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TIGGE at ECMWF. David Richardson, Head, Meteorological Operations Section david.richardson@ecmwf.int. ECMWF TIGGE archive. The TIGGE database now contains five years of global EPS data Holds more than 520 terabytes (2.6 billion fields). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Slide 1
GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
TIGGE at ECMWF
David Richardson,Head, Meteorological Operations Section
david.richardson@ecmwf.int
Slide 1
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GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
ECMWF TIGGE archive The TIGGE database now contains five years of global EPS
data Holds more than 520 terabytes (2.6 billion fields). There are around 1300 registered users of the TIGGE data
portal
Slide 2
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GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
ECMWF TIGGE archive
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Number of active users
Series1
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GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
ECMWF TIGGE archive
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0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Data volumes (GBytes)
Retrieved
Delivered
Slide 5
GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
ECMWF TIGGE archive - changes BoM, KMA stopped providing EPS to TIGGE archive
KMA now testing sending higher resolution EPS New data:
JMA 00 UTC control step 0 (as analysis) CMA analysis (06, 18)??
problem with database for 1 week – needed to ask centres to resend. All gaps filled. Thanks to all who did that
Access – new batch access to TIGGE archive (python, perl) next generation data portal under development Planned GEOWOW developments:
timeseries for small number of fields TIGGE-LAM, netcdf
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GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
GEOWOW (GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water) is an EU-funded FP7 project that will begin in September 2011.
GEOWOW will propose and validate a multi-disciplinary, distributed architectural model federating Earth Observation and other Earth Science data holdings and put this model forward as the European contribution to the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Common Infrastructure.
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GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
GEOWOW The GEO Capacity Building Strategy focuses on three
elements: human, institutional and infrastructure. The Weather component of the GEOWOW project will address
all three by improving the access to THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data and developing and demonstrating products using this data in collaboration with users in developing countries, including providing education and training.
GEOWOW will significantly enhance the accessibility of the TIGGE archive at ECMWF for the wider user community, in particular the ability to efficiently access long time series of forecast data at user-specified locations.
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GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
GEOWOW 3 years: September 2011 – August 2014 Co-ordinated by ESA Total funding from EU: 7 M euros For weather: 1.1 M euros
ECMWF Met Office Météo-France Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
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The operational forecast system High resolution deterministic forecast: twice per day
16 km 91-level, to 10 days ahead Ensemble forecast (EPS): twice daily
51 members, 32/65 km 62-level, to 15 days aheadextended to 32 days once a week (Monthly forecast)
Ocean waves: twice daily Global: 10 days ahead at 28 km Limited Area Wave (LAW): 5 days ahead at 10 km Ensemble: 15 days ahead at 55 km
Seasonal forecast: once a month41-members, 125 km 62 levels, to 7 months ahead a sub-set ensemble of 11 members is run for 13 months every quarter
GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 Slide 9
Slide 10
The operational ECMWF EPSThe operational version of the EPS includes 51 forecasts with resolution:• TL639L62 (~32km, 62 levels) from day 0 to 10,
• TL319L62 (~64km, 62 levels) from day 10 to 15 (32 at 00UTC on Thursdays).
Initial uncertainties are simulated by adding to the unperturbed analyses a combination of T42L62 singular vectors, computed to optimize total energy growth over a 48h time interval (OTI), and perturbations generated using the new ECMWF Ensemble Data Assimilation (EDA) system.Model uncertainties are simulated by adding stochastic perturbations to the tendencies due to parameterized physical processes (SPPT scheme) and using a stochastic backscatter (SPBS) scheme.The EPS is run twice a day, at 00 and 12 UTC; the 00 UTC run is fully coupled to the HOPE ocean model after day 10.
NH
SH
TR
Definition of the perturbed ICs
1 2 50 51…..
