The Technical Risk Identification and Mitigation System (TRIMS) August 2008

The Technical Risk Identification

and Mitigation System

(TRIMS)

August 2008

Many programs failing or suffering cost/schedule overruns

Defense Science Board studies the problem; publishes findings in

DOD 4245.7-M (The “Willoughby Templates”)

Best Manufacturing Practices Program established to help the U.S. Defense

Industrial Base - BMP conducts first Survey (Texas Instruments)

BMP publishes NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book)

BMP contracts with Bell Labs to write more detail on each Template

First version of PMWS is created

BMP Center of Excellence established in College Park, MD

BMP conducts 100th Survey (Northrop Grumman)

1960-1980

1983-1984

The Beginning of Process-Based Risk Management

Many programs failing or suffering cost/schedule overrunsMany programs failing or suffering cost/schedule overruns

Defense Science Board studies the problem; publishes findings in

DOD 4245.7-M (The “Willoughby Templates”)

1960-19801960-1980

1983-1984

Processed-based risk management came about as

a result of the acquisition problems that occurred

in the ’60s and ’70s.

Processed-based risk management came about as

a result of the acquisition problems that occurred

in the ’60s and ’70s.

Many programs failing or suffering cost/schedule overruns

Defense Science Board studies the problem; publishes findings in Defense Science Board studies the problem; publishes findings in

DOD 4245.7-M (The “Willoughby Templates”)DOD 4245.7-M (The “Willoughby Templates”)

1960-1980

1983-19841983-1984

In 1983, the Defense Science Board convened a group of

academics, government experts, and members of industry

to study the issue.

In 1983, the Defense Science Board convened a group of

academics, government experts, and members of industry

to study the issue.

Money Phasing

Design Reference Mission Profile

Design Requirements

Trade Studies

Design Policy

Design Process

Design Analysis

Parts & Material Selection

Software Design

Computer-Aided Design (CAD)

Design for Testing

Built-In Test (BIT)

Configuration Control

Design Reviews

Design Release

Integrated Test

Failure Reporting System

Uniform Test Report

Software Test

Design Limit

Test, Analyze & Fix (TAAF)

Field Feedback

Manufacturing Plan

Qualify Manufacturing Process

Piece Part Control

Subcontractor Control

Defect Control

Tool Planning

Special Test Equipment (STE)

Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM)

Manufacturing Screening

Transition Plan

Modernization

Factory Improvements

Productivity Center

Logistics Support Analysis

Manpower & Personnel

Support & Test Equipment

Training Materials & Equipment

Spares

Technical Manuals

Manufacturing Strategy

Personnel Requirements

Data Requirements

Technical Risk Assessment

Production Breaks

Problem Areas Identified by DSB

They discovered that most programs failed because of basic engineering processprocess issues,

rather than high-technology issues.

They discovered that most programs failed because of basic engineering processprocess issues,

rather than high-technology issues.

Money Phasing

Design Requirements

Trade Studies

Design Policy

Design Process

Design Analysis

Software Design

Design for Testing

Built-In Test (BIT)

Design Reviews

Design Release

Integrated Test

Uniform Test Report

Software Test

Design Limit

Field Feedback

Manufacturing Plan

Piece Part Control

Defect Control

Tool Planning

Transition Plan

Modernization

Productivity Center

Spares

Technical Manuals

Data Requirements

Production Breaks

They also established that most program failures were the result of one or more of the

47 issues shown here.

They also established that most program failures were the result of one or more of the

47 issues shown here.

FUNDING:FUNDING:

Money Phasing

DESIGN:DESIGN:

Design Requirements

Trade Studies

Design Policy

Design Process

Design Analysis

Software Design

Design for Testing

Built-In Test (BIT)

Design Reviews

Design Release

TEST:TEST:

Integrated Test

Uniform Test Report

Software Test

Design Limit

Field Feedback

PRODUCTION:PRODUCTION:

Manufacturing Plan

Piece Part Control

Defect Control

Tool Planning

TRANSITION:TRANSITION:

Transition Plan

FACILITIES:FACILITIES:

Modernization

Productivity Center

LOGISTICS:LOGISTICS:

Spares

Technical Manuals

MANAGEMENT:MANAGEMENT:

Data Requirements

Production Breaks

These 47 areas were then organized into 8 categories…

DoD 4245.7-M…and the results were published

in DoD 4245.7-M, where they came to be known as

“The Willoughby Templates”.

