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7/28/2019 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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The New Eastern Europe:Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
Editors
Daniel HamiltonandGerhard Mangott
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Hm, D Mg, G (.), The New Eastern Europe:Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova (Wg, DC: C TcR, )
C Tc R/A I IA,
Center for Transatlantic RelationsAmerican Consortium on EU Studies
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I ST J H Uy Mc A., NW, S
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Austrian Institute for International AffairsOg B
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Austrian Marshall Plan FoundationUgg
A- VT: +// Fx: +// Em: c@m.://.m.
ISBN : ----ISBN : ---X
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Table of Contents
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Daniel Hamilton and Gerhard Mangott
The Lands In Between: The New Eastern Europein the Twenty-First Century . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Angela E. Stent
Shifting Ground
Prospects for the Political and EconomicDevelopment of Ukraine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Taras Kuzio
Neighborhood in Flux: EU-Belarus-RussiaProspects for the European Unions Belarus Policy. . . . . . . . Rainer Lindner
Moldovas Uncertain Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . International Crisis Group
Economic and Energy Perspectives
Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova:Economic Developments and Integration Prospects . . . . . . Vasily Astrov and Peter Havlik
Ukraine and Belarus: Their Energy Dependenceon Russia and their Roles as Transit Countries . . . . . . . . . . Roland Gtz
Ukraine and Its Neighbors
Ukraines Role in Changing Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Elena Kovalova
Russia and Ukraine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Dmitri Trenin
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Ukraine and the European Union. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Michael Emerson
Ukraine and NATO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F. Stephen Larrabee
The New Eastern Europe?
Deconstructing a Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gerhard Mangott
About the Contributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
iv The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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Preface
Daniel Hamilton and Gerhard Mangott
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The Lands In Between:
The New Eastern Europe in theTwenty-First Century
Angela E. Stent
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2 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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4 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
Sy, . . A L, Ukraine and Russia: A Fraternal Rivalry (Wg, DC: U S
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The Lands In Between: The New Eastern Europe in the Twenty-First Century
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6 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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Prelude to the Present: Independence and Beyond
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8 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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The Lands In Between: The New Eastern Europe in the Twenty-First Century
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12 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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14 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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16 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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18 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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g, c y m E by. Tg m -b b mmb E my m cg b .
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Shifting Ground
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Prospects for the Political and
Economic Development of Ukraine
Taras Kuzio
T c c. T g
y U , ccy m-c c, c cmm q-. T c c g U cm c- -cmm OgR cm mcc . T c c c m -Og U.D c, ccy xm y Og m. B c U c c cmm, U
m c gm c xc cyc .
Ukraine and Transition Theory
Path Dependence
P c x y U CIS m c c mcc - g cy c . U q-, gy .Rgm gg fc mc c g -cy. A c c m m -m Cmm Py U g fc -c c cy mg. Ocmg y cS c c m c ccm
mg Cmm gcy c- E. T cm-
H V. Z, Pc C N-Pmm L Kcm, Problemso Post-Communism,. , . (Smb/Ocb ), . -.
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gm c mg U gL Kcm c m c c my b
S c c, c c (temnyky), - ( b cmm c ) g b c c y.
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m ccy c .
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Mc my c.
26 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
Lc A. Wy, T Sc Dymc Cm Am U,Journal o Communist Studies and Transition Politics, ., . (Mc ), .- T Kz, Rgm Ty Pc U Kcm, Communist andPost-Communist Studies, . , . (J ), .-.
S T Kz, Ogc, T Og: Kcmg Og R,Journal o Communist Studies and Transition Politics, ., . (Mc ), .-.
Lc A. Wy, Rc m cm m U,-, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, . , . (J ), . -; R Pg, T R U Ogc, Democratization, . ,. (Am ), . -.
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cy y c ym. A M Sy , mcc b-g m y m m- ym.W m m c-y, gcy, ycgcy cy. Dg m c cg, g ybg cmmy, cy b ym. Fm g cy by gg
gy mgg ym. E U Dcmb L Kc, m gccy Cmm Py U my , U . Kc , y cc c g c . F g U -, Kc cy c c b mm . U -S b
cy c, g gm by -g mgz . U c cm, cm ( g c) m ( g m m m b).
