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Modeling Data
• What model runs will be available on the TSS?• How are data stored ?
– Scenarios/IMPROVE Species/Visibility Impacts?– Same Database/Parameters as Monitored data ?
• Model performance evaluation results?• What is best spatial/temporal resolution of data?• How to handle source apportionment results?
– PSAT, PMF• How to handle BART analysis and results?
Modeling Data
Model runs available on TSS• Base02a(b)
– Used in MPE; EI includes actual fires, CEM point data• Plan02b
– 2002 baseline; EI include typical fire, no CEM data • Base18a
– 2018 Future year base case
• 2018 Control Strategy Simulations• Sensitivity Simulations
Model simulation results stored/organized based on impacts on visibility by:– Source Categories– Species
Modeling Data
Modeled Data • Species mass
– Required: Sulfate, Nitrate, OC, EC, Fine soil, PMCoarse– Optional: PM2.5, O3, NO, NO2, CO, SO2, HNO3,
Others ?
• Visibility measures– Species extinction, Total extinction, Deciview
• Differences in:– Modeled parameters for a given year
• Base02 – Plan02; Strat18 – Base18; etc. – Modeled parameter for different years
• Base18 – Base02; Base18 – Plan02; etc.
Modeling Data
Modeled Data Storage and Formats
• Gridded data stored as ASCIIGRID formats:– One file each by modeled species/parameter and
scenario (including difference pairs) • Gridded data stored in GIS Shapefile formats:
– One file for each scenario (including difference pairs) • each includes all relevant species/parameters
• Modeled data parameters at monitoring sites– Species concentration data as used for MPE– Visibility measures at Class I monitoring sites
Modeling Data
Most Appropriate Spatial/Temporal Resolution
• Spatial Resolution– Gridded, surface layer (3D NetCDF files aggregated
vertically) – 36-km (12-km); National or WRAP region ??– Point data at IMPROVE monitors (interpolated from grid data
as used in MPE)
• Temporal Resolution– Gridded data: Annual; Seasonal; Monthly (?)– 20% Best/Worst days
Modeling Data Model Performance Evaluation• Performance measures to include:
– Time-series plots of measured and modeled species concentrations
– Scatter plots of model predictions vs. ambient data – Spatial plots with ambient data overlaid on model predictions– Bar plots comparing mean fractional bias (MFB) and/or mean
fractional error (MFE) – “Bugle plots” showing model performance variation as a function
of the PM species concentration– Stacked-bar plots of contributions to light extinction for the
average of the best-20% visibility days or the worst-20% visibility days at each site
Stacked-bar plots of contributions to light extinction for the average of the best-20% visibility days or the worst-20% visibility days at each site
Emissions Data
• What inventories will be available on the TSS?• How are data stored ?
– Scenarios/Species/Source Categories?– Same Database/Parameters as Monitored data?– GIS data layers?
• What is best spatial/temporal resolution of data?• What GIS Layers are available for display/query?• Where do the GIS layers reside? How are they
accessed?
Emissions Data
Emission inventories available on the TSS
• Base02a(b)• Plan02b• Base18b• Strat18a; Strat18b; etc…
Emissions Data
Source Categories• For each scenario provide data by:
• Major source categories:
Stationary Point; Area; On-road; Off-road; Biogenic
• Detailed source categories:
Point; Area; On-road; Off-road; Offshore area; Offshore point; Offshore shipping; Oil & Gas; Fugitive Dust; WB Dust; Road Dust; Fires (Point/Area; Wild/Prescribed/Ag/Wildland Use); Biogenic
Emissions Data Pollutants• For each source category include following species,
as appropriate:– NOx = NO + NO2– SO2– VOC = ALD2 + ETH + FORM + ISOP + OLE + PAR + TOL + XYL– NH3– PM2.5 (PMF)– PMCoarse = PM10 – PM2.5– OC– EC
• Do we want/need speciated VOCs?
Emissions Data Emission Data Storage and Formats
• Data stored as ASCIIGRID formats:– One file each by species, source category, scenario
• ~8 species X ~ (4-20) categories = ~32 – 160 files / scenario
• Data stored as GIS Shapefile formats:– One file for each source category, scenario
• 4 – 20 files/scenario (each includes all relevant pollutants)
• Data stored in other formats? (i.e., county-level data)
Emissions Data Most Appropriate Spatial/Temporal Resolution
• Spatial Resolution– Surface layer (3D NetCDF files aggregated
vertically) – Gridded – 36-km; (12-km??)– County-level – from SMOKE data files
• IDA (input); SMOKE reports (output)
• Temporal Resolution– Annual; Seasonal; Monthly (?)– How to handle fire emissions ??
Emissions Data GIS Data Layers• GIS EI data layers for display/query
– See ArcIMS demo• Contextual Data
– Administrative Boundaries• State/County/Tribal• Class I Area• National/State Parks and Forests
– Transportation Networks– Place Names– Landuse/Landcover
• GIS data storage and access– GIS data layers stored in ArcIMS– ASCII data stored at CIRA (??)
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