…and the results were published in DoD 4245.7-M, where they

came to be known as “The Willoughby Templates”.

NAVSO P-6071

In 1986, the Best Manufacturing Practices (BMP) program published

NAVSO P-6071, also known as “The Best Practices Book”

In 1986, the Best Manufacturing Practices (BMP) program published

NAVSO P-6071, also known as “The Best Practices Book”

NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book)

This book takes each of the 47 Template areas described in DoD 4245.7-M,

and identifies the 4 major traps that

programs are likely to encounter.

It identifies the consequences of falling

into each trap, and alarms that indicate that

this might be happening.

It identifies the consequences of falling

into each trap, and alarms that indicate that

this might be happening.

NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book)It also identifies the best practices for

(and the benefits of) avoiding each trap.

It also identifies the best practices for

The book also includes checklist questions covering the best practices for each Template.

• Defense Science Board Studies Determined that 80% of all Programs that Fail, Fail for Engineering not Technology Reasons

• Example: N43 Reports that Over 65% of all Fleet Reliability Problems are Due to Inadequate Design

• February 1998 GAO Report to the Subcommittee on Acquisition & Technology, Committee on Armed Services, U. S. Senate

• Since 1975 Schedule Overruns Average 24%• Weapon Systems Overruns Cost 20% - 40%

• March 2005 GAO Report:• Average Cost Increase Will be 28.5% in Only 4 Years• Reason: “Armed services order hardware with unproven technology,

with too little time allowed for perfecting that technology before contractors attempt to insert it into weapons systems...”

• With Acquisition Reform and Performance Specifications, We Must Monitor the Engineering Process to Understand Program Risks

Some Things To Consider

Do Do NotNot Get Technology Tunnel Vision Get Technology Tunnel Vision

• Defense Science Board Studies Determined that 80% of all Programs that Fail, Fail for Engineering not Technology Reasons

• Example: N43 Reports that Over 65% of all Fleet Reliability Problems are Due to Inadequate Design

• February 1998 GAO Report to the Subcommittee on Acquisition & Technology, Committee on Armed Services, U. S. Senate

• Since 1975 Schedule Overruns Average 24%• Weapon Systems Overruns Cost 20% - 40%

• March 2005 GAO Report:• Average Cost Increase Will be 28.5% in Only 4 Years• Reason: “Armed services order hardware with unproven technology,

with too little time allowed for perfecting that technology before contractors attempt to insert it into weapons systems...”

• With Acquisition Reform and Performance Specifications, We Must Monitor the Engineering Process to Understand Program Risks

Some Things To Consider

Do Do NotNot Get Technology Tunnel Vision Get Technology Tunnel Vision

Unfortunately, too many programs are still having the

same problems today!

Unfortunately, too many programs are still having the

same problems today!

So what is the answer?

TRIMSTRIMSTechnical Risk IdentificationTechnical Risk Identification

& Mitigation System& Mitigation System

• TRIMS (Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System): A Methodology for Doing Knowledge-Based, Process-Oriented Risk Management

• Part of the Program Manager’s WorkStation (PMWS) Tool suite(Navy Owned, Fixed Revision Cycle)

• Outgrowth of DoD 4245.7-M and NAVSO P-6071 Templates

• Fully Compatible with BMPCOE Combined Government / Industry Systems Engineering Model

• Fully Supported: Training Classes, Computer-Based Training,On-line Help, 24-hour Help Desk

What Is TRIMS?