Products
Slide 11
Summary of EPS changes Initial perturbations:
2009 : Combination of Singular Vectors (SVs) optimised in two 48-hour windows: [t0, t0+48h] and [t0-48h, t0]
2011 : Combination of EDA perturbations (diff. between 10 EDA analyses) and SVs optimised in the [t0, t0+48h] window with reduced (50%) amplitude
Simulation of model uncertainty: 2009 : SPPT with 1 spatial scale, white-noise time variab. with 6-hour time scale 2011 : SPPT with 3 spatial and time scales, red-noise variability in time (Markov
chain), plus stochastic backscatter (SPBS)
Slide 12
Since 22 June 2010, differences between 6h perturbed forecasts from the ECMWF Ensemble Data Assimilation system have been combined with singular vectors to generate the EPS initial perturbations
The ten TL399L91 EDA perturbed analyses are generated by randomly perturbing the observations and the SST, and by running the forecast model with the SPPT stochastic scheme. The random perturbations are defined by sampling a normal distribution with the observation error standard deviation
Simulation of initial uncertainty using EDA
Since 18 May 2011, the EDA has been used to specify the background errors “of the day” in the high-resolution 4D-Var
U850 background error standard deviationRandomization method (ope, left) – EDA (cy36r4, right)
Slide 13
500 km6 h
1000 km3 d
2000 km30 d
Simulation of model uncertainty: multi-scale SPPT
Since Oct 1998, the EPS has included a stochastic scheme designed to simulate random model errors due to parameterized physical processes (SPPT). Since Nov 2010, the scheme includes a multi-scale pattern generator to account for parameterization errors on multiple spatial and temporal scales.
(from M Leutbecher)
Slide 14
Since Nov 2010, a stochastic backscatter scheme (SPBS) is also used in the EPS:
Rationale: a fraction of the dissipated energy is backscattered upscale and acts as streamfunction forcing for the resolved-scale flow (Shutts & Palmer 2004, Shutts 2005, Berner et al 2009)
Streamfunction forcing is given by:
Recent improvements/updates include: Revised convective dissipation calculation Revised dissipation rate smoothing Changed pressure dependency of vertical correlations Option to force only part of the spectrum [reduces computational cost
and avoids problems detected with small scale forcing]
Streamfunction forcing
Backscatter ratio
Total dissipation
rate
Pattern generat
or
Simulation of model uncertainty: SPBS
Slide 15
GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
Recent operational changes 2010-2011 24 June 2010 (cycle 36r2) includes
Changes to EPS initial-time perturbations 9 November 2010 (cycle 36r4) includes
New cloud scheme New surface analysis schemes are introduced for snow and soil
moisture EPS: revised model uncertainty; retuned initial perturbation
amplitudes 18 May 2011 (cycle 37r2) includes
Data assimilation changes Technical change: model-level data in GRIB-2 format
Slide 15
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GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
EPS probability skill, RPSS, T850, N hem
Monthly score and 12-month running mean (bold) of Ranked Probability Skill Score for EPS forecasts of T850 at day 3 (blue), 5 (red) and 7 (black) for N hem
Slide 16
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
N Hem Extratrop (lat 20.0 to 90.0, lon -180.0 to 180.0) | 00UTC,12UTC,beginning\HG 0.8\(12mMA = 12 months moving average)Ranked probability skill scoretemperature 850hPaECMWF EPS verification
T+72T+120T+168T+72 12hMA
T+120 12hMAT+168 12hMA
Slide 17
GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
EPS probability skill, RPSS, T850, Europe
Monthly score and 12-month running mean (bold) of Ranked Probability Skill Score for EPS forecasts of T850 at day 3 (blue), 5 (red) and 7 (black) for Europe
Slide 17
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Europe (lat 35.0 to 75.0, lon -12.5 to 42.5) | 00UTC,12UTC,beginning\HG 0.8\(12mMA = 12 months moving average)Ranked probability skill scoretemperature 850hPaECMWF EPS verification
T+72T+120T+168T+72 12hMA
T+120 12hMAT+168 12hMA
Slide 18
GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
EPS skill T850 NH
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-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15Forecast Day
oper_an ti enfo prod | Mean method: fair | Population: 180,180,180,180,180,180,180,180,180,180,179,179,179,179,179
