The Science of Global Climate Change: How Climate Change May Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems

THE SCIENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE:

How Climate Change May Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems

Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director of the University of Minnesota’s Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve

WHAT MAY HAPPEN TO MINNESOTA’S CLIMATE?

HOW MAY CHANGES IN CLIMATE AFFECT MINNESOTA’S

ECOSYSTEMS?

WELCOME TO LAKE SUPERIOR?

Wikipedia

IT’S ALL ABOUT

THE CLIMATE

…CLIMATE is the prevailing weather conditions of a region averaged over long periods of time.

Wikipedia

A BIOME is a large land area characterized by a prevailing CLIMATE that supports a major ecological community type.

…AND THE

BIOMES THAT

RESULT

NORTH AMERICA’S BIOMES

MINNESOTA’S BIOMES

MN DNR

Minnesota is unique in that it supports three major biomes, making it a grand ECOTONE… a transition zone between biomes.

WHERE GOES THE CLIMATE, SO GOES THE BIOMES…

TEMPERATURE

(Solar Radiation)

PRECIPITATION

(Amount & Timing)

SOIL MOISTURE

(Evapotranspiration)

Pearson Education

GLOBAL BIOMES

“SURVIVE &

THRIVE”

-14oF BOREAL FOREST 60oF

-20oF 0oF 30oF 41oF 60oF 80oF 41oF

10oF GRASSLAND 80oF

39oF DECIDUOUS 72oF

AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (U.S.) “SURVIVE & THRIVE” TOLERANCE RANGES

J.Corney

10in. 20in. 35in. 45in. 60in.26in.

25in. DECIDUOUS FOREST 60in.

15in. BOREAL FOREST 40in.

10in. GRASSLAND 35in.

AVERAGE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (U.S.) “SURVIVE & THRIVE” TOLERANCE RANGES

J.Corney

U.S. CLIMATE RANGES

U.S.

5oC (41oF)

66cm (26in.)

CONTINENTAL U.S. BIOMES

B

Eco tone

Sub

-Tro

pica

l

Tem

pera

te

SU.S.: -12-27oC (10-80oF)

U.S.: -26-16oC (-14-60oF)

U.S.: 2-22oC (35-72oF)

TEMPERATURE

5o C

(4

1o F)

Bor

eal

S

ub-A

rctic

N

J.Corney

Semi-Mesic Mesic

Eco tone

E Arid Semi-Arid

W

25-87cm (10-35in) 40-100cm (15-40in) 65-150cm (25-60in)

PRECIPITATION

66cm

(26i

n.)

J.C

orne

y

Wikipedia

SOIL MOISTURE

Evapotranspiration67%

Surface Runoff29%

Consumptive Use 2% Groundwater Outflow 2%

U.S. Estimated Water Budget

USGS

EW

SOIL MOISTURE N

S

Ecotone

J.Corney

NORTH AMERICA’S PRAIRIE-FOREST BORDER

?

Major Biomes

NOAA - NWS

U.S. CLIMATE & BIOMES PROFILE

TEMPERATURE: 41oF annual avg.

PRECIPITATION: 26 in. annual avg.

WHAT IS MINNESOTA’SCURRE

NT CLIMATE?(Averaged over the

past 100 years)

DO THESE AVERAGES

LOOK FAMILIAR?

U.S.

5oC (41oF)

66cm (26in.)

CONTINENTAL U.S. BIOMES

U.S. CLIMATE ISOLINE

S

36”

20”24”

28”

32”36”

40”16”

12”

8”

4”

<4”

28”

60”

40”

50”

8”

64oF

100” (1971-2000)

42oF

45oF

48oF

51oF

54oF

58oF

62oF

64oF 72oF

68oF

51oF

45oF

58oF

64oF

62oF

54oF

42oF

51oF 39oF 39oF

72oF

(1971-2000)

72oF 68oF

TE

MP

ER

AT

UR

E

44oF

37oF

41oF

NWS

TEMPERATURE ISOLINES

40in

PRECIPITATION26in23in 35in

NWS

PRECIPITATION ISOLINES

5oC (41oF)

66cm (26in.)

CURRENT MN

CLIMATE OF 2010

PRECIPITATION

TE

MP

ER

AT

UR

E

44oF

37oF

41oF

23in 35in26inNWS

ISOLINE CONVERGENCE POINT

MN SOIL MOISTURE BALANCE

USDA

- +

CONIFEROUS FOREST

DECIDUOUS FOREST

GRASSLAND

MINNESOTA BIOMES

MN DNR

HAVE THERE BEEN

CHANGES IN MN’S

CLIMATE?

IPCC

34in19in 26in 31in

36oF

40oF

43oF

41oF

Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches)

Ave

rag

e A

nn

ual

Tem

per

atu

re Is

ocl

ines

(oF

)

TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (1900-1930)

NWS adapted by C. Lehman

St. Cloud Area

22in

1930

38in23in 26in 35in

37oF

39oF

44oF

41oF

Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches)

Ave

rag

e A

nn

ual

Tem

per

atu

re Is

ocl

ines

(oF

)

TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (1930-2000)

NWS adapted by C. Lehman

2010Detroit Lakes Area

30in

CONIFEROUS FOREST

DECIDUOUS FOREST

GRASSLAND

MINNESOTA BIOMES

1930

2010

MN DNR

About a 100 mile

shift

WHAT MAY HAPPEN TO MINNESOTA’S FUTURE

CLIMATE?

TEMPERATURE

3.5 – 4.0oC(6.3 – 7.2oF)INCREASE

5oC (41oF) Current Avg.becomes

9oC (48oF) Predicted Avg.

PRECIPITATION

5 – 10%(1.3 – 2.6 in.)INCREASE

26 in. Current Avg.becomes

28 in. Predicted Avg.

2100

IPCC, 2007

USGCRP – Hayhoe, et al.

40in26in 37in

48oF

51oF

41oF

Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches)

Ave

rag

e A

nn

ual

Tem

per

atu

re Is

ocl

ines

(oF

)

TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (2010-2100)

2100

NWS adapted by C. Lehman

Oh, Canada!

28in 33in

44oF

9oC (48oF)

71cm (28in.)

PREDICTED MN

CLIMATE OF 2100

GRASSLAND

DECIDUOUS FOREST

MINNESOTA BIOMES2100

SA

VA

NN

A

About a 300 mile

shift

USGRCP - National Arbor Day Foundation

Plant Hardiness Zones

2100

USDA-Forest Service

Projected (2100)

SO, MAYBE NOT THIS…

PERHAPS SOMETHING LIKE THIS…

Luka Luka

SO, HOW WILL THE TREES MIGRATE?

MN DNR

SUCCESSION, DISTURBANCE & COMPETITION

Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director University of Minnesota Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve2660 Fawn Lake Dr NEEast Bethel, MN 55005(763) 434-5131

www.cedarcreek.umn.edujcorney@umn.edu