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Tomorrow’sRailwayandClimateChangeAdapta7on(T1009)
Presenta7onforTransportDayBreak-outsession:TransportandAdapta7ontoClimateChange:Impacts,Policy,andFinanceSunday6thDecember2015MichaelWoods,JohnDoraRSSB
6December2015
WhatistheTomorrow’sRailwayandClimateChangeAdapta7onProgramme?
ARSSBfundedresearchstudy(refT1009)sponsoredbytheTechnicalStrategyLeadershipGroup.
T1009explorestheneedtoincreasetheresilienceoftheGBrailwayinresponsetoan7cipatedchangesinkeyclimatevariables.
Phase1:Comprehensiveknowledgereviewandknowledgegapanalysis.
Phase2:Improveknowledgeofclimatechangevulnerabili7esanddevelopsupporttoolstoincreaseresilienceoftheGBrailway.
6December2015
Keyques7onstheresearchhasaddressed(Phase1)andisaddressing(Phase2)
§ 1.Projectedclima7cchangeintheUKoverthenext50years.
§ 2.Impactsofclimatechangeandextremeweatherontherailway.
§ 3.Ac7onstakenbyGBrailindustryinresponsetothesepoten7alimpacts.
§ 4.Proposedfutureac7ons,including'quickwins'whichcanbeimplementedoverthenextfewyears.
§ 5.Requirementsforaddi7onaldecisionsupportframeworks,processes,andtools,topermitcost-effec7veac7ontobetaken.
§ Phase1hasansweredthefirstthreeobjec2ves,andaddressedthefourth,whilePhase2isnowfocussingonansweringobjec2vesfourandfiveinmoredetail.
3
ResearchPhase1OutputsandFindings
4
6December2015
WheretofindPhase1outputs
5
www.rssb.co.uk/improving-industry-performance/climate-change-adapta7on
§ Newclimatechangeadapta.onpagehasbeencreatedontheRSSBwebsite–summaryofhighlevelinforma7onandgatewaytofurtherinforma7on.
6December2015
Acompendiumofknowledge…
6
www.sparkrail.org/pages/climatechange.aspx
§ Newclimatechangeadapta.onpageonSPARK.
§ ~470individual‘records’aboutclimatechangeimpactsandweatherresiliencerelevanttoGBrailway(~700referencescollatedinPhase1).
§ Phase1finalreport,execu.vesummaryandresearchbrief.
§ CommunicatedtorailindustryviaRSSBregularnewslehers(eg‘TheKnowledge’).
6December2015
Phase1-Recommenda7ons
§ Over120recommenda7onsmadeinPhase1finalreport.
§ Dis7lledandpriori7sedinto10keyareasofrecommenda7onsbymembersoftheSteeringGroupfordissemina7ontoindustry.
§ Shorttermrecommenda7onsconsideredaspoten7al‘QuickWins’.
§ Allshort,mediumandlongtermrecommenda7onsarebeingreviewedinPhase2.
§ Phase2willalsohighlightareasofrecommenda7onsnotbeingaddressedwithinthescopeofT1009whichmayformfutureresearchprojects.
7
NBAllshort,mediumandlongtermrecommenda2onsavailableinPhase1fullreportandexecu2vesummary
6December2015
QuickWin Ac*onowner
Compileadatabaseofassets,includingbuildings,whicharevulnerabletooneormoreofthefollowing:excessrainfall;drought;fluvialfloodingand/orcoastalflooding.Thiswouldbeequivalenttothecri@calrailtemperature(CRT)registerforstressfreetemperatures(SFT).Assessvulnerabili@esofassetsincludinginterdependenciesand‘knockoneffects’(Highprecipita-on,Lowprecipita-on,Highsealevelsandstormsurges).
MostlyNetworkRailbutofrelevancetowholerailway–thereforeaguidance/goodprac@cedocumentwouldbeafirststeptowardsconsistencywherecommonalityexistsledbyRSSB.Thenaprogrammeofassessmentforindividualdutyholders.OpportunitytomanageasoneprogrammeviaRSSBasrequiredbytheindustry.MustrecognisethatalotofworkinthisareahasbeencarriedoutbyNetworkRailinrecentmonths.
Phase1recommenda7ons:quickwins,short,medium,longterm
8
NBAllshort,mediumandlongtermrecommenda2onsareavailableinPhase1fullreportandexecu2vesummary
T1009WaterfrontPresenta0on 12November2015
Phase1shorttermrecommenda0on‘QuickWins’
8
QuickWin Ac*onowner
Compileadatabaseofassets,includingbuildings,whicharevulnerabletooneormoreofthefollowing:excessrainfall;drought;fluvialfloodingand/orcoastalflooding.Thiswouldbeequivalenttothecri0calrailtemperature(CRT)registerforstressfreetemperatures(SFT).Assessvulnerabili0esofassetsincludinginterdependenciesand‘knockoneffects’(Highprecipita-on,Lowprecipita-on,Highsealevelsandstormsurges).