Date: 20101201 00UTC to 20110228 12UTCN Hem Extratrop (lat 20.0 to 90.0, lon -180.0 to 180.0)
Continuous ranked probability skill score850hPa temperature
ECMWFNCEPUKMOCMC
Slide 19
GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
EPS spread/skill 850 wind tropics
Slide 19
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
m/s
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15Forecast Day
Mean method: standard
oper_an od enfo 0001Date: 20081201 00UTC to 20110228 12UTCTropics (lat -20.0 to 20.0, lon -180.0 to 180.0)
850hPa wind speedEnsemble Mean
rmse djf2011spread djf2011rmse djf2010spread djf2010
rmse djf2009spread djf2009
Slide 20
GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
EPS skill 850 wind tropics
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-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15Forecast Day
oper_an od enfo 0001 | Mean method: standard
Date: 20061201 00UTC to 20110228 12UTCTropics (lat -20.0 to 20.0, lon -180.0 to 180.0)
Continuous ranked probability skill score850hPa wind speed
2011 00,12utc
2010 00,12utc
2009 00,12utc
2008 00,12utc
2007 00,12utc
Slide 21
EPS probabilistic precipitation skill
GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 Slide 21
CRPSS for 24-h Precipitation, ExTrop, ECMWF, 20010115-20110415
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12Year
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Lead
tim
e (d
ays)
0.05
0.10
0.15
24-h Precip, 20101101 to 20110430, ExTrop
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Lead time (days)
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
CR
PSS
ECMWF ( 0.178)JMA ( 0.066)UKMO ( 0.037)NCEP (-0.008)
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GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
Product Development New parameters from deterministic forecast
Height of lowest cloud base Height of 0°C level
New parameters from EPS L, M, H cloud cover
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GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
New EPS clustering New clustering operational since 16 November Graphical products on the ECMWF website at: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/newclusters/newclusters/ Cluster fields available via dissemination
The disseminated products are based on the day 5-7 time range (time steps 120, 132, 144, 156 and 168)
Old clusters will be switched off later this year
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GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
New EPS clustering
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Reference step t+120-168 Domain 75/340/30/40 Cont. in cluster=2 Det. in cluster=2Tuesday 7 June 2011 00UTC ECMWF EPS Cluster scenario - 500 hPa Geopotential
544
560
560
560
576
576
Cluster: 1(of 3), population: 22, repres. member: 21forecast t+120 VT:Sunday 12 June 2011 00UTC
544
560
560
560
576
576
Cluster: 1(of 3), population: 22, repres. member: 21forecast t+144 VT:Monday 13 June 2011 00UTC
544
544
560
560
560
576
576
Cluster: 1(of 3), population: 22, repres. member: 21forecast t+168 VT:Tuesday 14 June 2011 00UTC
544
544
560
560
560
576
576
Cluster: 2(of 3), population: 17, repres. member: 0forecast t+120 VT:Sunday 12 June 2011 00UTC
544
544
560
560
560
576
576
Cluster: 2(of 3), population: 17, repres. member: 0forecast t+144 VT:Monday 13 June 2011 00UTC
544
544544
544
560
560
560
560
576
576
592
Cluster: 2(of 3), population: 17, repres. member: 0forecast t+168 VT:Tuesday 14 June 2011 00UTC
544
560
560
560
576
576
Cluster: 3(of 3), population: 12, repres. member: 4forecast t+120 VT:Sunday 12 June 2011 00UTC
544
544
560
560
560
560
576
576
Cluster: 3(of 3), population: 12, repres. member: 4forecast t+144 VT:Monday 13 June 2011 00UTC
544
560
560 576
576
Cluster: 3(of 3), population: 12, repres. member: 4forecast t+168 VT:Tuesday 14 June 2011 00UTC
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Regime transitions
EPS forecast of large-scale weather regimes. Daily time series for November 2010 to April 2011 of the number of EPS clusters and observed climatological regimes (coloured circles). The climatological regime associated with each cluster is indicated by the colour of the bar: blue - positive NAO pattern, green - negative NAO, red – blocking, violet - Atlantic ridge. The EPS clusters are computed over forecast days 5-7.