I , Cmm Py (g[] Cmm)
Prospects or the Political and Economic Development o Ukraine
E M Jc Sy, Dmccy W,Foreign Aairs, . , . (My-J ), . .
Am Pz, Sm Pbm Sy T Dmccy, Gm OD, P C. Scm Lc W ., Transitions
rom Authoritarian Rule. Prospects or Democracy (Bm: J H Uy P,), . .
Ay D. Sm, T N: I, Img, Rc?Millennium. Journalo International Studies, . , . (W ), . .
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D Gb, Mg K P L, ., Democratisation (M Ky,T O Uy, ), .-. Mc cb m bm, . H c cm m-, xc cm cm. S G L. Mc,Dmcc T Cm Pc, Comparative Politics, . , . (A ), . -.
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mcc cm g - m USSR U, c mgzg c m
Cmm xm .
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28 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
B Ny, The Ukrainian Resurgence (L: H, ), . .T Sc Dmcc U Py (SDPU) by V Mc,
m -, bg c c g Og R. T cg Mc, cc gm gg m Kcm c m, SDPU m ( cc c ).
Yyc by by Kcm m cc mmy, c Yyc.
O m cc (y) U T.Kz,Gg Dy Pc,Kyiv Post, Ocb , ; Yc: Ccg O, Transitions On Line, Ag , H Yc,
Kyiv Post, J , .
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. U Kcm A U! m gz by c Tym bc
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c . T O U, g gm - c, cmm cg Tym bc g. Ic c cmm c m b mm mmy c Kcm.
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Tym x O U y: T bg b - b c ; , mc -m. O c y b c b.
Pc b c mc U bc by c c-cg c b . N mc m
gy c g -c U
Prospects or the Political and Economic Development o Ukraine
S T. Kz, Gg Dy Pc,Kyiv Post, Ocb , Yc:Ccg O, Transitions On Line, Ag , .
I Tym Ukrayinska Pravda, Ocb .
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c c - U. Pcg - m c m L Amc,
S Pg c m gm.A c , cg by c m mc
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, Hz , cmm my, b ccy cc cm y mg m.
Mbz by c cy m b mcc g U Og R, g b cc c g mcc gm cy. TOg R xcy c cy ,
A g, by m g b. TOg R by c cy b Yc - c cy my by cg b gm -b c by EU. I bc m mbz , Kcm gz b b , c by Yc O U, . R-b y c Dcmb
Jy Ag , g m mbz byOg c g m mbzby B cm Og by A-Cc gm. O b cc c
30 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
Nc J. Ly, Ggy T: Rccg Symc Cg Fm S U, Slavic Review, . , . (W ), . -.
D L. Hz, Dmccy D Sc,Journal o Democracy, . , . (Ocb ), ..
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., . (Smb ), .-.
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gg b, Kcm Yc . T , by Tym, c Kcm
mcm j -b g-, y b g . T Tym bc g Dcmb , cmmcg, c O U bc, g Ag U N Uy, P Yc - O U.
C cy mbz b y m g , my,
g b Cm-m Py Kcm gm. P m b, Hg- , m mcc m cg cc m. W mm m b , McF -cmm b , m b
m cmm LAmc S E. I U, m b c m completely , , b by g ancien regimes m b g c-m. B b cm, U y bg. T U PMm (R), Vyc C, b c ,g Kc . I Yc cc bg c c g m Sm C g g C EcCmm c, cg Yyc y c.
T c c c g cmm c c g g z ccy m c by xg g c
Prospects or the Political and Economic Development o Ukraine
Sm Hg, The Third Wave. Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (N-m L: Uy Om P, ), . -. M yc y y .
Mc McF, T F W Dmcz Dc. Nc- T Pcmm , World Politics, . , . (Jy ),. -.
