The Scottish Question, Six Months On - Blogs · 3/27/2015  · The Scottish Question, Six Months On...

The Scottish Question, Six Months OnAilsa Henderson and James Mitchell

University of Edinburgh

Transatlantic Seminar Series27 March, 2015

What do we know about referendums?

• Limited theorising of referendum preferences (Hobolt)• Often take place in low cue, low information environments (Franklin;

Hobolt) but variation (Leduc; deVreese and Semetko)• Self-determination referendums an exception

• High cue, high information environments• Emotive, binary issue• Raises the stakes for losers’ consent

• So not one ‘Scottish question’, but three• Who voted No and who voted Yes?• Did the campaign matter?• What are the implications of the referendum vote for Scottish public life?

Scottish Referendum Study• ESRC funded (Ailsa Henderson, Rob Johns, Chris Carman, James

Mitchell)• Question completion for waves 1 and 2• 3 wave internet survey, fieldwork YouGov (split sample BES, SES)

• Wave 1: 22 August-17 September (rolling cross section)• Wave 2: 22 -26 September (small and large questionnaire)• Wave 3: March 2015

• Sample size wave 1: 4849• Sample size wave 2: 3719 (across 2 surveys)

1. Who voted No (and who voted Yes)?

Demographics I

46.8%

56.6%

45.9%

81.6%

44.0%

59.1%

51.3%

47.3%

72.1%

57.1%

53.2%

43.4%

54.1%

18.4%

56.0%

40.9%

48.7%

52.7%

27.9%

42.9%

MEN

WOMEN

NONE

CHURCH OF ENGLAND

CATHOLIC

PROTESTANT

OTHER

SCOTLAND

RUK

OUK

SEX

RELI

G D

ENO

MBI

RTH

PL

ACE

No Yes

Demographics: Age

46.0%

46.1%

49.4%

52.9%

56.3%

65.7%

54.0%

53.9%

50.6%

47.1%

43.7%

34.3%

16-29

30-39

40-49

50-59

60-69

70+

No Yes

Demographics: How younger people voted

37.5%

48.6%

44.8%

46.1%

49.4%

52.9%

56.3%

65.7%

62.5%

51.4%

55.2%

53.9%

50.6%

47.1%

43.7%

34.3%

16-19

20-24

25-29

30-39

40-49

50-59

60-69

70+

No Yes

Demographics II

53.2%

55.5%

57.6%

43.6%

52.3%

52.9%

38.1%

64.6%

58.3%

46.4%

46.8%

44.5%

42.4%

56.4%

47.7%

47.1%

61.9%

35.4%

41.7%

53.6%

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

NO DEGREE

DEGREE

SOCIAL RENTER

OWNER-OCCUPIER

MIDDLE

WORKING

INCO

ME

QU

ART

ILES

EDU

CAT

ION

TEN

URE

CLA

SS

No Yes

National identity and Leadership

7.6%

36.1%

79.1%

11.4%

39.6%

81.4%

87.6%

90.0%

92.4%

63.9%

20.9%

88.6%

60.4%

18.6%

12.4%

10.0%

7-10

4-6

0-3

SCOTTISH NOT BRITISH

MORE SCOTTISH THAN BRITISH

EQUALLY SCOTTISH AND BRITISH

MORE BRITISH THAN SCOTTISH

BRITISH NOT SCOTTISH

LIKE

SA

LMO

ND

NAT

ION

AL

IDEN

TITY

No Yes

Perceived costs of a “No” vote

9.9%

31.3%

73.3%

90.0%

88.9%

12.2%

49.3%

79.5%

94.0%

81.8%

90.1%

68.7%

26.7%

10.0%

11.1%

87.8%

50.7%

20.5%

6.0%

18.2%

VERY LIKELY

LIKELY

NEITHER LIKELY NOR UNLIKELY

UNLIKELY

VERY UNLIKELY

VERY LIKELY

LIKELY

NEITHER LIKELY NOR UNLIKELY

UNLIKELY

VERY UNLIKELY

IF U

NIO

N:

SPEN

DIN

G C

UTS

IF U

NIO

N: W

EATH

G

AP

No Yes

Perceived costs of a “Yes” vote

9.7%

22.8%

47.1%

84.8%

95.0%

9.3%

38.4%

66.1%

95.6%

96.3%

90.3%

77.2%

52.9%

15.2%

5.0%

90.7%

61.6%

33.9%

4.4%

3.7%

VERY LIKELY

LIKELY

NEITHER LIKELY NOR UNLIKELY

UNLIKELY

VERY UNLIKELY

VERY LIKELY

LIKELY

NEITHER LIKELY NOR UNLIKELY

UNLIKELY

VERY UNLIKELY

IF IN

DEP

END

ENCE

: EU

MEM

BERS

HIP

IF IN

DEP

END

ENT:

KE

EP P

OU

ND

No Yes

Modelling vote choice after the referendum

-.186.481

-.258-1.014

.066-.585

.195-.559

-.579-.971

.087-.472

.000.036

-1.200 -1.000 -.800 -.600 -.400 -.200 .000 .200 .400 .600

Highest income quartileLowest income quartile

Other ReligionChurch of England

CatholicProtestant

Social renterOwner-occupier

oUKrUK

DegreeFemale

Age squareAge

2. Did the campaign matter?

How might we evaluate the impact of the campaign?

• Timing of decision to vote• Vote switching• High levels of knowledge and engagement• Citing campaign issues/events in reasons for voting Yes or No

Capacity for campaign influence: Boredom, then excitement

Timing of vote decision

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

I’ve known all along how I would

vote

Once thereferendum date

was announced (inMarch 2013)

A year or so ago A few months ago During the last fewweeks

I haven’t decided yet

No Yes

Vote switching

• Very few in dataset• 48 from Yes to No• 45 from No to Yes

Impact of the debates

64.4

29.1

5.11.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Didn't have any impact - my mind wasalready made up

Made me think but didn't change mymind

Got me seriously thinking abou theother side

Changed my mind completely

The Vow: More likely to expect further devolution?

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

week 1 week 2 week 3 week 4More powers likely more powers unlikely

Impact of campaign on vote choice (SRS week 1)

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

Better offRich gap smaller

Join EUKeep pound

Economy worseIF YES:

Rich gap widerMore powers

If NO:Scottish not British

Certainty consequencesSocial housing

FemalePresbyterian

Age

Impact of campaign on vote choice (SRS weeks 1 & 4)

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

Better offRich gap smaller

Join EUKeep pound

Economy worseIF YES:

Rich gap widerMore powers

If NO:Scottish not British

Certainty consequencesSocial housing

FemalePresbyterian

Age

Stated reasons for voting No (SRS w2 n=421)

29.527.8

26.3

5.3 5.23.4 2.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Because I feel Britishand believe in the

Union

Beause there were toomany unasnwered

questions

Because independencewould have madeScotland worse off

economically

I wanted to vote 'Yes'but in the end it

seemed a bit too risky

Because I don't trustAlex Salmond

Because Scotland isgoing to get the extrapowers I want anyway

Something else/don'tknow

Stated reasons for voting Yes (SRS w2, n=389)

24.8 24.1

21.820.1

2.91.7

4.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

So that Scotlandalways gets the

governments it votesfor

Because the wholeWestminster system is

rotten

Because independenceis the natural state ofnations like Scotland

Because it would havemade Scotland better

off economically

Because of the currentcoalition government

at Westminster

Because it would havehelped to protect

public services

Something else/don'tknow

Reasons for switching from No to Yes (SRS w2, n=40)• Anything to do with lack of trust in Westminster/Tories/UKIP 44%

• “I do not trust Westminster (and I’m English)”• “The last minute promises that came from Westminster didn’t sit well with

me and I feel it was unconstitutional to change the goalposts so late in the after a two year campaign”