Process Based And Predictive Process Based And Predictive

• TRIMS (Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System): A Methodology for Doing Knowledge-Based, Process-Oriented Risk Management

• Part of the Program Manager’s WorkStation (PMWS) Tool Suite(Navy Owned, Fixed Revision Cycle)

• Outgrowth of DoD 4245.7-M and NAVSO P-6071 Templates

• Fully Compatible with BMPCOE Combined Government / Industry Systems Engineering Model

• Fully Supported: Training Classes, Computer-Based Training,On-line Help, 24-hour Help Desk

What Is TRIMS?

Process Based And Predictive Process Based And Predictive

TRIMS is a process-based risk management tool, that grew out of the checklist questions in NAVSO P-6071.

TRIMS Proactive Methodology

Probability Effect

• Risk Management

• Snapshot Assessments

• Multiple Program Rollups

• Automatic Updates

Milestone Dates

PersonnelAssignments

QuestionWeighting

Due Dates

References

ComplianceStatus

Next Actions

Responsibilities

Action ItemTracking

Mission ProfileScheduleQualityCost

Guidance Documents

EngineeringProcess Model

Statistics

PastExperience

Planning &Tracking

SystemArchitecture

Risk Management

Understanding The Future Effects Of Today's DecisionsUnderstanding The Future Effects Of Today's Decisions

Risk Assessment

ProbabilityProbability EffectEffect

• Risk Management

Milestone Dates

QuestionWeighting

Due Dates

References

ComplianceStatus

Next Actions

Responsibilities

Action ItemTracking

Guidance Documents

Statistics

PastPastExperienceExperience

Planning &Tracking

SystemSystemArchitectureArchitecture

Risk Management

Risk AssessmentRisk Assessment“Risk” is a function of probability and effect. Determining these for

your program is “Risk AssessmentAssessment”.

“Risk” is a function of probability and effect. Determining these for

your program is “Risk AssessmentAssessment”.

Probability Effect

• Risk Management

Milestone Dates

QuestionWeighting

Due Dates

References

ComplianceStatus

Next Actions

Responsibilities

Action ItemTracking

Guidance Documents

Statistics

PastExperience

Planning &Planning &TrackingTracking

SystemArchitecture

Risk ManagementRisk Management

Risk Assessment

To do “Risk ManagementManagement” you also have to do planning and tracking: establish a plan to mitigate your risks, and then

track it to ensure that the plan is being followed, and that it is

having the desired effect!

To do “Risk ManagementManagement” you also have to do planning and tracking: establish a plan to mitigate your risks, and then

track it to ensure that the plan is being followed, and that it is

having the desired effect!

TRIMSTRIMS

Probability Effect

• Risk ManagementRisk Management

• Snapshot AssessmentsSnapshot Assessments

• Multiple Program RollupsMultiple Program Rollups

• Automatic UpdatesAutomatic Updates

Milestone Milestone DatesDates

PersonnelPersonnelAssignmentsAssignments

QuestionQuestionWeightingWeighting

Due DatesDue Dates

ReferencesReferences

ComplianceComplianceStatusStatus

RisksRisks

Next ActionsNext Actions

ResponsibilitiesResponsibilities

Action ItemAction ItemTrackingTracking

Guidance Documents

Statistics

PastExperience

Planning &Tracking

SystemArchitecture

Risk Management

Risk Assessment

TRIMS provides all of thesecapabilities, plusplus analysis, reporting, and

workload-reduction features!

TRIMS provides all of thesecapabilities, plusplus analysis, reporting, and

workload-reduction features!

TRIMS Identifies the TRIMS Identifies the RootRoot Causes of Cost & Schedule Problems Causes of Cost & Schedule Problems

Proactive vs. Reactive

Schedule Slippage

Cost Overruns

The TRIMS philosophy recognizes that beforebefore you

have schedule slippages and cost overruns, you have

technical issues.

technical issues.Technical Issues

Schedule Slippage

Cost Overruns

And beforebefore you have technical issues, you have failures in

your engineering processes.

And beforebefore you have technical issues, you have failures in

your engineering processes.

