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Trends & Patterns of Land Use Change and International Aid in Sub-Saharan Africa Ephraim Nkonya
Jawoo Koo
Edward Kato
Zhe Guo
International Food Policy Research Institute
SSA – world’s future breadbasket
• While crop yield gaps in other regions has narrowed leading to reduced food production from yield increase, yield gap is SSA is the widest
• About 90% of the remaining 1.8 billion ha of global arable land in developing countries is in LAC and SSA (Bruinsma 2009)
• Recent land grabbing attests to SSA’s future BB role – 66% of 234 million ha acquired by foreign investors came from SSA (Anseeuw, et al 2012)
• But challenges limiting high agricultural productivity in SSA need to be addressed to tap its large potential
SSA’s pattern of land use & its relationship with international aid
• ODA support as % of GDP of recipient country is highest in countries with largest cropland expansion
High deforestation Medium-Low deforestation Forest area increase
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
aid as % of GDP, 1985-95 Deforestation rate, 2001-10 cropland change, 2001-10
Cropland area expansion has predominantly replaced intact forest
East Africa Central Africa West Africa0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Sources of cropland area expansion in SSA, 1980-2000
intact forest Disturbed forest
Sour
ce o
f agr
icul
tura
l lan
d ex
-pa
nsio
n, %
Botswana & DRC offer important lessons for cropland use change in SSA
Botswana DRC
SSACarbon density (tons/ha) 3.83 65.59 18.03Freshwater (m3/capita) 2010 6.87 20.40 7.05
GDP per capita current US$ 2010 7426.63 198.71 1337.58Logistics Performance index 2.82 1.27 2.29Government effectiveness 0.42 -1.25 -0.68R&D expenditure as % of Ag GDP 4.0 - 0.6Aid as % of GDP (avg 1991-2010) 1.05 19.08 2.86
What drives Botswana to attaining such favorable outcomes with ltd resources and DRC to poor outcomes while it is endowed with abundant natural resources?
Major drivers of cropland extent & implications
Impact on cropland area
Implications
Ag R&D ↓,↑ More investment in R&D to tap SSA large potential
International aid ↑,↓ More aid required in land based sectors to reach threshold
Access to roads ↑ Road improvement should be accompanied with enhancing environmental regulations
Population density ↑,↓ Boserupian induced intensification
Agricultural export ↓ Remunerative prices enhance intensification
Gov’t effectiveness ↑ Increase capacity of gov’t effectiveness to level to prevent deforestation
Land tenure security ↓ Land security enhances intensification
Poverty & population density
↑ Target dev’t programs to rural poor to increase intensification
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