Unemployment
Is it inevitable that Developing Countries that are growing fast and achieve Middle
Income status always will continue to grow and become rich, industrialized nations?
• In fact, history is littered with a lot of wannabe OECD members: – Argentina … one of the four richest countries in
the world in the early 20th century … collapse and stagnation after WWII
– Uruguay / Iraq / Venezuela (in the 1960s & 70s) – MORE RECENTLY:
• Or … as we are seeing before our eyes: Mexico
≈ $2.00 / hour in 2010
Park and Cai, 2008 ≈ 50 ¢ / hour in 1978
Annual Real Hourly Unskilled Wage in
China (1978 dollars)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1978
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80
1982
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84
1986
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88
1990
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92
1994
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1998
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This is my auto mechanic … in Palo Alto …
Question: “Will these boys be able to do the jobs that need to be done in the future economy?”
None of these students have ever touched a computer or surfed the web
So: China’s real challenge is coming … and there are fundamental questions:
• Can China transform itself like: Taiwan / South Korea / Ireland / New Zealand
• Or è will China become a: Mexico / or / Argentina
China’s human capital problem is most severe in poor rural areas.
≈ 35% of school-aged children in poor rural areas
(> 50 million children in poor rural areas, ages 6 to 15)
cities
other rural
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83%
40%
0%
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Large Cities in China
Rural China
The High School Education Gap China in 2005
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Percent of students that go to High School
82%
42%
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100%
Large Cities in Mexico
Rural Mexico
83%
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Large Cities in China
Rural China
The High School Education Gap China in 2005 Mexico in the 1980s
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Percent of students that go to High School
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200520062007200820092010
Is China planting the seeds for a Mexico-like crisis in the future?
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Why are there these gaps?
• Why don’t rural students stay in school?
• There are many reasons … but, perhaps one of the most fundamental is:
poor health poor nutrition
If children are sick or malnourished, how can they learn?
REAP study (Luo et al., 2010) of 4000 students in rural Shaanxi Province
Students with anemia (39%) Students
without anemia (61%)
Luo, et al., 2010
REAP study of 4000 students in rural Shaanxi Province
Report to Center for Disease Control:
“There are Still High Rates of Anemia” è
Response: “It must be those guys from Shaanxi … they
have never had good diets …”
We went on to test nearly 40,000 additional children across China….
National Institute of Health & Pfizer Corp.
In fact, anemia is all over China
Luo, R., X. Wang, C. Liu, et al. (2011) “Alarmingly High Anemia Prevalence in Western China.” Southeast Asian Journal of Tropical Medicine and Public Health Vol. 42 No. 5
Total
Total 33.7 Shaanxi—2008 (Dataset 1) 37.5 Shanxi—2009a (Dataset 2) 31.6 Gansu—2010 (Dataset 3) 31.2 Qinghai—2009 (Dataset 4) 51.1 Ningxia—2009 (Dataset 5) 25.4 Sichuan—2010 (Dataset 6) 24.8 Guizhou—2010 (Dataset 7) 33.1
Poor areas of China
Children with anemia (≈ 33%)
Children with out
≈ 20 million school aged children are estimated to have anemia …
Which of these kids are sick? With a disease like iron-deficiency anemia, it is impossible to tell … there are no outward symptoms … this in part makes it truly a neglected disease
But, these two students were anemic … we know (from later work) that their IQ had dropped by 10 to 20 points because of this illness … They attended school 10 less days per year
Testing >25,000 children in Gansu and Shaanxi Provinces
myopic
normal vision
3680 (≈15%) were myopic (or nearsighted).
What happens when students cannot see …
• The chalk board? • Teachers’ illustrations? • The work of fellow students?
Testing > 25,000 children in Gansu and Shaanxi Provinces
myopic
normal vision
3680 (≈15%) were myopic (or nearsighted).
Only 142 had eyeglasses
Academic performance suffers
Chinese Math English Average Nearsighted students -0.174***
(0.055) -0.109* (0.056)
-0.179*** (0.061)
-0.182** (0.059)
Other covariates yes yes yes yes
Treatment Township (τ) -0.053
(0.069) -0.070 (0.071)
0.078
(0.077) -0.018
(0.075)
Poor Vision×Treatment Township (β)
0.024 (0.047)
-0.087
(0.067) -0.065 (0.046)
-0.050 (0.053)
As you can see, holding all things constant, children that can not see well, perform worse! They should be 80+, but, they are <75 points.
THE SCOURGE WITHIN:INTESTINAL WORMS IN RURAL CHINA
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Center for Disease Control, Shanghai
Stanford University (with support of Asia Health Care Initiative funding) + Rural Education Action Program’s Advisory Board
SURVEY SITES
Total 1701 children • 8 students/village (8-10 years old/grades 3-4) • 8 children/village (3-5 years old, pre-school)
Incidence of Intestinal Worms, Guizhou Province, 2010
3 to 5 year olds 8 to 10 year olds
34% with worms
40% with worms
Without Without
Zhang et al., 2011
… millions of children are infested with these …
Response by Ministries
• Mostly: silence • Why?