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c m . T m gmb mmy Kcm
c m c m .Fm Pc S P c Dcmb, g m Og m-, y m g cmm cg c m cg c . Ag -m m Pc c, P- Yc y c m Ocb , m g mmm Yyc c c g-m g mmy c g c-
. Immy Kcm by y m g Og R Yc c -. B, c cm-m - cm m Kcm Yc mmy Yc c.Yc c cm mmy Og mmy c y m m . T -m c
g b m mgOg , O U cmg Tym bc c c c. T y Yc cy c.
I Sb U, Dmcc O Sb(DOS) Og c m m, gmg mcc ancien regime, cy mc cm, c c-m gc. Fm g m- ( xg m m m b) gcm, -m c b mgz m c c. U cm yc cm c m cg, c cm c g-.
32 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
W, .. Cm c y cc by I F Ec-
Sym Fby Nmb : ://..g/bc-.m?= ://..g/bc-.m?=.
Hg, . .
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I Sb, DOS Sb Mc I W
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g mmy g -b g OgR. Pcg U - m S U - U m Kcm Yc. N, bcm c m c U bg b ; cy y U.S. cmy cg U c, m Pm M- P Lz.
Ukraines Quadruple Transition
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Prospects or the Political and Economic Development o Ukraine
Sy K, Ry Bg: T Umg U Accy TgPcg, J Cmm S T Pc, . , . (Mc
), . -.T.Kz, Oy U.S. cc,Kyiv Post, Smb , .J J. Lz A S, Problems o Democratic Transition and Consolidation. SouthernEurope, South America and Post Communist Europe (Bm: J H Uy,).
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ccy. Sm c m S gm, bmyb b bc m mc-
cy. O c b by bg c m cmy.U bg b m S q- g m c . Dmcc g c m.
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bcm U mcc cmc . T c c b m byKz q , b y m c b m c- E, E LAmc.T c q y cmm g bg m-cc m cmy. Dg Kcm m, xm,
mc x m mc U cy mg c. T Cmm Py U g c m, y m c m . T Cmm Py U g S c S Cmm Py c b b Ag . Ty y -m bg y xc . F y - -cmm c g cy g b . Dg , mc- -S y ( c) g c x , b, U . T c xR g cgz U
34 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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b. Ag, mbg bc y; , R by cc U .
T c y g. A DA c-cgy , gm c b g c-qc. Ng c gm b xy -c cy U g gm g m.Rgm c U cmm Umc g c. N U g c U , ,
g U g c, g , g -b Og R gg U N Uy. U g m c g c .
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c b U c
Prospects or the Political and Economic Development o Ukraine
P DA, Ec T S Sg: Ug S U S,Journal o Communist Studies and Transition Politics, . , . (Mc), . -. S L Bg, Exmg mgcc c : g, c gc U,European Journal o Political Research, . , . (J ), . -; L. Bg, L Ec H, O U My?: Rgm U I Pc Cqc,Nationalities Papers, . , . (Mc ), . -.
S R Ab, Mm N S: I Hy NIy P-S E,Nationalities Papers, . , . (Smb ), .-; S D. R F Fc, Hc Lgc T Imc P-Cmm Vg B,Europe-Asia Studies, . , . (Jy ), .-.
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Og R Ky cy ggcg c U. T c
b y c cy, g by Rybc Kz, mcy b by Og R.
Ukraine in Comparative Perspective
The CIS and Central-Eastern Europe
T -cmm c
fc g y c c -. Hc c , c cm,c c cg c y, Bccc. Ecmc c m m y c -Cmm c cm , y x-cmm cc mg c .
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x, gc c cg m . U c by Bc g R, Bg, Rm, S C y c c cy -Cmm .
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36 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
Politychnyi Portret, . , , b ..g.. S Dmq A,T Og R: Ay Imc P Ec U. T A S-Cmbg Lc Cmy U, Cm-bg, Fby , . Ab ://..c/cmc/g-///A_Cmbg..