Technical Issues

Schedule Slippage

Cost Overruns

Process Risks

Technical Issues

Reactive

Proactive

Schedule Slippage

Cost Overruns

Process RisksAnalyzing your processes Analyzing your processes

can provide early indication can provide early indication of potential problems.of potential problems.

Analyzing your processes Analyzing your processes can provide early indication can provide early indication

of potential problems.of potential problems.

Process Risks

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6

““A ‘Problem’ Is A Risk Whose Time Has Come”A ‘Problem’ Is A Risk Whose Time Has Come”

Evolution of Risks

Another way to look at this...

Process Risks

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6

Evolution of Risks

A ProcessProcess issue that is left unchecked can lead to one or more

ProductProduct issues.

Process Risks

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6

Evolution of Risks

Product Risks

Process Risks

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6

Evolution of Risks

Product Risks

And ProductProduct issues that are left unchecked

can lead to ProblemsProblems.

Process Risks

Product Risks

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6

Evolution of Risks

Problems

Process Risks Problems

Product Risks

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6

Evolution of Risks

By focusing on good engineering processes, it

becomes possible to avoid many typical problems that

programs encounter.

Process Risks Problems

Product Risks

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6

Evolution of Risks

programs encounter.

Design Test Production

Cost To Mitigate Increases Exponentially

We also know that the cost of resolving

issues tends to increase by [roughly] an order of magnitude

from one phase to the next.

We also know that the cost of resolving

issues tends to increase by [roughly] an order of magnitude

from one phase to the next.

Process Risks

Product Risks

Problems

Risk Management or Damage Control?Risk Management or Damage Control?

Cost To Mitigate Increases Exponentially

Design Test Production

So, focusing on process risks just

makes good economic sense.

So, focusing on process risks just

makes good economic sense.

PRODUCT TQM

FUNDING MoneyPhasing

DESIGN TEST PRODUCTION FACILITIES LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT

TRANSITION PLAN

• Design Refer. Mission Profile

• Design Requirements

• Trade Studies

• Design Policy

• Design Process

• Design Analysis

• Parts & Mater. Selection

• Software Design

• Computer-Aided Design (CAD)

• Design for Testing

• Built-In Test (BIT)

• Configuration Control

• Design Reviews

• Design Release

• Integrated Test

• Failure Reporting System

• Uniform Test Report

• Software Test

• Design Limit

• Life

• Test, Analyze & Fix (TAAF)

• Field Feedback

• Manufacturing Plan

• Qualify Manufacturing Process

• Piece Part Control

• Subcontractor Control

• Defect Control

• Tool Planning

• Special Test Equipment (STE)

• CAM

• Manufacturing Screening

• Modernization

• Factory Improvements

• Productivity Center

• Logistics Support Analysis

• Manpower & Personnel

• Support & Test Equipment

• Training Materials & Equipment

• Spares

• Technical Manuals

• Manufacturing Strategy

• Personnel Requirements

• Data Requirements

• Technical Risk Assessment

• Production Breaks

TRIMS Baseline Templates Shown here are the original “Willoughby Templates”,

from DoD 4245.7-M.

Shown here are the original “Willoughby Templates”,

from DoD 4245.7-M.

PRODUCT TQM

TRANSITION PLAN

• Trade Studies

• Design Policy

• Design Process

• Design Analysis

• Software Design

• Design Reviews

• Design Release

• Integrated Test

• Software Test

• Design Limit

• Life

• Field Feedback

• Defect Control

• Tool Planning

• CAM

• Modernization

• Spares

TRIMS Baseline Templates

CAM•Manufacturing Screening

from DoD 4245.7-M.