MostlyNetworkRailbutofrelevancetowholerailway–thereforeaguidance/goodprac0cedocumentwouldbeafirststeptowardsconsistencywherecommonalityexistsledbyRSSB.Thenaprogrammeofassessmentforindividualdutyholders.OpportunitytomanageasoneprogrammeviaRSSBasrequiredbytheindustry.MustrecognisethatalotofworkinthisareahasbeencarriedoutbyNetworkRailinrecentmonths.
NBAllshort,mediumandlongtermrecommenda-onsareavailableinPhase1fullreportandexecu-vesummary
T1009WaterfrontPresenta0on 12November2015
Phase1mediumtermrecommenda0on
§ Earthworkdebrisdetec0onsystems
9
Impactexample:Harburylandslip,January2015
Climate change related risk for GB railway system
Theme of recommendations Specific key recommendations (with relevant climate variables in brackets)
Time scale for action
System
Changing patterns of precipitation with consequences for soil moisture levels and stability.
Focus on lineside management issues which affect infrastructure and ‘weather and climate resilient’ design and management options with multiple benefits.
Determine which earthworks debris detection systems are most effective (High precipitation, Low precipitation).
Medium term
Infrastructure
Exampleofhowtomanagehazards
T1009WaterfrontPresenta0on 12November2015
Phase1longtermrecommenda0on–example3
§ Adap%vepathwaysapproach
10
NBAllshort,mediumandlongtermrecommenda5onsareavailableinPhase1fullreportandexecu5vesummary
Climate change related risk for GB railway system
Theme of recommendations Specific key recommendations (with relevant climate variables in brackets)
Time scale for action
System
Increased risk of flooding from heavy rainfall events, high sea levels and storm surges with consequences for resilience of infrastructure and assets.
Adaptive pathways and lifecycle cost analysis for reducing vulnerability of infrastructure, assets and operations.
Take an ‘adaptive pathways’ approach, such as that developed by the Thames Estuary 2100 project to the long term management of the GB railway to improve the resilience of infrastructure to flood risk and storm damage (High precipitation, High winds, High sea levels and storm surge).
Long term Infrastructure
Source:TE2100Plan,Nov2012
6December20159
§ Developexis7nginfrastructuredesignandmaintenanceapproaches,especiallyforearthworks.
§ Implementlifecyclecos7ngandadap7vepathwaysapproaches,includingconsidera7onofre-rou7ngkeyroutes.
§ Increaseandintegrategoodqualitydataaboutassets,weathereventsandopera.onstoinformpredic.vemodellingandresponse
§ Enhancetheindustry’sabilitytomodelandpredicttheimpactsofcombinedandsuccessiveweatherevents.
§ Improvecommunica.onsaboutweathereventsandclimatechange,throughouttheindustry.
§ Reviewallrelevantdesignandopera7onalstandardsandguidance(ieISO,BS,Eurocode,NetworkRail,RIS).
SummaryofPhase1recommenda7ons
Heat related non-work days for mitigating track buckle likelihood – 2040s
T1009Phase2–s7llinprogress
10
6December2015
Phase2Overview
6December2015
EconomicsofClimateChangeAdapta7on
Task1lookedateconomicappraisal.Tradi7onaltransporteconomicappraisalmethodologiesdonotadequatelyassessspendingdecisionsrelatedtoadapta7onandresilience.
DraFrecommenda.ons Aframeworkmodelforassessingclimatechangeadapta7onstrategiesandop7onswithintherailindustrybaseduponCostBenefitAnalyses. Afutureclimatechangeresilienceappraisalframeworkbasedupontheexis7ngcomprehensiveWebTAGandGreenBookframeworksfortakinginvestmentdecisions,withimprovedtreatmentandconsidera7onforexampleof:discountrate,the7meperiodofanalysis,uncertainty(unquan7fiablerisk),missinginforma7on,budgetconstraints,decision-makingresponsibility. Theeffortemployedonappraisalsshouldbepropor7onatetotheinvestmentwithintheframeworkmodel.
6December2015
LearningfromothercountriesTask2foundthatsimilarcountriesareFrance,Netherlands,Belgium,GermanyandDenmark.Franceappearsasbothamid-21stcenturyandend-21stcenturyweatheranalogue.Factsheetshavebeendraledonmanagementofeffectsofflooding,heatandwinter.
DraFrecommenda.ons Coopera7onwithanaloguecountriestodiscussmeasuresusedtomanagetheeffectsofextremeweathercouldbenefittheGBrailwaysystem.
6December2015
Metricssuppor7ngthemanagementandadapta7onoftherailnetworkTask3foundthatthefewmetricsdirectlyrelatedtohelpingrailwayoperatorstomanageweatherandclimatechange,focusonfloodingandwinterweatherrelatedissues.
