Toward a Classification of Ready-to- eat Foods According ... · Toward a Classification of...

Toward a Classification of Ready-to-eat Foods According to Risk or Other

Uses of Risk Assessment inManaging risk

Richard C. WhitingCenter for Food Safety and AppliedNutritionFood and Drug Administration

Cluster 4Cultured Milk Products

Ice Cream and Frozen Dairy ProductsProcessed Cheese

Hard Cheese

Cluster 3Deli-type Salads

Dry/Semi-dry Fermented SausagesFresh Soft Cheese

Frankfurters, reheatedFruits

Preserved FishRaw Seafood

Semi-soft CheeseSoft Ripened Cheese

Vegetables

Cluster 2Cooked RTE Crustaceans

High Fat and Other Dairy ProductsPasteurized Fluid MilkSoft Unripened Cheese

Cluster 1Deli Meats

Frankfurters, not reheatedPâté and Meat SpreadsUnpasteurized Fluid Milk

Smoked Seafood

Risk per Serving

Cluster ECultured Milk Products

Hard CheeseIce Cream and Frozen Dairy Products

Preserved FishProcessed Cheese

Raw Seafood

Cluster DDeli-type Salads

Dry/Semi-dry Fermented SausagesFrankfurters, reheated

Fresh Soft CheeseSemi-Soft Cheese

Soft Ripened CheeseVegetables

Cluster CCooked RTE Crustaceans

FruitsPâté and Meat SpreadsUnpasteurized Fluid Milk

Smoked Seafood

Cluster BHigh Fat and Other Dairy Products

Frankfurters, not reheatedPasteurized Fluid MilkSoft Unripened Cheese

Cluster ADeli Meats

Risk per Annum

Cluster Analysis

The Model as a ToolSensitivity Analyses—

’What-If’ Scenarios

Estimate the impact of intervention strategiesby changing 1 or more input parameters andmeasuring change in the model output

Test effects of changes in process orregulation (prediction of impact onpublic health)Show how different factorsinterrelate (hypothetical)

Contamination at Retail

With baseline storage times and temperaturesGrowth supporting food

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 1

2

3

4

5

6

Log Reduction Achieved by Intervention

Pre

dic

ted

An

nu

al M

ort

alit

y

Deli Meat - Elderly

Inhibiting Growth inFrankfurters-Not reheated

0.430.5Cases per annum(median, total

population)

8.2 x 10 - 106.5 x 10 - 8Cases per serving(median, total

population)

Growth inhibitedGrowth permitted(baseline RA)

‘What-if’ Scenario for Mortality as aFunction of Home Storage Time

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Storage time (d)

Fre

qu

ency

Baseline

Truncated 15 days

Deli Meat - Elderly

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Maximum Storage Time (Days)

An

nu

al M

ort

alit

y

Mortality as a Function of MaximumStorage Temperature

0 5 10 15 20

Temperature (C)

Fre

qu

ency

Deli Meat - Elderly

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Maximum Refrigerator Temperature (°C)

Pre

dic

ted

An

nu

alM

ort

a lit

y 7 C/45 F

Conclusions and Interpretations

Major factors that affect risk:Susceptibility of individualFrequency and amount of consumption

Frequency and level of contaminationAbility of food to support growthOpportunity for growth

Refrigerated storage temperatureRefrigerated storage time

Foods that lead to cases of listeriosis arealmost always growth supporting foodswith some initial contamination thathave been abused

It’s not whether a food is below 100 cfu/g or not,the more important question is what is the bestpublic health policy to prevent consumption of10 4 to 10 6 (or more) cfu/g

Quantitative assessment of relative risk topublic health from foodborne Listeriamonocytognees among selected categories ofready-to-eat foods.

Sept 2003

www.foodsafety.gov