PRODUCT TQM

CostAssessment

TRANSITION PLAN

New PMWSTemplatesNew PMWSTemplates

• Trade Studies

• Design Policy

• Design Process

• Design Analysis

• Software Design

• Design Reviews

• Design Release

• Concept Studies & Analysis

• Bread Board Development

• Brass Board Development

• Specification Dev/Allocation/ Validation

• Design for Assembly

• Prototype Development & Review

• Integrated Test

• Software Test

• Design Limit

• Life

• Field Feedback

• TEMP Development/ Execution

• Software Simulator

• Defect Control

• Tool Planning

• CAM

• Production Fabrication

• Environmental Issues

• Modernization

• Field Visits/Site Surveys

• Spares

• Logistics Analysis Documentation

• Determining Defining Need for System

• Prepare Requirement Documents

• Quality Assurance

• Design/Milestone Review Planning

• Make or Buy Decisions

• Technology Base Analysis

• Schedule & Planning

• Dim. Manuf. Sources & Mat. Shortage (DMSMS)

TRIMS Baseline Templates

CAM•Manufacturing Screening

•Production Fabrication•Environmental Issues

The TRIMS SE Model includes the original 47 Templates, plusplus another

21 templates that BMPCOE has added over the years – the

principles have been around for 20 years, but the model is up-to-date!

The TRIMS SE Model includes the original 47 Templates, plusplus another

21 templates that BMPCOE has added over the years – the

principles have been around for 20 years, but the model is up-to-date!

3 Tiers: Category

Template

Knowledge

Question

4.0 Design

4.6 Design Analysis

4.6.1 Do the contractor's corporate standards identify design analysis as an integral part of the design process?

TRIMS TailoringTRIMS Hierarchy

Design Test Production Facilities LogisticsManagementFunding TransitionPlan

The TRIMS approach to risk is based on “Process Templates”, that contain smart questions.

3 Tiers: Category

Template

Knowledge

Question

4.0 Design

4.6 Design Analysis

These questions help determine your risk exposure in each

process-risk area.

These questions help determine your risk exposure in each

process-risk area.4.6.1 Do the contractor's corporate standards identify design analysis as an integral part of the design process?

UserAdded

Questions

UserAdded

Questions

3 Tiers: Category

Template

Knowledge

Question

4.0 Design

4.6 Design Analysis

TRIMS is flexible…

You can add your own Questions to any Template.

TRIMS is flexible…

You can add your own Questions to any Template.

UserAdded

Templates

UserAdded

TemplatesUser

AddedQuestions

UserAdded

Questions

3 Tiers: Category

Template

Knowledge

Question

4.0 Design

4.6 Design Analysis

You can add your own Templates...

UserAdded

Templates

UserAdded

TemplatesUser

AddedQuestions

UserAdded

Questions

3 Tiers: Category

Template

Knowledge

Question

4.0 Design

4.6 Design Analysis

User Added

Categories

…or even add entire Categories!

3 Tiers: Category

Template

Knowledge

Question

4.0 Design

4.6 Design Analysis

TRIMS Tailoring

You can even start with a blank sheet of paper,

and build an entire model from scratch!

You can even start with a blank sheet of paper,

and build an entire model from scratch!

Tailoring TRIMS To Your Needs

• Identify Risks Before they Become Problems

• Build YOUR Knowledge into TRIMS– Use the Systems Engineering Knowledge Base as a Starting Point for

A Good Engineering Process

• Create a Concrete, Repeatable Process for Evaluating & Comparing Programs & Contractors

• Ease the Learning Curve for New Employees

• Retain Knowledge of Lost Employees

• Share Knowledge

• To Maximize Benefits of Using TRIMS– Apply as Early as Possible in Program Life– Apply to All Subcontractors, Divisions & Vendors Involved– Use Tool Regularly to Prioritize Resources & Make Decisions

Some of the benefits of TRIMS’ flexibility.

TRIMS Knowledge Models

TRIMS Has Many Applications TRIMS Has Many Applications

• Existing (Released) Models• Systems Engineering

• Software Risk Engineering (Carnegie Mellon)

• Circuit Card Testability

• Interoperability and Integration

• Existing (Beta) Models• Human Factors Engineering

• Development (Prototype) Models• Management

• Port Security/Force Protection

• SBIR ◄ ◄ ◄

TRIMS can be used to track any process-based

risk model… and it comes with a variety of

knowledge models.

TRIMS can be used to track any process-based

risk model… and it comes with a variety of

knowledge models.

