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TomCarlsonTomCarlsonSierraResearch,Inc.SierraResearch,Inc.
TomCarlsonTomCarlsonSierraResearch,Inc.SierraResearch,Inc.
August21,2013August21,2013CEC W k hCEC W k hAugust21,2013August21,2013CEC W k hCEC W k hCECWorkshopCECWorkshopCECWorkshopCECWorkshop
DOCKETEDCalifornia Energy Commission
AUG 27 2013
TN 71904
13-IEP-1L
BackgroundBackgroundVehicleattributesareusedasinputdataforCECconsumer choice modeling to estimate theconsumerchoicemodelingtoestimatethecharacteristicsoftheCaliforniavehiclefleet.
Attributesincludevehicleprice,fueleconomy,numberp yofmodels,aswellasperformanceandutilitymetrics.
Attributesareforecastfor:h l l l h d d h lVehicleclasses comprising18lightdutysizeandvehicle
typecategoriesdefinedbyCEC;and
Technology/fuelgroups encompassingconventionalandemergingalternativefuels(gas,diesel,NG,ethanol,electricity)andaspectrumofvehicletechnologies(conventional,hybrids,pluginhybrids,electricandfuel( , y , p g y ,cell).
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Draft2013IEPRScope2013attributeforecasts:
Lightdutyvehiclefleetonly
Basedupon:
2013NationalAcademyofSciencesTransitionstoAlternativeVehicles&Fuelsstudy
Boschestimatesofdieselvehiclepenetration(Junep (2013CECworkshop)
CARB2012ZEVAmendments
Updated historical data (MY2010 2011 data)Updatedhistoricaldata(MY20102011data)
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AnalysisFramework VehicleClassesCEC
S bfl t Cl Cl D i ti E l M d lSubfleet Class ClassDescription ExampleModels01A Subcompact(16000lbs) ToyotaEcho,HyundaiAccent,VWGolf02A Compact(16000lbs) HondaCivic,ChevyCavalier,FordFocus03A Midsize(16000lbs) HondaAccord,FordTaurus,ToyotaCamry04A Large(16000lbs) BuickLeSabre,FordCrownVictoria05A Sport (1 6000 lbs) Ford M stang Che Camaro To ota CelicaC
arClasses
05A Sport(16000lbs) FordMustang,ChevyCamaro,ToyotaCelica06A CrossUtilitySmall(16000lbs)* ChryslerPTCruiser,ToyotaMatrix07A CrossUtilitySmall(16000lbs)* ToyotaRAV4,HondaCRV,FordEscape08A CrossUtilityMidsize(16000lbs) ToyotaHighlander,HondaPilot,LexusRX30009A SportsUtilityCompact(16000lbs) ChevyBlazer,NissanXterra,IsuzuAmigo10A Sports Utility Midsize (1 6000 lbs) GMC Envoy Dodge Durango Isuzu Trooper
Csses
10A SportsUtilityMidsize(16000lbs) GMCEnvoy,DodgeDurango,IsuzuTrooper11A SportsUtilityLarge(60018500lbs) ChevyTahoe,ToyotaSequoia,FordExpedition11B SportsUtilityHeavy(850110000lbs) ChevyR2500Suburban,FordExcursion12A VanCompact(16000lbs) FordWindstar,DodgeCaravan,HondaOdyssey13A VanLarge(60018500lbs) FordEconoline,ChevyExpress,DodgeRamVan13B Van Heavy (850110000 lbs) Chevy Express Van G30 Ford Comm Strip E350ht
DutyTruckClas
13B VanHeavy(850110000lbs) ChevyExpressVanG30,FordCommStripE35014A PickupCompact(16000lbs) ChevyS10,FordRanger,NissanFrontier15A PickupStandard(60018500lbs) FordF150,GMCSierra,ToyotaTundra15B PickupHeavy(850110000lbs) GMCSierraC3500,DodgeD300/350,FordF350
* Cross Utility Small is bifurcated into "Car" and "Truck" due to CAFE differences.
Ligh
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CrossUtility Smallisbifurcatedinto Car and Truck duetoCAFEdifferences.