Slide 25GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
2DEC2010
4 6 8 1012141618202224262830 1JAN2011
3 5 7 9 1113151719212325 272931 2FEB
4 6 8 10121416182022242628 2MAR
4 6 8 1012141618202224262830 1APR
3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729 1MAY
3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729310
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
n. o
f clu
ster
s
2DEC2010
4 6 8 1012141618202224262830 1JAN2011
3 5 7 9 1113151719212325 272931 2FEB
4 6 8 10121416182022242628 2MAR
4 6 8 1012141618202224262830 1APR
3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729 1MAY
3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729310
40
80
120
160
met
res
reference step: t+ 168new clusters 500hPa geopotential EXPVER=0001
Slide 26
Climatological regimes
Slide 26GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
Slide 27
GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
Tropical cyclones Tracking of tropical cyclones developing during forecast
(medium-range and monthly products on web) Operational tracks – deterministic up to 1 hour earlier Under test: replacement of operational tracker (will include
tracks beyond 5 days)
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GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
Tropical cyclones
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0000
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E
tracks: black=OPER, green=CTRL, blue=EPS numbers: observed positions at t+..hProbability that 04W will pass within 120km radius during the next 120 hours
20110520 12 UTC
5
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
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90
100
Typhoon Songda 19-29 May 2011
Operational tracker
Slide 29
GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
Tropical cyclones
Slide 29
0°N
10°N
20°N
30°N
40°N
50°N
0°N
10°N
20°N
30°N
40°N
50°N
100°E 120°E 140°E 160°E
100°E 120°E 140°E 160°E
0°N
10°N
20°N
30°N
40°N
50°N
0°N
10°N
20°N
30°N
40°N
50°N
100°E 120°E 140°E 160°E
100°E 120°E 140°E 160°E
tracks: solid=OPER; dot=CTRLProbability that 04W will pass within 120 km radius during the next 240 hoursDate 20110520 12 UTC @ ECMWF
+240 h : hr ct 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 +216 h : hr ct 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 +192 h : hr ct 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 +168 h : hr ct 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 +144 h : hr ct 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 +120 h : hr ct 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 +096 h : hr ct 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 +072 h : hr ct 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 +048 h : hr ct 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 +024 h : hr ct 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
Intensity category in colours: TD[up to 16] TS[17-32] HR1 [33-42] HR2 [43-48] HR3 [ >48 m/s] List of ensemble members numbers forecast Tropical Cyclone
5-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 > 90 %
920930940950960970980990
100010101020
Fri 20 Sat 21 Sun 22 Mon 23 Tue 24 Wed 25 Thu 26 Fri 27 Sat 28 Sun 29 Mon 30May2011
Mean Sea Level Pressure in Tropical Cyclone Centre (hPa)
0
10
20
30
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50
Fri 20 Sat 21 Sun 22 Mon 23 Tue 24 Wed 25 Thu 26 Fri 27 Sat 28 Sun 29 Mon 30May2011
10m Wind Speed (m/s)
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
Fri 20 Sat 21 Sun 22 Mon 23 Tue 24 Wed 25 Thu 26 Fri 27 Sat 28 Sun 29 Mon 30May2011
TD[up to 16] TS [17-32] HR1[33-42] HR2 [43-48] HR3 [> 48 m/s]Probability (%) of Tropical Cyclone Intensity falling in each categoryTD[up to 16] TS [17-32] HR1[33-42] HR2 [43-48] HR3 [> 48 m/s]Probability (%) of Tropical Cyclone Intensity falling in each category
Slide 30
Track plumes for the TC are plotted for the EPS members, T1279 and Control. Each colour represents 24h forecast interval (EPS)
0-24h 24-48h 48-72h 72-96h 96-120h 120-144h 144-168h
Slide 30GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
Slide 31
GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
Product Development Extra-tropical cyclone products (web products) Surface weather parameters (new web plots) Extension of EFI
Slide 31
Slide 32
ecCharts – new interactive web plots
GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011 Slide 32
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