DraFrecommenda.ons Developrobust‘journeyavailability’metric.
6December2015
Systemofsystemsperspec7ve• Task4providedareviewof
systems-basedriskandvulnerabilityoftheGBrailwayandiden7fiedtheassessmenttoolsinuse.
• ‘Mapped’asystemofsystemsrepresenta7onoftherailwayandsuggestedhowtherailwaycanbegroupedintoanumberofsub-systems.
• Highlightedtheimportanceoftheinterac7onsandinterdependenciesbetweenthesub-systems.
Strategic
Operational
Local/Specific
Socio-Political
System of Systems Model
Nested Levels
Economics & Finance Performance & Metrics
Emergent Shared Understanding
DraFrecommenda.ons Ensureasystemofsystemsperspec7veinsystems-basedriskandvulnerabilityassessmenttools.
6December2015
Poten7alopportuni7esfromuseofGISThistask-5-examinedtherelevanceandapplica7onofGeographicinforma7onSystems(GIS)toclimatechangeandextremeweatherdecisionmaking.Itreviewedexis7ngGISbasedtoolsforiden7fica7onandassessmentofriskandvulnerabilityforinfrastructureassets.
DraFrecommenda.ons Shorttermbenefitscanberealisedfromtheapplica7onofavailableweathersuscep7bilitymapsfordetermina7onofvulnerablepartsofthenetwork. Suchtoolscanbeu7lisedtogetherwiththesignificantdataheldbyNetworkRail,andfromfailureinves7ga7ons,ofassetvulnerabilitytofacilitatefailurepredic7on.
Railwayshouldbecharacterisedasasystemofsystemsinrela7ontovulnerabilitytoweathereffectsandgeographicalfeatures. Datamustbecompiledandcommunicatedinaconsistentwaytakingintoaccountthethree-dimensionalnatureandinterconnec7vityoftherailway.Aseriesofexemplarshort,mediumandlongtermgoalsfordecisionmakingusingGISbasedvulnerabilityassessmentshasbeencompiledforconsidera7on.
6December2015
Suppor7ngmeasuresforrailwaysystemresilienceThistask-6-hasprovidedanoverviewofrelevantpolicies,standards,proceduresandprac7seswhicharenecessaryforaddressingclimatechangeandweatherimpacts,andfordeliveryofrailwaysystemresilienceinGreatBritain.
DraFrecommenda.onsEnsureprocessforreviewofthepolicies,procedures,andstandardstakesintoaccountthesystemicnatureofclimatechangeeffects,andtheneedforstandardsthatareconsistentwithothertransportmodesandsectors.Introduceacollabora7vecross-modalandcross-sectorialapproach,workingwithrelevantGovernmentdepartmentsandagencies.InvolvetheGBrailwayinmul7-agencyworking,inthefieldsof:• Collabora7onwithintherailindustryandacrossorganisa7onalboundaries• Evidencebaseddecisionmaking• Lessonslearnt• Publiccommunica7ons.EngagetheGBrailwaywithrelevantmul7-agencyforumstoinfluencethedevelopmentofEuropeanstandardswhereclimatechangeini7a7vesarealreadyinprogress.
6December2015
Impactsandpoten7alresiliencemeasures
Temperature
Precipita7on
WeatherEvents
SeaLevelRise
ExtremeHighRailbuckling
PassengerDiscomfort
ExtremeLowIcebuild-onrollingstockFreezethawatcupngs
RapidChangesLinesideelectronic
equipmentaffec7ngpower,signalling,telecomms
• Maintaintrackstomoreresistantspecifica7ons• Cluher-freedesignforundersideofvehicles• De-icingmeasuresusedpriortoentryintoservice• Rockremovalac7vityonacyclicbasis&Nepngofrockcupngs
ExtremeHighFlooding
ScourofBridgePiersLandslips
ExtremeWindsCatenaryfailure
TreeFallCoastalFlooding
eg:DawlishBUTDON”TFORGETWALESetc!!
ExtremeDroughtDessica7onofclay
forma7ons
IncreasedHumidityLeafcontamina7onLossofbrakingmuLossoftrackcircuits
LightningInterferencewith
electronicsEMC
• Improvedrainage• Improvescourprotec7on• Vegeta7onmanagement• Protectvulnerableslopes• Rebuildembankments• Ins7tutewarningsystems
• Vegeta7onmanagement• AdaptRollingStock• Catenarymaintenance• Robustcontrolsystems• Redundantpowersystems
• Factorinresiliencemeasuresforrou7nerenewalprogramme• Designfuturedefencesworkswithsealevelriseinmind
6December2015
Publishedreports
19
Phase1summaryreport
Phase1finalreport
Phase1appendicesA-J
Phase2beingfinalised
Commentsandques7onswelcome–orcontactusat
michael.woods@rssb.co.ukorjohndora@johndoraconsul7ng.eu
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