The Sun Corridor Seminar: PAF 591, Spring 2006

The Sun Corridor Seminar:

PAF 591, Spring 2006

Final Class Presentation

Instructors:Robert Lang, Virginia Tech

John Hall, ASU

What’s in This Talk?

Review of Megapolitan Area Geography

Arizona Sun Corridor Geography The Sun Corridor’s Ten Urban Realms Central Class Findings What’s in This Talk? Next Steps in the

Sun Corridor Project

Arizona Republic

March 2006

Megas In the News

The Reality is That They Have Already Statistically Merged

Business 2.0 November 2005Megapolitan Area Centerfold

Original 2005 Megapolitan Geography

2006 Metropolitan HierarchyTypes Description Examples

Metropolitan Current definition of the Census Bureau

Pittsburgh, Boise

Metroplex Two or more metropolitan areas that share overlapping suburbs but the main principal cities do not touch

Dallas/Ft. Worth, Washington/ Baltimore

CorridorMegapolitan

Two or more metropolitan areas with anchor principal cities between 75 and 150 miles apart that form an extended linear urban area along an Interstate

Arizona Sun Corridor (Phoenix/Tucson),SanSac (San Francisco/Sacramento)

GalacticMegapolitan

Three or more metropolitan areas with anchor principal cities over 150 miles apart that form an urban web over a broad area that is laced with Interstates

Piedmont, Great Lakes Crescent

Megaplex Two megapolitan areas that are proximate and occupy common cultural and physical environments and maintain dense business linkages

Megalopolis and Great Lakes Crescent, Sun Corridor and SoCal

Evolving 20th CenturyMetropolitan Form

21st Century Corridor Megapolitan Form

Urban Realms

ArizonaSun

Corridor

Arizona Sun Corridor’sTypes of Urban Realms

Types Description Realms

Urban Core Original core of metropolitan development. Cores are dense and often built out.

Central ValleyTucson Valley

Favored Quarter

The most affluent realm containing upscale housing, retail, and office space.

Northeast ValleyFoothills

Maturing Suburbs

Rapidly developing suburbs with mature older sections and booming edges.

East Valley West Valley

Emerging Exurbs

The most scattered and detached urban development in the region. Exurbs contain the most affordable housing.

Mid CorridorNorthwest ValleySanta Cruz ValleySan Pedro Valley

Arizona 2000 Population Center for the Future of Arizona

2000

Arizona 2000 Population Center for the Future of Arizona

2050

Housing and Equity

Housing/Equity Issues in the Sun Corridor Realms

Housing Market Values by Realm Housing Appreciation Rates by Realm Housing Burden and Overcrowding by Realm Comparisons between Phoenix and Tucson

Housing Markets – Simultaneity? Comparison between Phoenix & Tucson

Housing Markets Changing demographics will change the form

of housing.

The Sun Corridor: 10-20 % Average Annualized Rate of Domestic Net Migration – Where Will These People Live?

Source: “Domestic Net Migration in the United States: 2000-2004”, U.S. Census Bureau, 4/20/06(www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/p25-1135.pdf)

The Sun Corridor is a Destination for

People who are Relocating

Source: “Domestic Net Migration in the United States: 2000-2004”, U.S. Census Bureau, 4/20/06(www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/p25-1135.pdf)

“The West is The Best”- Jim Morrison, The End, 1967

Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05

Home Price Appreciation in Selected MetrosLA

Las Vegas

PhoenixTucson

Austin

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Estimated Median Market Value

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

NorthwestValley

West Valley CentralValley

NortheastValley

East Valley MidCorridor

Foothills TucsonValley

Santa CruzValley

San PedroValley

Source: www.zillow.com

Housing Appreciation

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

NorthwestValley

West Valley Central Valley NortheastValley

East Valley Mid Corridor Foothills Tucson Valley Santa CruzValley

San PedroValley

1 Year 5 Years 10 YearsSource: www.zillow.com

The Sun Corridor had 3 out of the Top 20 Metropolitan Statistical Areas and Divisions with Highest Rates of House Price Appreciation

Percent Change in House Prices with MSA Rankings

(4th Quarter 2005 House Price Index)

(Period Ended December 31, 2005)

MSA Ranking 1 Yr. Qtr. 5 Yr.

