Thinking About International Migration

Thinking About International Migration

Douglas S. Massey

Professor of Sociology and Public Affairs

Princeton University

Origins of 9.1 Million Legal US Immigrants Arriving 1991-2000

15

30.9

24.8

10.8

11.8

6.7

EuropeAsiaMexicoCaribbeanOther LARest

Origins of 7 Million Undocumented Migrants 2000

68.7

6.7

2.4

5.5

4.6

0.7

11.4

MexicoCentral AmericaCaribbeanS. AmericaAsiaCanadaUknown

Origins of All U.S. Immigrants:Documented and Undocumented

45.5

13.8

6

20.1

14.6

Mexico

Latin America

Caribbean

Asia

Other

Top Five Misunderstandings About International Migration

1. Migration is Caused by Rapid Population Growth

2. Migration is Caused by Poverty and a Lack of Development

3. Migrants Move Mainly in Response to Wage Differentials

4. Most Migrants Intend to Settle Permanently

5. Increasing the Costs of Entry Will Reduce Migration

Migrationand

Natural Increase

Zlotnik, Hania. 2004. “Population Growth and International Migration.” Pp. 13-34 in Douglas S. Massey and J. Edward Taylor, eds., International Migration: Prospects and

Policies. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

y = -0.1311x + 0.2382

R2 = 0.0317

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00

Rate of natural increase

Net

mig

ratio

n ra

te

All countries Linear (All countries)

Migrationand

Economic Development

Massey, Douglas S. 1988. International Migration and Economic Development in

Comparative Perspective.” Population and Development Review 14:383-414.

Rate of Immigration to US by Per Capita Income

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

Per Capita Income (PPP)

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

Rate of Immigration by Per Capita IncomeLatin America and the Caribbean

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000

Per Capita Income

Rat

e o

f Im

mig

rati

on

Mexico is Not a Poor Country!

Mexico USA Russia CongoPer Capita Income $8,900 $36,300 $9,700 $600Industry % Agriculture 5% 2% 6% 55% % Manufacturing 26% 18% 35% 11% % Services 69% 80% 59% 34%Demography Urbanization 74% 75% 73% 29% Life Expectancy 72.3 77.1 67.7 48.9 Fertility 2.5 2.1 1.3 6.7

• Within Mexico: US Migration Associated With More Development

Not Less Development in Communities

Effect of Community Development on Rate of Migration to US

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Percentage of Women Employed in Manufacturing

Pro

bab

ilit

y o

f U

S M

igra

tio

n

Relative Effect of Binational Wage Gap on Rate of Migration to the

United States

Massey, Douglas S., and Kristen E. Espinosa. 1997. “What’s Driving Mexican Migration to the United States?” American Journal of Sociology 203:939-999.

Effect of Wages versus Interest Rates on Probability of US Migration

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

Expected Wage Ratio Mexican Real Interest Rate

Ch

ang

e in

Pro

bab

ilit

y

Permanence of Mexican Immigration

• Historically Migration Has Been Circular– 1965-1985

• 85% of Undocumented Entries Were Offset By Departures

– Over Same Period• Annual Probability of Return Was 33%• Around 70% Back Home within 5 Years

– Massey, Douglas S., and Audrey Singer. 1995. “New Estimates of Undocumented Migration and the Probability of Apprehension.” Demography 32:203-13.

Effect of Costs of Entry on Undocumented Migration

• Massey, Douglas S., Jorge Durand, and Nolan J. Malone. 2002. Beyond Smoke and Mirrors: Mexican Immigration in an Age of Economic Integration. New York: Russell Sage.

Size and budget of Border Patrol and INS 1978-98 (1986=1.0)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998Year

Ratio

to 1

986

Valu

e

INS Budget Border Patrol Budget Border Patrol Officers

Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period

IRCA Major Immigration Acts

Death rate from suffocation, drowning, heat exhaustion, exposure, and unknown causes along border 1986-98

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Year

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

En

trie

s

Operation Blockade Launched In El Paso

Cost (1983 dollars) of hiring a coyote (border smuggler) 1980-98

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

Year

Do

llar

s

Tijuana Non-Tijuana

Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period

Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso

Probability of taking first undocumented trip to the U.S. 1980-98

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

Year

Pro

bab

ility

Males Females

Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period

Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso

Probability of Apprehension by Year

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Year

Pro

bab

ility

per

Att

emp

t

IRCA PassesOperation Blockade Launched

Consequences of Misunderstanding

• Sharp Decline in Return Migration

• Nationalization of Immigration

• Decline in Wages for Legal Migrants

• Waste of Money

• Waste of Lives

Probability of returning from U.S. on first trip1980-98.

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

Year

Pro

bab

ility

Pre-IRCA Period

Post-IRCA Period

Opertation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso

Percentage of Undocumented Migrants Going to Non-traditional Destination on Last U.S. trip 1980-98

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

Year

Per

cen

tag

e

Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period

Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso

Wages (1983 U.S. dollars) earned on last U.S. trip 1980-98

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

Year

Do

llars

per

Ho

ur

Documented Undocumented

Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period

Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso

Relative cost of Border Patrol enforcement 1980-98

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

Year

Do

llars

Cost ($10,000) per Point Cost ($) per Entry

Pre-IRCA Period Post-IRCA Period

Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso

Death rate from suffocation, drowning, heat exhaustion, exposure, and unknown causes along border 1986-98

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Year

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

En

trie

s

Operation Blockade Launched In El Paso

Thinking About International Migration

Douglas S. Massey

Professor of Sociology and Public Affairs

Princeton University