– MOE: “What does health and nutrition have to do with education?”
– MOH: “We know this / tell us what to do about it …”
Response by the NGO community
• Lots of: Action
Building Schools … Giving scholarships … Migrant community centers … Teacher training … Improved cook stoves … Giving out Embrace sleeping bags … Empowering women … Raising awareness of minorities … and more …
But no matter how many: • Dell’s … providing 100s of computers …
• Starbuck’s … training 1,000s of teachers …
• CDYF’s … building 10,000s of schools …
• Zigen’s … teaching 100,000s of migrant children …
• Ford Foundation’s … giving 1,000,000s in scholarships …
• Give2Asia’s … organize / facilitate >$10,000,000 in grants and program aid!
There are still: • 50,000,000 children more without computers …
• 5,000,000 migrant children in inferior schools without health care …
• 500,000 teachers that lack training …
• 50,000 schools with no libraries or IT programs or livable dorms
• UNCOUNTABLE NEEDS … for all of the donors in one Give2Asia or 100 Give2Asias
There are still: • 50,000,000 children more without computers …
• 5,000,000 migrant children in inferior schools without health care …
• 500,000 teachers that lack training …
• 50,000 schools with no libraries or IT programs or livable dorms
• UNCOUNTABLE NEEDS … for all of the donors in one Give2Asia or 100 Give2Asias
The basic truth (we believe) is:
• The ultimate goal of philanthropy in China today … “should be” to show something works on 1000 kids … show how to do it more effectively … get the government to buy into the program … and let them upscale … and have an impact on 1,000,000 kids … or more!
Despite what you hear about corruption today, the basic fact is true:
The government has fiscal resources … The government is looking for good projects that will further China’s development … Government officials benefit personally from being identified with SUCCESS …
The need for “Action Research” or Social Experimentation with
Chinese Characteristics! • Seeing is believing …
• Show the effect of treatment on China …
• Experiment with different ways of treating … compare efficacy / cost …
è To gain policy traction …
The Rural Education Action Project is a Research Organization/NGO/Government
Organization/Policy Action partnership Collaborators in China At Stanford University
We are committed to finding solutions to the help bridge the
gap … cost effective … scalable … efficient solutions
Our Vision
Help brian
To understand the barriers keeping the rural poor from closing the gap and learn what can be done
REAP works in two ways
1. REAP designs and implements new program interventions and conducts the evaluations
2. REAP partners with NGOs and government agencies who are trying to implement projects – REAP advises – They carry out – REAP evaluates
We call this “action research”
REAP partners
REAP partners
Academic organizations
Corporations (CSR groups)
Foundations
Individuals
Competitive Grant-making Agencies
US and other foreign companies
[Some] Chinese companies
REAP partners
One of our KEY partners
REAP partners
REAP Experiments (Projects) in China’s Poor Rural Areas (and
Migrant Communities)
REAP’s Three “Action Platforms”
Keeping Kids in School Technology and Human Capital
Health, Nutrition and Education
So what is the key to “action research”?
Two things:
1. The rigorous / but simple way that we demonstrate IMPACT …
2. Our commitment to scaling up … through engagement in policy …
These are also the two sources of engagement with our other set of partners … the government!!
An illustration:
How “action research” works!
The FIRST anti-anemia intervention: October, 2008 – June, 2009
The NGO wanted to work in schools in Shaanxi … REAP “figured out” they needed to “work” in 30 schools (to be able to be certain that their program could show an effect) … So we pick 60 schools of the type they wanted …
*
The NGO wanted to work in schools in Shaanxi … REAP “figured out” they needed to “work” in 30 schools (to be able to be certain that their program could show an effect) … So we pick 60 schools of the type they wanted …
Before the project was launched by the NGO …
REAP went to 60 schools …
And collected baseline information
(again: BEFORE the NGO ever visited the schools)
Using Hemocue 201+ technology gives Hb levels in 45 seconds (Oct. 2008)
Baseline TIMMS test (October 2008)
All fourth grade students
Randomly Choose the Treatment Schools and Control Schools
But, do it over and over until:
Pre-balanced at the baseline between 30 Treatment (T) Schools &
30 Control (C) Schools
0
5
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25
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35
40
45
Hb levels AnemiaRates
TestScores
T T C T C C
122.1 122.3 39.8 38.7 72.3 73.1
*
Locations of sample schools in Shaanxi Province
( ) Treatment Schools
( ) Control Schools
Therefore, after the intervention, we can interpret any differences to the outcome variables (Hb levels, anemia, test scores) to be due to the intervention
Prebalancing ensures that schools in treatment groups and schools in control groups are statistically identical prior to
the intervention (like identical twins)
Treated schools
Control schools
School Type A (30 schools)
“Vitamin / Day”
Give students one over the counter multi-vitamin with iron per day (5 mg of iron) … from November 2008 to May 2009
(≈4 US cents/day)
The Intervention
30 control schools
Zero: no vitamins
Using Hemocue 201+ technology gives Hb levels in 45 seconds (Oct. 2008)
Baseline TIMMS test (October 2008)
All fourth grade students
Impact of vitamin on students: Hemoglobin Points Anemia Rates (%)
Math Test Scores (std. dev.)