My Rybc, C Scy N Iy U, T. Kz ., Con-temporary Ukraine: Dynamics o Post-Soviet Transormation (Am, N.Y.: M.E. S,), . -; T. Kz, N Iy Dmcc T P-
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o Democracy, . , . (A ), . -. Hg, . -. L. A. Wy, Kcm F Am,Journal o Democracy, . , . (A
), . - T. Kz, U R: U R YCm, SAIS Review, . XXVI, . (Smm-F ), . -. Ax J.My m c y R, cm g m b m, U. S ScC Sg P: T Lgc Symc Cg U R,Comparative Politics, . , . (Jy ), . -.
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38 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
A. A, P G Ay W M, The Weekly Standard, Ocb , , T - R, The Economist, Ocb , . S Lc A. Wy, A S-Bg Sc Pc Lbz-
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40 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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U , Og R gy xc c. Dg xc cb
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Prospects or the Political and Economic Development o Ukraine
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b c y c bg c g Py Rg. T Sc b y cg c U b x c by Tym bc. T Sc y c.
T Tym bc mc by y c, c c mg Tymbc Tym. T Tym bc xc -
c -gm .Tym y, Yc, g Og R. T cg c Tym bc.F, by g gm A-C c, c U Tymbc , c bgm bg c m. Sc gm m by c b c
b cc . I c cg by - y gm c. U b -gc bc jgm. I cg by Tym c bg , c q cg U , m m cm g m. I , c Yyc D c U g m bcgYc.
T Py Rg gy c F U U bc, y -Kcmc c c. O , Py Rg y g mb c. T Py I E (PPPU) c
bc Yc c c c c mmb O U bc. I -c O U g b g,c c Py Rg
46 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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Tym bc. PPPU O U c A-C c Mc Ay K
M Ecmc.Sc Og R, cy g
A-C c, Py Rg y m -gc -Kcmy mcc m. U gc,R Am, bcy cg c SymC Mgm gmcy by m bc g m Py . T
Py Rg cmc m c b c mcz, zg , bg c- E-Ac g c, ccy c.T Py Rg m y m -gc, mcc y yg c ( g c m O U cg c m m ). A y A-C c gm, Py
Rg c cg. E c OgR Py Rg -mg g mcc m g b Potemkin c mg b c U.
O U bgg m mg c g Og R b c Yc Kcm c-, cqc gc m y cc
c cmg. O U b c mcc by Yc m -b m c c ; R y b c . By c my c - O U c bc, g m O U bcmg m by b g, by mc . T b g, c PPPU Sy, m cmm Py
Rg Tym bc. O U m c c c by g cm
Prospects or the Political and Economic Development o Ukraine
S T. Kz, Ic Om D NATO U, UkrainianObserver, Ocb .
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c-g c cm y y m -cmm mg m E-Ac
g. T c cm c-g, c m c , gy c U -OgR .
T Tym bc mg F N S-, c mb g c g -gm . Tym c g Og R. T y c c Tym bc F Py by Tym, c c-
cm Sc . T F Py c g mb g bc U -c .
T, U m c m c , c c c:Cmm, Sc O U. T g c, Py Rg Tym bc, g c c , c m cm
m b. U x c cyc, Uc b m g gm: xb c c m m, c bg Og R g m. T Tym bc y c bg c m. O U Sc-Cmm b j A-C c cy.
T m c g. T mc c PYc, c c -gg Og cm.Ag O U cy j Ocb, y g Tym bc m . T PPPU b g O Um cmb c Tym bc.U , , c by
Tym bc cc (y) by OU. T c c Py Rg c -m g c m A-C c gm. T g EU m U
48 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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c mmb, c m U m m gg c- E. U c b g
mg Rm m , b Rm y g U; my, c EUmmb cg y by .T EU c mmb c cg -EU b g Py Rg, g-m, c m c, j EU ccycg I Ic Py Sc Dmccy Rm-.
T c c Py Rg gm Yc - mm. H c mYyc m c x c c m c y c, Tym bc m, Yc m Ag .
I Yc m A-C c m c , b cm. F,
b y c U cgy m -my bc. I Jy , Cb M c A-C c m U c my ym. T c y bg -. I Fby , Cmm c c- mm m U g M c cg c
by m. T Py Rg mybc y Tym cy c; , m y b Kcm c m - Yccy c. Dc bm m OU Tym bc, c PPPU, c g A-C c c mjy.
