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José Ignacio TorreblancaEuropean Council on Foreign Relations
Madrid Officejitorreblanca@ecfr.eu
The fragmentation of European power MIR 2011
When the BRICs go catching up
Europe progressively fading away
Bye, bye Europe
Surprise, surprise
Already lost half of its population
It will continue losing
The trend is clear
Demand for Europe
BBC World Survey 2010 http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pipa/pdf/apr10/BBCViews_Apr10_rpt.pdf
Except for some places, EU image is not that bad.
But trust in Europe as a world power is low
In fact, much better than the US
BBC World Survey 2005 23 countries. http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/incl/printable_version.php?pnt=335
+ US influence
- EU influence
- US influence
- EU influence
+ US influence
+ EU influence
- US influence
+ EU influence
No country wants more US influence and less EU.
Each region has its natural leader
The rise of herbivorous power: The Voice of the People 2007. 57.000 people polled in 2007
Each continent has a potential regional leader who is welcomed by its neighbour. In Europe, the EU competes with Russia. Should the EU link with IBSA? (India, Brazil and South Africa?)
Population is in Asia
Source: World Mapper 2002
China and India alone are 40% of world’s population
But power is still in the West
Source: World Mapper 2002
Europe is still and economic power
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook
UE-27 Estados Unidos
China Japón Brasil Canada Rusia India México Corea del Sur
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20052010
Percentage of world outputGross domestic product in current billion dollars
(2005)
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook 2010
UE-2732%
EEUU30%
Japón11%
China5%
Rusia2%
Africa2%
Resto18%
The US, EU-27 and Japan account for 73% of world’s output with only 14% of the population. Europe is one third of world’s ouptut, with only 7% of the population
And even some of its member states
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook
º
China
Japó
n
Alem
ania
Reino
Uni
do
Fran
ciaIta
lia
Brasil
Canad
a
Rusia
Indi
a
Espa
ña
México
Corea
del
Sur
Paíse
s Baj
os
Bélgi
ca
Suec
ia
Polo
nia
Austri
a
Suda
frica
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2010
2010
EU-27 Still the largest trading
partner
US military hypertrophia
But Europe toos spends quite a lot
US49%
EU-2722%
Rest11%
China7%
Russia5%
Japan4%
India2%
2006, in USD billion dollars
Source: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/spending.htm
World 950
US 466
EU-27 207
Rest 102
China 65
Russia 50
Japan 41,7
India 19
No bang for the buck
Europe’s Afghan surge
Europe’s hard power
Quite a few diplomats
Lots of embassies, poor resultsCHR 2005 and HRC 2006-2008
Voting coincidence in the UN
First donor of aid2006, in million dollars, current
prices
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Serie1 68099 22863 11.945 10091 4251
UE-27 EEUU Japón Otros CAD Otros no CAD
Source: EU http://fs2.bbj.it/EUDA_01.aspx
Europe’s is largest donor, but only 1/6, half of US is earmarked as “EU”. What is the return of this?
Free-riding the EU brand, Source Eurostat, Europe in the world 2010, p.55
Suiza pudo ganar la Copa América
Y el panda inventarse un falso pulgar
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