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale 1 39.67 7.77 93.02

Prescott 5 31.89 6.93 86.72

Tucson 15 30.02 7.00 81.93Source: “Housing Price Appreciation Continues At Robust Pace”, Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), 3/1/06

Housing Burden

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

NorthwestValley

West Valley Central Valley NortheastValley

East Valley Mid Corridor Foothills Tucson Valley Santa CruzValley

San PedroValley

Cost Burden Severe Cost Burden

Source: www.dataplace.org

Overcrowded Housing

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

NorthwestValley

West Valley Central Valley NortheastValley

East Valley Mid Corridor Foothills Tucson Valley Santa CruzValley

San PedroValley

Source: www.dataplace.org

Phoenix and Tucson both outpace comparison cities

Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05

2005 Annual Appreciation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

San Diego Los Angeles Las Vegas Phoenix Tucson Albuquerque Denver Dallas Austin

Phoenix and Tucson both outpace comparison cities

Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05

5 Year Cumulative Appreciation

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

San Diego Los Angeles Las Vegas Phoenix Tucson Albuquerque Denver Dallas Austin

Phoenix and Tucson Comparison

Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05

Average Price, Homes Sold on MLS

Phoenix

Tucson

0

10

20

30

40

50

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Percent Change vs. Year Ago

The Impact of the Emerging Latino Demographic Median age of White population in Arizona: 40

Median Latino population: 24 – These are the home buyers of the next 30 years.

Survey data indicates different housing preferences for this market.– Inclusion of elderly family members in household.– Access to public transportation and nearby shopping a

priority– ‘Country-club lifestyle’ not as attractive– Less resistance to attached housing

The emergence of Latino home buyers will change the urban form of the Sun Corridor.

Golf Links to Social Links:

Education

Education in the Sun Corridor

How do the Sun Corridor’s K-12 and higher education systems prepare students for the higher level, often high-tech jobs of the future?

“Living on the Kindness of Strangers”

• Discrepancy between those who are transplants to the Sun Corridor and those who are educated in the Sun Corridor

• The percentage of those over 25 with a bachelor’s degree is above the national average

• The percentage of those over 25 with a high school diploma is at the national average

English Language Learners (ELL)

Spanish is the primary home language of 20% of K-12 students in the Sun Corridor (Nat. Average 10%)

Proposition 203 ended most Bilingual Education programs and replaced them with Structured English Immersion (SEI) programs

Higher Education in the Sun Corridor

In the 2006 U.S. News and World report College Rankings, the Sun Corridor had only one University in the top 100 (University of Arizona-tied for 97th)

Every other megapolitan region has at least one university ranked higher than the U of A

Peninsula megapolitan is the next lowest with the University of Miami, tied for 55th

Community Colleges

Sun Corridor is a national leader

The Maricopa County Community System is the largest in the nation (over 250,000 students)

Community colleges serve a preparation function for four-year colleges and engage in job training

Leading Realms in Higher Education

State Universities-Main or Branch Campuses

Other Educational Institutions of Note

Central Valley ASU West, ASU Downtown Center

Several community colleges Thunderbird School of Management

East Valley Main Campus ASUASU East

Several community colleges

Tucson Valley University of Arizona Pima Community College

Exurban Realms

State Universities- Main or Branch campuses

Other Institutions of Note

Northwest Valley None Prescott College Yavapai College Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