Prospects or the Political and Economic Development o Ukraine
S Ly L. A. Wy, I Lg Dmcz,Journal oDemocracy, ., . ( Jy ), . - L. W, I Ac Dmcz, Gm OD, P C. Scm Lc W- ., Transitions rom Authoritarian Rule. Prospects or Democracy (Bm: J H- Uy P, ), . -.
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Sc, m mcc, cmc gm Og R my b . U
mcc jcy, b m, cy Ujg m gg c- E, c Rm-, cc R mjy CIS.M mcz c y b -c mmb WTO NATO, gz mmb c - m, b b c m EU c cy.
Looking Ahead to 2009 2011
U cc bg m -S m- m b my b b g Og R, c y -. A m y x U bcm Cmm Py g. Ob cc y g c m
. N c xc- b c m m by -m c c cy. M my, gm bg g c c-m m m, m. T c b cc by m : ( S -S jc), mc c
(g cmm c). R Fb-y c g cm-m by z bg m-cc m, Og c Kcm . I mb c c g cmmb gm b b cy c .
T c Yc cy mcc c b c b ancien regime. Yyc Py
50 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
T Cmm Py U g m Ag Ocb .
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Rg b c cy,g c c g b
U. T b c U y m, m x c cyc.
T y q c U. T Py Rg m -gc, mcc y. Tm Py Rg U mc-z b y y Py Rg cm cg j c- . I m A-C c m c
Py Rg c b c, gccy mb mcc cg. A cc -m Py Rg y c -m b, y c Py Rg g m g y c gm.
T c mcc g Og R- b g Yyc gm. T Py Rg, cg g -
my c gm, b b U Kcm c m. Ugm mc y cc gm, by mg U R. A c cy c m Py Rg mz y Og R.
I U y m my bc, Ocb c b g by c-: Yyc, Tym cmb Yc. C c c bg g by Tym Yyc, U m c. I -y, U my c c bOg B c Yyc g cg c-cy m g m m. Yyc Tym b c by m
b - -c U cy. Imy y, Tym m c g cmb bg , c cg m bc, bg m c -
Prospects or the Political and Economic Development o Ukraine
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c. O c y Yc c m.
U m Tym c-m g m. A m m, Tym bc b c c c U c.T Py Rg b b c U.
B y bc mg , Yc y c m. Yc -mc y m
c gg c c , c-c, c Yyc c.Yc c cc mg by -, m c gy. Yc ygy cmm c , g , Yyc Tym.
Conclusion
Pc m m cy x c cyc g c gm m Og R y b y b c b m . U c gm cg m cc ym. W m gm c g mz ,U cy mg c b y c g g c c-m. U b, c b, b cm-m.
M g c-y mm. T, , U
m R CIS ; , m my c bg cm U c-E, CIS. U cc jcy m gy E bc
52 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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g c c Og, -mc. U c g cfc c c-
c b z-m gm, g m my , b cg c mcc b. T m mcc mc Ucmy, c g y cc. Dg U - c c, cmy g m c c yz. Sm mm z b m m cg m -c U, -cmm
c- E. U y bm m by Og R c.
Prospects or the Political and Economic Development o Ukraine
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Neighborhood in Flux:
EU-Belarus-RussiaProspects for theEuropean Unions Belarus Policy
Rainer Lindner
The Lukashenko System:The Agony of a Post-Soviet Regime
B c m m y b, m -bg y m Cby c c y
. T y -S B -m Ax L ccy mg y m B , cg y m c, cy cy, B b cgg mcy.
T gm E U NATO, m-gc y g E, R VmP y bc g gy xcy -g cg bg g -S c, fc mc B. T cyc c , by cc c Ecc U Gg g c cg B c ym. T gm b jyb g mcc , b L m g: W y y c mcc
cg c c b W. A c . T by mccy. T B g cy, xcm A , ,
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g mg B N Amby.