A Quick Look At TRIMS

A high level view givesan instant “snapshot”

of your program.

A high level view givesan instant “snapshot”

of your program.

Answering the “Smart Questions” helps determine risk levels;

“Next Actions” help mitigate process risks.

Answering the “Smart Questions” helps determine risk levels;

“Next Actions” help mitigate process risks.

A variety of filtering options make it easy

to review and analyze risk data.

A variety of filtering options make it easy

to review and analyze risk data.

APM Missile Body [Process Risks]

Likelihood of Occurrence

Impact (Cf) - Performance Impact/Risk Profile

1 2 3 4 5

Performance

2 A-1.1 Money Phasing1 A-1.2 Cost Assessment5 A-2.1 Design Reference Mission Profile4 A-2.2 Design Requirements3 A-2.3 Trade Studies4 A-2.4 Design Policy4 A-2.5 Design Process5 A-2.6 Design Analysis4 A-2.8 Software Design4 A-2.9 Computer-Aided Design (CAD)5 A-2.10 Design for Testing4 A-2.11 Built-In Test (BIT)4 A-2.12 Configuration Control4 A-2.13 Design Reviews3 A-2.15 Concept Studies and Analysis4 A-2.16 Bread Board Development4 A-3.1 Integrated Test4 A-3.7 Test, Analyze, And Fix (TAAF)4 A-3.9 TEMP Development/Execution4 A-4.3 Piece Part Control3 A-4.4 Subcontractor Control3 A-4.11 Environmental Issues1 A-6.4 Field Visits/Site Surveys4 A-7.1 Logistics Support Analysis4 A-7.2 Manpower and Personnel4 A-7.3 Support and Test Equipment4 A-7.7 Logistics Analysis/Documentation3 A-8.2 Personnel Requirements2 A-8.3 Data Requirements

A-4.11A-8.2

A-4.4A-2.3A-2.15

A-3.7A-2.8

A-4.3A-2.13

A-2.12A-2.11A-2.2A-2.5A-2.4A-7.1A-2.9A-3.1A-7.7A-3.9A-7.2A-2.16

A-2.10

Printed: 4 Apr 2005

You can print reports at both the summary level...

A Quick Look At TRIMSAPM Missile Body [Product Risks]

B-1.1.2 SRB Fuel

Milestone

Last Updated

Safety Risk

Likelihood of Occurrence

1 2 3 4 5Impact Factor (Cf)

03/31/2005

Impacts: -P |

Performer

Derek Designer

Risk ID: B-1.1.2.1 Fuel Components Mixing Risk Rating: High

Description: Fuel components mixing in present fac ility may not be possible without safety upgrade.

Notes: Just testing...

Action Due Date Mitigation Actions

1 3 Apr 2005 Look up current safety regulations

2 14 Apr 2005 Identify necessary upgrades

3 23 Apr 2005 Conduct Safety T raining

4 4 Jun 2005 Install new equipment

Page: 1 Printed: 4 Apr 2005

…and in more detail!…and in more detail!

TRIMS - Total Risk Management

PP33RMRM

Problem, Product & Problem, Product & ProcessProcess Risk Management, Risk Management,

in a Single Tool!in a Single Tool!

How To Get Help Using TRIMS

• Use the Help menus

• Use the Computer-Based Training (CBT) Videos • Available on PMWS CD and on BMP’s Website• These are Animated & Narrated Tours Showing Each Step of

Using TRIMS

• Call our 24 Hour Helpdesk 301-405-9963

• E-Mail the BMP Center at helpdesk@bmpcoe.org

• Arrange a Training Session

Help Is Available Help Is Available

3 Things To Remember…

• DoD 4245.7-M / NAVSO P-6071

• The Transition from Development to Production

• The Best Practices Book

• TRIMS

• Free Tool – Download from www.bmpcoe.org

• P3RM – Supports Problem, Product, and Process Risk Tracking!

• BMP Center of Excellence

• An Available Resource

• Call our 24 Hour Helpdesk 301-405-9963

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