AnalysisFramework Tech/FuelGroups
T h/F l GNo. Abbrev Fuel/TechGroupDescription
1 GAS Gasoline2 GHYB GasolineElectricHybrids3 DSL Diesel4 BDSL Di l (Bi di l)
Tech/FuelGroup
4 BDSL Diesel(Biodiesel)5 DHYB DieselElectricHybrid6 LPG Propane7 FFVG FlexibleFuelVehicles(FFV),GasFueled8 FFVE FlexibleFuelVehicles(FFV),E85Fueled9 PHEV Plug in Electric Gasoline Hybrids (PHEV)9 PHEV PluginElectricGasolineHybrids(PHEV)10 CNG CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)11 LNG LiquefiedNaturalGas(LNG)12 DUAL DualFuelGasolineandCNG13 EV FullElectric(EV)14 FCV Hydrogen Vehicles (FCV)14 FCV HydrogenVehicles(FCV)
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AnalysisFramework AttributesModeledAttrShrt AttributeDescription
b f d d l k d d l (b d l l d f l/ h )#Configs Numberofindividualmakesandmodels(bymodelyear,classandfuel/techgroup)MSRP Manufacturersuggestedretailprice(MSRP)ofanewcarexpressedin2011U.S.dollarsOnRdFE Fueleconomy(onroadmilespergallonequivalent,mpge)Acl060 Acceleration(secondsto60milesperhour)TowCap Towingcapacity(lb),newfor2013IEPRM i tC t A l i t t i 2011 d ll i l f f il h / l i tMaintCst Annualnewcarmaintenancecostin2011dollars,incl.feesforoilchanges/regularmaint.Gradblty GradabilityDriveRng DrivingRange(miles)VehLife Averageexpectedvehiclelifetime(yrs),newfor2013IEPRSeatCap PassengerSeatCapacity(numberofpassengers)StorVol Trunk or Storage Space (in cubic feet) new for 2013 IEPRStorVol TrunkorStorageSpace(incubicfeet),newfor2013IEPRFuelTime TimeneededtocompletefullfuelingorchargingBattCost Batterycost(forHEV/PHEV/EV),newfor2013IEPRChrgCost ChargingEquipmentCost,externalequipment(forEV/CNG),newfor2013IEPRCurbWt Curbweightofvehicle(lb)HP Engine rated power (hp)
Attributesestimatedbymodelyear,vehicleclassand/
HP Engineratedpower(hp)Lit Enginedisplacement(liters)
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fuel/techgroup salesweightedcomposites
HistoricalBaseline(Step1)2011IEPRbasedonmodelyear(MY)1992throughy ( ) g2009historicaldata.
For2013IEPR,Sierradevelopedindependent MY19922011 hi t i l d t b ith dditi l tt ib t2011historicaldatabasewithadditionalattributesdescribedearlier:
Datacompiledatvehiclemodel&powertrainlevelp p
Historicalaveragesbymodelyear,vehicleclassandfuel/techgroupbasedonU.S.fleet newvehiclesales
Plan to update with California specific new vehiclePlantoupdatewithCaliforniaspecific newvehicleregistrationspurchasedfromR.L.Polk
Price(MSRP)andfueleconomydatacollectedforMYs20122013totestearlyyearforecasts.
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AttributeForecasts OverviewAttributeforecaststhroughMY2035werepreparedforg p pasetoffuelprice/economic/regulatorypolicyscenariosspecifiedbyCEC.
S i d li ith d t d f d lScenariosassumedcompliancewithadopted federal(CAFE,GHG,&RFS),andCalifornia(GHG,ZEV,&LCFS)regulations.
Primarysourceforattributeforecastswas2013NASTransitionstoAlt.Vehicles&Fuelsstudy
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AttributeForecastsNASBasedAssumptions&MethodsKey2013NASanalysisscenarios:y y
Reference Adoptedfederalregs.through2025(CAFE,RFS2) usedforDraft2013IEPR
Mid P li t b d 2025 ki 50%Midrange Policysupportbeyond2025seeking50%LDVGHGreductionsby2030from2005levels
Optimistic AggressivepolicysupportandstretchgoalsrequiringgreaterR&Dandvehicledesignsuccess
NAStechnologypenetrations:Powertrain improvements Vehicle simulation modelingPowertrainimprovements VehiclesimulationmodelingperformedforEPA2025GHGregulations
Loadreductions Improvementsfromlightweighting,llaero.drag&rollingresistancereductionsandaccessory
efficiencygains9
AttributeForecastsNASBasedAssumptions&Methods(cont.)
NASbasedtechnologycosts:gyFullylearned,highvolumecostsandphaseinschedules
Separateestimatesdevelopedfor:
Internalcombustionengines(ICEs)
Hybrids(HEVs) addedasincrementtoICEcosts(subtractingcreditsforsmallerengines)( g g )
PlugInHybrids(PHEVs) 310timeshigherbattery/motorsizes
Battery Electric Vehicles (EVs) 30 times higherBatteryElectricVehicles(EVs) 30timeshigherbattery/motorsizesthanHEVs
FuelCellVehicles(FCVs)andCompressedNaturalGasVehicles(CNGVs) cheaperthanEVs,infrastructureconstrained
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AttributeForecastsNASBasedAssumptions&Methods(cont.)