Is one result enough?
• It works in Shaanxi … … but does it work in Ningxia? • It works in an NGO project …
… but can it work “inside the system?” • What is the most effective way (time / cost)?
Other interventions
Intervention One: 1 egg/day + vitamin
Intervention Two
Vita Meal (vitamin-fortified porridge)
Supported by Nu-skin Cosmetic Company’s CSR group
Intervention Three
Chewable Vitamin per Day
Impact of vitamin supplementation on students
Hemoglobin Points Anemia Rates (%)
Math Test Scores (std. dev.) Win
Win
Win
Formal no)fica)on that there has been a “policy direc)ve” direc)ng MoEdu and MoHealth to move our informa)on into the policy discussion
Official policy brief (think of President Obama’s desk and the desks of his cabinet members)
And policy making circles …
Policy Action—Central Government In 2009 è direct MoE to begin a plan to put
nutrition into the school system …
Wen Jiabao: Premiere
Liu Yandong: Standing Committee member (education)
Li Keqiang: Vice Premiere
(for health)
“Necessary But Not Sufficient”
Challenges of Working with (Local/regional) Policy Makers for
Implementation
An Example: • We say “give vitamins” / local policy
makers give eggs
This has happened twice:
Shaanxi in 2009-10
Ningxia in 2010-11
Do eggs have any impact?
Does one egg per day, improve test scores / attendance?
25 elementary schools in Gansu 25 elementary schools in Gansu
One Egg Per Day No intervention.
So what is the result?
Impact of Eggs on Hb Levels …
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
Control One Egg/Day Chewable Vitamin
Standard deviations
No impact … as expected!
Impact of Eggs on Test Scores …
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
Control One Egg/Day Chewable Vitamin
Standard deviations
No impact on test scores… either!
Conclusion for egg study:
• NO: it is NOT that eggs are bad for you … – In fact: kids liked it … teachers liked it … parents liked – The “satisfaction” of stakeholders in “egg schools”
were higher than in “vitamin schools”
• But, the problem is that eggs do not address one of
the fundamental problems of rural children in the poor areas of Northwest China: iron-deficiency anemia
While we are discovering what works and what does not work …
The State Council moves …
Oct. 30, 2011 China’s new nutrition program: -- 16 billion yuan [$US 2 billion dollars] to put nutrition into schools in rural China [or 20 billion US dollars over 10 years] [equals about 3 yuan / student / day …]
An Example:
Treating 40,000 students through philanthropy è
Turned into nutritious lunches for 20,000,000 million
[Many groups helped in the “action research” …. CDRF / CDC / and: REAP]
There are many low cost, effective solutions beyond reducing anemia
• Vitamin / day è 0.2 yuan per day • Deworming è 1-2 yuan per year • Eyeglasses è 80 yuan per year
(< 0.10 yuan per day)
• Early Childhood Education • Computer room + Software + Teacher training
– One PC Tablet per Child • Conditional cash transfers for junior high
students
What if China can not overcome the [BIG] human capital challenge?
• If human capital does not rise, will China stop growing?
• What happens if there are two distinct classes … haves and have nots … and China’s growth slows?
• What happens if there are: 100 million unemployed? 70 million unmarried?
There will only be two choices for the unemployed in China (they will NOT be able to cross the border into a neighboring rich country) … they will either seek employment in the informal economy OR seek refuge in organized crime [this is
NOT new in Chinese history]
15
20
25
30
200520062007200820092010
Is China planting the seeds for a Mexico-like crisis in the future?
We believe that the optimistic path is still possible because:
“There is exactly enough time
starting now”
106
One other keys the PEOPLE:
the Collaborations è Action Research …
– NGOs – Corporation CSR programs – Individual donors + – Action Research Organization/Partners
è Policy Collaboration … … with collaborations at all levels of government
Village doctors and school nurses
School principals
County officials
Provincial/ national leaders
Real objective è the kids!
• Not to change policy … for policy sakes …
• Not to run a good program … for the sake of running a good program …
• But, to impact the lives of the students in China … and their families …
for them … for their children … for China
Thank You!
http://reap.stanford.edu 123
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