O c, , c c c c g c - c Mc . T m B c-y y ymbcy Ocb Sq (Pc) M Mc A . I bcm ymb c mcc cy -S y Fby , , , g nomenklatura. D
c c c, mm cm Og R U. B , m- c U, () Kc Ky, c cy g cm x-c m Y Tym by Kcm gm y. O c ,NGO y c B. A U, mm mm z cm B mg m
c .T c g -y -
m c E g, B gm b. I c gg cg bymc mcc c . R gbg cy g m by my -Sc . T my cm qg Og R. N, g c g
R y c g cg R. L mcy c ym c gy : cg m c c m cmmc. T cmy b c gy c. T y g.F f m, c, c c cggm by. T c c B , cb cg E B
cy.
56 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
Colour Revolutions Banditry under veneer o democracy,y Ax L, :B Tg Agcy, A , [://m.by-ym.cm/m/y/W--M-/.m].
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W gm yg x , B g. W g
gm c m m (gm cy, my, c c), y c-g . T z by ; c ym c. Fg c mb , gm c c b c m; gm mm m jc g, y m bjc -c by . T xm c gm ccg yy .
B q xm -S gm - y c b. I c y y-m mcc cm. T g by S Scy ScyCc B V Sm; C P Am- Gy Nyg; M Ec R; M Im Rc; M Jc G, G P-
c Mc, KGB c S Sc. Ty -y b g m c g. Ty b-z gm, b bz B . I ymmc L y mbz, g m mb y c c C Vz. L m b y c gm f my B. T mg c .
S- g j mb b m B . I m c - gbg c, cg gg mc -, g - TV (BT- ) g g gc c g y c B gm. T m gg m by c B KGB qy . T B, gm m cg -
by. B c c . N -g c c c -m g my c . B jc ym, c y y U g
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Og R. Ly m by c c. T c-
y bcm m c m Pc Gbcm G Pc S Scy ScyCc B.
B, g C A gm c Tm, -S gm, cg m- c B gy m cg cy m c . Iy - , xm, c
bc bx c g , , cg.S-y gz g c, bcmccm g .
T L gm c -c c, NGO, c,c, j, b c my c gg cy gm . O Nmb , , c, gm c O m
c c b my c, cc gm bg c cym g c m bg c m c. O c gm m my , bmy c . U c, my - mcc - c b cg bg m. T -
c c L gm B cz g bgg c -S gm.
E b R-B gy c b - c c gy c b q L m Bm. I c y R bz B g c.M b $. b y g c gy -
-x c . T m m
58 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
O m c c b my c-: ://..g.by//.m#c.
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R bg. N, , B g cmc c.
F, R g c c B bg. B c c c gy c, c c cy g gy- by.
Sc, B cg cb c g m g -x EU c. T bg c $ b g c - m cmc c. A Bcm, - b g, , jb cy g Dzb .
T, b xcb by Rcm Fby , m b $b m B g. T y-m g R-B cm cm . Sg, m y c, , -
b m cg B m xc-y R m c cgy y- x m. F xm, c bgg B g c g b R bcB y y. E g m B x g c C I S, b EU, B c by c R Sc Ecmc M
Dcmb , , c m cg cm gm cmc c b m gz.
I cm c cm g, gmby b .
T c R bgc cy B . U R gg g c , c g cy g.T mc m M bcm , x c-mc g gm c bcm c-gy cb. L ym b b cmcy cy. I jb - b y gy c c g
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g R m c cm, bg z, B qcy
L g x b gm g g R W, . I gg c m B cmc ym . Ub gy-- cy g, b cg m mm-z b b b m fxby, mc g . A c cmc cg.
E cmm Jy , , cB y R x $ c,L c g c R c ,cy g m c q cy b c. I M cy ccy m m c cm R my b B (c R my c-y ) y m
gm j my c c cmy y U S R B. S cm R g gg -L .
Mc g c B g - g ccb -R- c W b b cc. Fm,B cm mg R y c
Km g m y b y gy B. L y c gg c cg cy c gy c gm.M b m ccy c c c. T gm c mg c .
