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TSUNAMI READY PROGRAM. ZONAS SISMICAS Victor A. Hu é rfano. MAPA DE INUNDACION Aurelio Mercado. PR TWMP. Saving lives and property depends on how well the community is prepared. Bathymetry/Topographic data Population and Infrastructure. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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TSUNAMI READY PROGRAM
ZONAS SISMICAS Victor A. Huérfano
MAPA DE INUNDACION Aurelio Mercado
Numerical ModelingNumerical Data Base
Saving lives and property depends on how well the community is prepared
Historical ObservationsInstrumental Data Base
Bathymetry/Topographic dataPopulation and Infrastructure
Hypothetical Tsunami Scenarios (Seismology/Previous work)
Computer Simulations
Initial Conditions(Mansinha and Smylie)
Propagation and run up (TIME project, Shuto)
Alert System Worst Case ScenarioVulnerability
Real Time MonitoringForecastingObservations
Messages(Protocols)
Tsunami Hazard Planning Education and Outreach
PR TWMP
Observations
ZONAS SISMICAS Y SISMICIDAD LOCAL
BACKGROUND
Puerto Rico
Dominican Rep.
HaitiJamaica
Cuba
Virgin Islands
Lesser Antilles
Trinidad
PLATE BOUNDARIES
Cocos Plate
Caribbean Plate
South America Plate
North America Plate
Puerto Rico Trench
Muertos Trough
Anegada Passage
19ºN Fault Zone
Septentrional Fault MonaCanyon
17871670
1943
1867
1918
1946
186717 casualties
191840 (100) casualties
1946100 (1790) casualties
16922000 (???) casualties
1780300 (???) casualties
1842300 (???) casualties
1564
1770
Shepherd, et al, (1992)
1670 MM = VII, San Germán y San Juan
1787 M @7-8,MM = VII-VIII, Costa Norte, Este y Oeste
1867 M =7.3, MM = VIII, Islas Vírgenes, Tsunami 20’
1918 M = 7.3, MM = VIII, Área Oeste de PR, Tsunami 20’
1943 M = 7.5, MM = V, Noreste de Puerto Rico
Soufriere
Kick’em Jenny
EARTHQUAKES, TSUNAMIS and Active Volcanoes
MEDICIONES DE GPS Jansma, 2000
TSUNAMIS EN PUERTO RICO
Intensity H (m)
I-V < 1.0
VI 2.0
VII-VIII 4.0
IX-X 8.0
XI 16.0
XII 32.0
Puerto Rico Trench
Septentrional Fault Zone
Mona Canyon
Muertos Trough Anegada Passage
Sombrero Seismic Zone
19ºN Fault Zone
VI Basin
CARIBBEAN PLATE
PUERTO RICO
PLACAS TECTONICAS: Sismicidad Mundial
Clinton, Cua, Huèrfano, von Hillebrandt and Martinez (2006)
DISTRIBUCION LOCAL DE SISMICIDAD
Clinton, Cua, Huèrfano, von Hillebrandt and Martinez (2006)
(J. Joyce)
(ten Brink)
(P. Dillon)
PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS
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( Masson and Scanlon )
PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS
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( D. Larue )
PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS
PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS
(N. Grindlay )
PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS
(W. McCann )
ZONAS SISMICAS Y MODELAJE NUMERICO
PRT-ASegments: 24Maximum M: 8.0Recurrence T: 3800
PRT-BSegments: 27Maximum M: 8.0Recurrence T: 3800
19ºNSegments: 16Maximum M: 7.6Recurrence T: 3300
SOMBRERO SZSegments: 24Maximum M: 7.7Recurrence T: 1200
ANEGADA P.Segments: 28Maximum M: 7.7Recurrence T: 3700
LEEWARD LZ.Segments: 11Maximum M: 7.0Recurrence T: 3000
MUERTOS T.Segments: 28Maximum M: 7.7Recurrence T: 3700
SEPTENTRIONAL F.Segments: 14Maximum M: 7.8 (ref)Recurrence T: 1900
MONA CANYONSegments: 24Maximum M: 7.5Recurrence T: 2000
EASTERN DR.Segments: 9Maximum M: 7.2Recurrence T: 800
SOUTHWESTERN Segments: 36Maximum M: 6.6Recurrence T: 1800
NORTH PLATFORMSegments: 25Maximum M: 6.8Recurrence T: 2500
PUERTO RICO REGION
Faults: 102Segments: 268 Maximum M (Faults): 7.6Maximum M (Segments): 7.2Seismic Catalogue: 10031Waveform Catalogue: 3518Quakes used: 4422Depth: ≤ 50 kmOffshore SeismicityCompleteness: 3.2 Ml (Outside)
( Huérfano )
PR-TWMP Numerical Data Base
TSUNAMI GENERATION AND ATACK
GEOMETRY, SIZE and TIMING
HYPOCENTER
MALLAS UTILIZADAS EN LAS SIMULACIONES
A : 27 sec/arcB : 9 sec/arcC : 3 sec/arc
R5: Strike = 122Dip = 80Rake = 90Mw = 7.7
{Geometry
Size…….
TSUNAMIINUNDATION MAP
Yauco/Guayanilla, PR
TSUNAMIEVACUATION MAP
Guayanilla, PR
QUE PODEMOS HACER?
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