KeyNASassumptions:y pNASdidnotconsiderfurtherefficiencyimprovementstodieselengines assumedmanufacturerswouldfocusICEimprovements on gasoline enginesimprovementsongasolineengines
Lithiumionislongtermtechnologyforpluginhybridandbatteryelectricvehicles
Weightreductionsrangingfrom15%to20%(relativeto2010)by2030
Markupfactorof1.25(totranslateproductioncoststop ( pretailequivalentincrements)
Manufacturerswilltradehistoricalincreasesinperformance and utility for downsizing to comply withperformanceandutilityfordownsizingtocomplywithstringentGHG/FEstandards
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AttributeForecastsNASBasedAssumptions&Methods(cont.)
LAVETransspreadsheetmodeldevelopedunderNASp pstudyusedtogenerateFEandvehiclepriceforecasts
UsedNASbasedrelativeFEimprovementsandvehiclei (MSRP) f ICE HEV PHEV FCV d CNGprices(MSRP)forgasICE,HEV,PHEV,FCVsandCNG
technologies.
Diesels NASbasedloadreductiongains(andcosts)forg ( )gasICEsusedtoforecastFEimprovementsandMSRP.
FuturebatterycostsscaledfromNASmidrangei ( 80% d i i 2035 f HEV 70estimates:(over80%reductionsin2035forHEVs,70
75%forPHEVs,65%forEVsrelativeto2010)
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AttributeForecastsNASBasedAssumptions&Methods(cont.)
Modelavailability forecasts(numberofmodels):y ( )GasICEs&HEVs ScaledfromLAVETranssalesprojections
Di l ICE th h MY2018 b d B hDieselICEs grownthroughMY2018basedonBoschprojectionsfromJune2013workshop
CNG&DualFuel Heldconstantafter2013
PHEVs,EVs,FCVs:
Grownfrom2011baselinetoreflectupdatedZEVlightduty vehicle production targets by 2025 (5 9%light dutyvehicleproductiontargetsby2025(5.9%PHEVs,4.6%EVs,3.3%FCVs)
CARBbasedsplitsbyvehicletype(carvs.passenger)car)
RestrictednumberofvehicleclassesforEVs13
AttributeForecasts FEResults(NAS Reference Case)
ForecastedPassengerCarCAFEFuelEconomy(mpge)byFuel/TechGroup(NASReferenceCase)
140
160
180
200
(mpge) ICE/CNG HEV
PHEV BEVFCV
60
80
100
120
AFEFue
lEcono
my( FCV
0
20
40
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
CA
ModelYear
ICE/CNGpassengercarFEincreases61%(from2011to2030)
HEVpassengercarFEincreases49%
PHEVpassengercarFEincreases61%
BEVpassengercarFEincreases21%
FCVpassengercarFEincreases24%14
AttributeForecasts FEResults(cont.)ForecastedLightTruckCAFEFuelEconomy(mpge)byFuel/TechGroup
(NAS Reference Case)(NASReferenceCase)
100
120
140
(mpge) ICE/CNG HEV
PHEV BEVFCV
40
60
80
AFEFue
lEcono
my( FCV
0
20
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
CA
ModelYear
ICE/CNGlighttruckFEincreases55%(from2011to2030)
HEVlighttruckFEincreases41%
PHEVlighttruckFEincreases60%
BEVlighttruckFEincreases16%
FCVlighttruckFEincreases20%15
AttributeForecasts RetailPriceResults(NAS Reference Case)
ForecastedPassengerCarMSRPbyFuel/TechGroup(NASReferenceCase)
50,000
55,000
60,000
)ICE HEV
PHEV BEV
FCV CNG
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
MSRP(201
1$)
20,000
25,000
30,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035ModelYear
ICEpassengercarMSRPincreases7%(from2011to2030)
HEVpassengercarMSRPdecreases 4%
PHEVpassengercarMSRPdecreases 8%
BEVpassengercarMSRPdecreases 24%
FCVpassengercarMSRPdecreases 13%16
AttributeForecasts RetailPriceResults(NASReferenceCase)
ForecastedLightDutyTruckMSRPbyFuel/TechGroup( )
50,000
55,000
60,000
$)ICE HEV
PHEV BEV
FCV CNG
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
MSRP(201
1$
20,000
25,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035ModelYear
ICElighttruckMSRPincreases6%(from2011to2030)
HEVlighttruckMSRPdecreases 4%
PHEVlighttruckMSRPdecreases 10%
BEVlighttruckMSRPdecreases 25%
FCVlighttruckMSRPdecreases 13%17
QuestionsandComments
TomCarlson
SierraResearch,Inc.
916 444 66669164446666
tcarlson@sierraresearch.com
THANKYOU!
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