The TBEST Framework for Data Analysis and Forecasting

The TBEST Framework for Data Analysis and Forecasting

September 17, 2013Center for Urban Transportation Research | University of South Florida

TBEST

Transit Demand Modeling/Analysis Software developed bythe Florida Department of Transportation Office of Freight, Logistics and Passenger Operations

FDOT GoalProvide a “Comprehensive Transit Network Modeling, Management and Analysis Software with a focus on short to mid-term transit planning available to all Florida transit agencies”

Support Agency Transit Development Plans (TDP):

TBEST is an FDOT approved ridership estimation methodology

Transit Boardings Estimation and Simulation Tool

TBEST UtilizationProvide workflow support for the following:• Service Planning• Comprehensive Operational Analysis

(COA)• Grant Applications• FTA Title VI Analysis• Mobility Studies• NTD Route Miles• Market Analysis• Network Accessibility

Operations

HastusTrapezeOthers…

Short and mid-term

TBEST

Long Range

Cube Voyager

TransCADOthers…

Transit Planning/Forecasting Software

Framework Components

• Model Development• Application• Analysis• Reporting and Output

Managing Components

TBEST Transit System • Composed of model scenarios

which contain editable routes, stops, socio-economic data and network attributes

• All GIS/database files managed internally

• Download pre-formatted SE data• Managed Model Validation • Customizable model structure• Easily create current or future year

scenarios

Transit Data Management

Supporting DataDataset Source FDOT

Provided

Socio-Demographic Census 2010 and ACSEmployment InfoUSA (or local zonal data)Land Use (Parcel-Level) Florida Department of

RevenueNetwork Download or GTFSSpecial Generators AgencySocio-Economic Growth Rates Bureau of Economic and

Business Research

Observed Ridership for Validation

Agency

TBEST GIS Specifications

• Desktop application requiring ArcGIS 10.1 Basic license • Utilizes ArcGIS Engine for map display, spatial analysis and

network editing• ESRI personal geodatabase stores transit layers and socio-

economic data geometry• Demographics, service characteristics, and model output

stored in SQL Server 2008 R2 (Express or Enterprise editions)• No Network Analyst or ArcSDE required• Utilizes ESRI Map Services, Bing Maps or preformatted .mxd for

base map• No fee for TBEST except ArcGIS license

Model Specifications• Micro-level model which simulates transit ridership at the level

of the individual stop: by route, direction and time period • Designed to capture both walk market and network accessibility• Model equations estimate direct and transfer boardings• Accommodate service features of fare, speed, frequency, etc.• Accommodate fundamental differences in route types (local,

circulator, express)• Model validation process allows TBEST to adapt to different

urban locations without developing new model equations (transferable)

Model EquationsUsers are able to maintain multiple model structures which can be applied to model scenarios

TBEST is installed with two model structures, the classic TBEST Model which utilizesthe Census and Employment data and the new TBEST Land Use Model which includes trip-generation from parcel land use data.

New models coming online in Los Angeles and Oregon– LA model will include specific equations for Bus and Rail– Oregon model will include customization of the parcel level land use model

Available Models

BRT SensitivityTBEST now supports BRT route definition and model sensitivity

How it worksUsers specify the implementation level of specific route-level BRT characteristics and TBEST will adjust base ridership forecasts with an empirically derived adjustment factor

Network Interoperability• GTFS Import

– Imported networks for all FL agencies with GTFS feeds

– Also used nationally in Ft. Worth, Portland, Los Angeles, Savannah

• GTFS Export– Export TBEST network into GTFS– Added TBEST attributes to exported data

including ridership and stop amenities• ArcGIS

– Export TBEST maps and data into ArcGIS– Import route alignments into TBEST from

outside data sources– Export “loaded networks” into geodatabases

Scenario Modifications

Service Supply Adjustments

Category Changes

Operating Strategies

Headway Adjustment

Short TurningRoute Splitting

Through Routing

Schedule Changes

Running Time Adjustments

Schedule Coordination between Routes

Span of Service Adjustments

Alignment Changes

Extend Routes

Shorten Routes

New Routes

System ChangesService Redistribution

Network Structure

Fare PolicyFirst-Boarding Fare

Transfer Fare

Socio-Economic Forecasts System level, Zonal level, DRI/Corridor level, Route, Segment or Stop level

Demand Adjustments

Model ReportingStop, Segment, Route and Regional distribution reports with supporting maps

Model ReportingScenario Comparison and Mobility Threshold service recommendations

Model ReportingTDP Summary ReportSummarizes annual service area pop, employment, performance, and service for all scenarios in a TBEST transit system

Market Analysis• Works to summarize the intensity and distribution of

land use, socio-economic, and employment data for a given transit market in a current year or future year socio-economic setting

• Performed on existing or proposed network structure or within specific DRI’s/corridors to determine the viability of transit options in the area

• Independent of the TBEST modeling capabilities

Market AnalysisLand Use Market Analysis

Market AnalysisSocio-Economic Market Analysis

Market AnalysisFTA Title VI Analysis

Network Accessibility Analysis

• Combines TBEST transit networking origin/destination capabilities with market and model results to produce an interactive summarization of network accessible markets and model output

• Network Accessibility Build - core of the accessibility calculation which populates an origin/destination matrix for each stop in the network

• Summarizes both outflow and inflow markets and ridership from a selected stop, multiple stops or from a geographic area by time of day

• Filter results by trip time and number of transfers

Network Accessibility Analysis

Network Accessible Market Analysis

Implementation Results

Win-Win-Win SituationFDOT standardized model platform for consistent TDP ridership reporting across agencies

Agencies have a pre-built methodology for estimating ridership + multiple workflow support

Consultants using TBEST for TDP, COA, etc. have an easy-to-implement ridership estimation solution with available data, tools and modeling capabilities

Steps UnderwaySeptember 2013

– Release TBEST 4.1– Contains online Video Tutorials – Classroom training early 2014

January 2014– Enhanced FTA Title VI and Environmental Justice Analysis and Reporting

June 2014 – Parcel Editor– Integrate Observed Ridership for COA support

October 2014– Network Accessibility Composite Measures

Contact Information

Rodney BunnerTransportation Technology Specialistrbunner@cutr.usf.edurodbunner@hotmail.com727-455-4059

Gabrielle MatthewsFDOT Project ManagerGabrielle.Matthews@dot.state.fl.us 850-414-4532

www.tbest.org

Thank You!