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The Potential for Cost Reduction
Hugo de Moor
Results from the EU-Photex project 2002-2003
Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November 2003
Price ProjectionsConstant learning rate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
€/WpA LR = 0.3 GR = 20%
B LR = 0.2 GR = 20%
C LR = 0.1 GR = 20%
D LR = 0.2 GR = 10%
E Epia scenario
Price of PV Systems
The Future of the past
JPL Silicon Module Cost Studies 1978-1985(Source: JPL, 1986)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Status 1978 (1978)
Target 1986 (1978)
SoA projection Cz 1988 (1985)
Projection Dendr. web 1992
(1985)
Mod
ule
Cos
t (Eu
r-20
00/W
p)
moduleencaps. mat.cellwafersilicon
22.9
1.52.21.6
Projections were too optimistic
Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November 2003
Price distribution of residential PV systems BRD
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1 kWp 5 kWp 2 kWp, 2002
Euro
/kW
p
modules
inverter
mounting structure,installation material
installation labour
planning,documentation
Total
Module cost dominant
Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November 2003
What is the potential formodule cost reduction?
There is room for cost reduction- lower materials cost
• absorber (amount, purity)• encapsulant
- higher efficiency- taking advantage of economy-of-scale
It is difficult to determine the annual cost reduction
on the basis of R&D potential
Cost Break Down PV modules
Materials ≈ 50%
Cell EfficiencyYield
Labour
Cost Break Down x-Si (90% of market)
Silicon wafer
Cell Efficiency
Module materials
Labour
(Note: Direct manufacturing cost do not include overhead such as R&D, Sales, Maintenance and Staff Departments)
Analysis of cost reduction x-Si
Wafer costFeedstock 30% Scrap from IC Indusry
20 - 30 €/kg FluctuatingIndependent supply needed=> 15 - 20 €/kg Si (mg Si 2 $/kg)
Silicon content 2000 17 g/Wp2010 10 g/Wp
sheets (EFG, RGS), wafer thicknessCrystallisation cast, sheetsWafering
Analysis of cost reduction x-Si
Cell ProcessingLabour, Equipment
Efficiency, (yield, uptime)
Plant size
Efficiency 12-14% → 15-18%2000 2010
Plant Size 1990 1 - 5 MWp 50 MWpa2000 10 - 25 MWp 300 MWpa2010 25 - 100 MWp 2 GWpa
Effect of Plant Size on Price
0
1
2
3
4
5
2,5 25 250
MWp/Year
ECU'96/Wp
MarginModule ManufacturingCell ManufacturingSlicingGrowing
Source, Alonso et al., 1995(Music-FM study)
Analysis of cost reduction x-Si
Analysis of cost reduction x-Si
Module AssemblyMaterials, Labour
YieldCapital12%
Labour7%
Overhead10%
Tabs6%
Glass10%
EVA20%
Tedlar17%
Frame18%
Maycock 2000
Scale-upLaminatesNew encapsulantsBack contact cells
Analysis of sources of cost reduction
Price ForecastsMaycock 20012000 3-4 $/Wp2005 3.3 $/Wp2010 2.3 $/Wp
Epia2000 3.5 € /Wp2005 2.7 € /Wp2010 2.1 € /Wp
Price development in Japan
Ogawa (NEDO) 12th PVSEC
Modules ($/Wp)2000 4.62005 1.72010 1.2
120 ¥ = 1$
Cost Break Down a-Si
Cell Efficiency
Materials
Module materials
Labour
Yield
Analysis of cost reduction a-Si
DevelopmentsEfficiency >> 5 - 8% → 8 - 14%
2000 2010
Higher throughput CVD
Low-cost TCO
Double glass → Single glass → plastic foils
Process control (uniformity, yield)
Analysis of sources of cost reduction
Price ForecastsMaycock 20012000 2-3 $/Wp ?2005 2 $/Wp2010 1.2 $/Wp
Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November 2003
Cost potential of inverters
• Inverter is only 10-15% of system costImportant for system performance and reliability
New concepts
Less components
Economy-of-scale
Standardisation
Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November 2003
Cost potential of inverters
System performance and reliability
• Mismatch loss parallel (AC-module, PV Wirefree, Bus)
• Ease of installation• Duplication
Range of inverters 200 - 500 - 2000 W - 5000 W needed
- Do it yourself vs profesional installers
Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November 2003
Inverter development
Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November 2003
Some conclusions on cost potential• Module prices make up 70%-80% of systems
Focus for cost reduction effortsBOS: reliable, energy output
• Material costs most important part of module costsSolar Si feedstock productionLess materialLess pure material
• Higher efficiency• Economy-of-Scale
R&D and sustainable market
Hugo de Moor Photex FinalMeeting Brussels 25 November 2003
What will be our products ?
• Coming 20 years improving current technologyx-Si and thin-films (Film-Si, CIS)
• After 2020 new concepts are needed
• BIPV• Small power plants (grid quality)• SHS’s• Long term bulk-power > 2030
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