• Negativity of no side 29%• “Scaremongering by No campaign”

• Change/make a difference/social democracy 15%• Once in a lifetime opportunity for me and my family”

• Other 6%

Reasons for switching from Yes to No (SRS w2, n=41)• Economic risk/uncertainty 48%

• “My pension, I wanted to be sure that I was safe”

• Other Risk/uncertainty 18%• “Decided was too great a risk. Heart said yes but head said No”

• Promise of more powers 10%• “The promise of devo max which is a transition to home rule”

• Alex Salmond/Aggressive nature of Yes campaign 10%• “The ‘Yes’ campaign was alarmingly dishonest and aggressive”

• Other 15%

Some voters hold different people responsible for the fact that the Yes side lost the election. What about you? Which of the following do you think is most responsible for the fact that the Yes side lost?

41.3

17

11.8 11.27.9

0.9

4.7 5.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

The Westminsterleaders for

misleading votersabout more powers

The press/BBC forbias towards No

The Scottishelectorate for losing

its nerve

The banks andother businesses

for warning aboutthe consequences

of a Yes

Better Together fora negativecampaign

Yes Scotland for apoor camapign

Other reason Don't know/none

3. What are the implications of the referendum vote for public life?

How might we evaluate the implications?

• Losers’ consent• Elevated levels of public engagement

• Political interest• Political participation

Losers’ consent (3 day rolling average)

Losers’ consent (II)

312 15

8

15

46

55

4727

27

16

2749

10 8 13

6 5 6 5

0%

50%

100%

Yes No Yes No

Satisfaction with UK democracy Satisfaction with Scottish democracy

Don't know

Very dissatisfied

Little dissatisfied

Fairly satisfied

Very satisfied

Losers’ consent vs winners’ consent

-1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50

Male (women)

Age (0-1)

Univ degree (non)

Income (0-1)

Left-Right (0-1)

Loser UK (winner)

Yes vote (no)

Lab-Cons-LibDem (SNP)

Happy result (0-1)

Pol efficacy (0-1)

Satisfaction with Democracy in Scotland

In red, statisticallly significant at 90%

Political interest (pre referendum)

6.57.1

5.6

8.4

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

UK politics Scottish politics International politics Referendum

Levels of political interest over the course of the campaign

6.36.9

8.1

6.57.0

8.2

6.67.3

8.6

6.57.3

8.8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

UK politics Scottish politics Referendum

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4

12.40%

50.60%

23.50%

13.40%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

I haven’t noticed it making any difference to anyone

I’ve noticed others getting more involved but it hasn’t made any difference to me

It’s got me a bit more involved

It’s got me a lot more involved

This question is about the effect of the referendum campaign on the Scottish public’s involvement and interest in politics. Which of these statements best

describes your own situation?

14.8%

60.6%

18.9%

5.8%9.8%

39.9%

28.6%21.8%

0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%

I haven’t noticed it making any difference

to anyone

I’ve noticed others getting more involved but it hasn’t made any

difference to me

It’s got me a bit more involved

It’s got me a lot more involved

This question is about the effect of the referendum campaign on the Scottish public’s involvement and interest in politics. Which of these

statements best describes your own situation?

No Yes

54.00%

40.80%

36.80%

49.00%

9.20%

10.10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Yourself

The Scottish public

What do you think will happen to levels of political involvement –both your own and in the Scottish public as a whole – once the

referendum is over?

Will stay more involved Will go back to normal Don’t know

31.9%

65.7%

16.7%

53.6%

57.6%

25.8%

71.5%

37.1%

10.5%

8.5%

11.8%

9.3%

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0%

No

Yes

No

Yes

Your

self

The

Scot

tish

publ

icWhat do you think will happen to levels of political involvement – both your

own and in the Scottish public as a whole – once the referendum is over?

Will stay more involved Will go back to normal Don’t know

Extra data

What do Scots want?

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Power over new policy areas More power over existing areas More influence over centraldecision making

SNP membership

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000