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The Role of Coal Generation in a World of Greenhouse Gas Regulation. NARUC Summer Meeting New York City. July 17, 2007 Jackson E. Reasor, President & CEO Old Dominion Electric Cooperative. Old Dominion Electric Cooperative Glen Allen, Virginia. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The Role of Coal Generationin aWorld of Greenhouse GasRegulation
NARUC Summer MeetingNew York City
July 17, 2007Jackson E. Reasor, President & CEOOld Dominion Electric Cooperative
Old Dominion Electric CooperativeGlen Allen, Virginia
Power provider for 12 distribution electric cooperatives in Virginia, Maryland and Delaware
Serves over 450,000 member-owned meters or about 1 million customers
Ownership interest in coal, nuclear and gas generating plants
Overview:
Coal must be a part of our energy mix
No simple solution for climate issues
Technology improvements are needed across the board
Electricity Demand Growing 40%
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
2004 2010 2025
Dem
and
(mill
ion
mW
h)
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007
Capacity Margins Lowest Since 2001
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: EIA Electric Power Annual 2005
Capacity Margins Forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Source: NERC ES&D 2006 Reserve Margin Forecast
PJM as Part of the Eastern Interconnection
KEY STATISTICS - TODAYPJM member companies 400+millions of people served 51peak load in megawatts 144,796MWs of generating capacity 164,634GWh of annual energy 728,000generation sources 1,271area served 13 states + DCInternal/external tie lines 247+
Transmission Expansion Drivers
KEY STATISTICS - 2020
PJM member companies
400+millions of people served
55peak load in megawatts
190,000MWs of generating capacity
220,000GWh of annual energy
900,000generation sources
1,300+area served
13 states + DCInternal/external tie lines
247+
Old Dominion Projected Loads and Capacity Resources
0500
10001500200025003000350040004500
MW
Baseload
Projected Loads
2008
2013
2018
Peaking
Capacity Purchases
Total US Electricity Generation: 2005 EIA
Non-hydro Renewable
1.6%Hydropower
6.7%
Nuclear20.1%
Natural Gas17.4%
Other Fossil3.0%
Coal w/o CCS51.2%
3826 million mWh
Source: EPRI
Total Electricity Generation: 2030 EIA Base
Natural Gas14%
Nuclear16%
Hydropower6%
Non-Hydro Renewable
3%
Other Fossil2%
Coal w/o CCS59%
5406 million mWh
Source: EPRI
Total US Electricity Generation: 2030 EPRI
Coal w/o CCS38%
Nuclear25%
Hydropower5%
Coal with CCS15%
Other Fossil1%
Natural Gas9%
Non-Hydro Renewable
7%
5401 million mWh
Source: EPRI
Comparing Future Scenarios
Natural Gas14%
Nuclear16%
Hydropower6%
Non-Hydro Renewable
3%
Other Fossil2%
Coal w/o CCS59%
Coal w/o CCS38%
Nuclear25%
Hydropower5%
Coal with CCS15%
Other Fossil1%
Natural Gas9%
Non-Hydro Renewable
7%
EIA Reference Case EPRI Technology Case
Review:
Coal must be a part of our energy mix
No simple solution for climate issues
Technology improvements are needed across the board
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