Santa Cruz Valley None None

San Pedro Valley None Cochise College

Very Underserved Realms

State Universities- Main or Branch Campuses

Other Institutions of Note

West Valley None One community college

Northeast Valley None One community college

Mid-Corridor None One community college

Foothills None None

Economy

Topics

Composition of the Economy Realm Share of Development Employment Centers

Economic Composition Leading Industries

– Construction/Real Estate

– Consumer Services Secondary Industries

– Aerospace– Producer Services

• F.I.RE• Law, Marketing

– High-Tech/Bio– Military– Entrepreneurial

Opportunities– Baby Boomer Bio– Western Product

Gateway– Next Generation

Infrastructure

Market Share

Inventory – Office Development

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

CentralValley

NE Valley East Valley West Valley TucsonMetro

Source: CB Richard Ellis, 2005

Inventory – Industrial Development

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

CentralValley

NE Valley East Valley WestValley

TucsonMetro

Source: CB Richard Ellis, 2005

Inventory – Retail Development

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

CentralValley

NE Valley East Valley West Valley TucsonMetro

Source: CB Richard Ellis, 2005

Realm by RealmAssets, Opportunities & Challenges

Employment Centers

Economic Development in the Realms

Northwest Valley: The Room Upstairs

– Assets• Prescott Airport

– Opportunities• Anthem• Lake Pleasant

– Challenges• Connectivity to

Phoenix• Transportation

Corridors

West Valley: The Sleeping Giant– Assets

• Available Land Mass• Airports

– Opportunities• Future freeway

corridors (303, 801)• Building [sub]urban

core from scratch

– Challenges• Getting someone to

test the water

Economic Development in the Realms

Central Valley: Employment Center

– Assets• Downtown Phoenix• Sky Harbor• I-10 Distribution

Corridor– Opportunities

• Redevelopment• Stadium/Arena

– Challenges• Aging Infrastructure• Suburban Flight• Residential

Composition

Northeast Valley: The Crown Jewel– Assets

• Camelback Corridor• Scottsdale Airpark• Deer Valley Airport

– Opportunities• Old Towne

Redevelopment• Palisene

– Challenges• Affordability• Infill Opportunity

Economic Development in the Realms

East Valley: Young & Emerging

– Assets• ASU• Chandler/Price

Corridor• Mesa Airports

– Opportunities• SanTan Corridor• Original Core

Redevelopment– Challenges

• Available Land

Mid Corridor: In the Crosshairs– Assets

• Phoenix Regional Airport• 1-10 and I-8

– Opportunities• Land, Land, Land• Intermodel Hub of

Region– Challenges

• Cohesive Land & Transportation Planning

• Sense of place as connecting point between Phoenix and Tucson

Economic Development in the Realms

Foothills: Uptown– Assets

• Wealth• Resorts

– Opportunities• Oro Valley corridor• Marana

– Challenges• Connectivity to

Tucson Metro and the Mid Corridor

Tucson Valley: Downtown– Assets

• UofA• Downtown Tucson

– Opportunities• Employment Center

serving all 4 Tucson realms

– Challenges• Transportation

Economic Development in the Realms

Santa Cruz Valley: The Gateway

– Assets• I-19

– Opportunities• Transition center

between Mexico/US• I-19 connection

to/from Mexico

– Challenges• Connectivity to

other realms

San Pedro Valley: Still Camouflaged– Assets

• Fort Huachuca

– Opportunities• Transition center

between Mexico/US• I-10 connection to El

Paso

– Challenges• Connectivity to other

realms

Infrastructure

Population Growth=More Congestion

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

NorthernCorridor

Mid Corridor Tucson Valleyand Foothills

20022020

Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled, per region(in millions of miles)

Highway Projects in Sun Corridor

Projects in the Sun Corridor—Filling the Gaps

CANAMEX

Housing Units2010

Sun Corridor pop. weighted to north

Airports follow the people …

2010

PHX: 20 million passengers504,000 air carrier operations

TUC: 4 million passengers43,000 air carrier operations

Northern tier’s realms dominateSun Corridor aviation

Housing Units2010Housing Units2050

Pop. balance shifts south

2050

?

Where will the next PHX be?

Dallas-Fort Worth = centralized model– Less complex, for passengers, industry– Better control of environmental issues – Requires authority

Los Angeles = reliever system– Redundancy– Complex airspace, connection, access– Shares economic burden, boom

Recent trends PHX = LAX

Is the Sun Corridor DFW or LAX?

MAG, ADOT and others pushing for it Lack of connection between north, south,

Mid Increasing population pressure from Mid Commuter rail vs. light rail: access from

both north, south and Mid

And will rail be included?

Freeways/Highways:– Congestion—Central Corridor– Tucson must build highways– Need for increased planning between realms– Revenue challenge

Aviation– Current population imbalance drives reliever system,

LAX style– Southward population shift may demand regional

airport in Mid-Corridor– Regional airport, population pressure may push rail

effort

In and Out of the Sun Corridor

Environment and Open Space

Active Management Areas

AMA Annual Use

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

PrescottAMA

PhoenixAMA

PinalAMA

TucsonAMA

SantaCruzAMA

AMA Annual Use (acre-feet)

Sun Corridor: Water

Sun Corridor: Water Infrastructure

Salt River Project watershed

Central Arizona Project

Groundwater

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

Source: CAP

WestValley

NortheastValley

EastValley

TucsonValley

SantaCruz

Valley

SanPedroValley

CAP Annual Permitted Recharge Capacity (acre-feet)

*The Northwest, Central, Mid Corridor, and Foothills realms have no pumping stations

Air Quality2004 Annual Daily Average

05

1015202530354045

Source: AZDEQ

Particle Matter less than 10 Microns

Open Space

Open Space

Environmental Impact Economic Impact Preservation of significant areas Quality of Life

Effective Open Space Conservation Local political and constituent support Strong state enabling legislation Healthy local economy Community’s public financing capacity

– Borrowing history– Bonding capacity– Degree of fiscal power and authority– Tax base

Open Space and the Realms

What Future?

Conclusions

General Sun Corridor Key Policy Implications The Sun Corridor is the Fastest Growing

Megapolitan—Especially The West Valley The Sun Corridor’s Interstate Network is Designed

for Inter not Intra-Metropolitan Trips Megapolitan-Level Policies for Transportation,

Environmental Pres. and Economic Development Plan for Urban Realms—Each Realm Needs

Some Measure of Autonomy But Realms also Need More Effective Integration

and Coordination

Specific Urban Realm Key Policy Implications Core Realms

– Infill and Redevelopment Favored Quarter Realms

– Job/Housing Balance and Affordable Housing Maturing Suburbs Realms

– Create Mixed Use Centers Emerging Exurban Realms

– Open Space Preservation

Next Steps

June 2006 – Rollout of Key Findings Including Projections for Population, Employment, Housing, and Commercial Construction in a Joint ASU-VT Press Conference

Fall 2006 – Morrison Institute Publishes Sun Corridor Final Report