Democratic Forces: Readjustment and Old Problems
F m c g c gm b bg mjy B . I
60 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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m Cg Dmcc Fc mb g c Ax Mc c-
c Mc . T m B mcc b - cg P L. Fg c-, c Ax Kz, m c B S Uy (BGU) M nomenklatura cc g AxMc. O , c Nj Sc, b c m m g c cmg. Sc, g Ay Lb,
c cmg NCmm N Dmcc Fc, Cby y A , , c c .
T y gg g mb B c bcy c g c m mcc m c . F m, c cm-g mcc c cc. Mc
g cc c b c-. E c KGB mgc -m cc bm, c . T -m c B b Mc Kz m xcy g m b c-g gm by. F m c yq gy .
Ax Kz c ccm L mm, g -L y Mc c. Kz c y g cy mm. H m m xm gg mgm gm bz, bcm g gm. Ty c x-Cm N B SBgc, x-M Lb Ax S, x-Dy
Cm C C V F, x-Jg C C M P, mmb NAcmy Scc Ax Vjc, m Amb L M Mc.
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T c gm m y c y c, , b c
Nasha Niva NGO c B H Cmm,c . Sc b g gm m m gy g x ym x-xm EU g.I Dcmb b m M Ecmc C Cmm m z c qm.
T gm gg , y m g bgg gy .
L ymbc c m cm, Ox -m, b R, by, bb b, bc y b gmby g c g. T yb gy, b y bgg R--B U by gb. I, mcc , m C-g Dmcc Fc, y cm -
A Mc g .W Mc L Fby , mcc c cm jc ggg gm g y m c cm-mc. Mc g g cc B. T c bm c c c .
From Virtual to Mortal:The End of the Russian-Belarusian Union State
R cy M fx. W P cm , b R c m B Y. T b L, c cmc c Y R g L c c byB. A c, P cg R -
-S g cg R . My
62 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
Open Letter o Aleksandr Milinkevich to Aleksandr Lukashenko, Fby , , : ://.mccc.cm/c/Ac.?cID=.
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b mmb y R m New Energy Doctrine gy -S
c. A m, Gzm c g B b m m c. Sm cm m gg M, L, U. T bgg R-B U .
T b Mc M ccz by c g R B , mmg c . Sgcy, c b
cmc. T bg , B m .c g m R, B x by .c, my m bg c by EU c.Amb c g ccy b cy ccb B cmc b mygc . U , B c gc m -x c R c ( c c by CIS, my E
U) xc m y, gg $ b y . B R g - bcmg cc B L Wirtschatswunder: P c mjb B cmy My , y R-B U. T cy gbg c m S U c-y c c m b R. A c U Gg, A mc Uzb, P y m c g. H c m- cg R g my c- R . P bz R c cmc g c B,Kz, U Cmm Ecmc Sc C A c. Tmj ccy cy gy.
R mb mb B. R gy c P b. Ay Sgy Kg g R
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L. Kg g R -g M b ,
R b c y g g, cgg B L c yg, Mc. A m m, B bg R bc B , bbc R P c . F P -, B y, cy, gc c c m P g cg c: R-B c y c P Vm P.
Igy g, m c bcm L m, g by c: , c c B m m; c-, b b y y . FP, m c m c.P -R B, b cy L, bc g L y -
m P gmcy y W y.I R m g -
g L by y m. R -- gb, c b b gy c my, xcg gmc c b y . By g , R not W gzg B. B E U g R U S g-
c c c B b R c /.
T cmc Ty Fm U S R B g Dcmb , , b y by gy . A L jc cmm my c ym(c b m c c), R c-
m . T gy cfc Mc c m g by gc c b by m, cy gbg g .
64 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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Russias New Energy Doctrine in Belarus
I g b R B c
. T c g c $, byR Gzm bgg , c , P L c.L P P c. Fm R c, -S c Yc,S L cg y c-y R . T y P m -g b m. A , U y $
m
Gg y $. T y bYc L cgy mg R -S c. I B c mc Vz, Cb, Sy, I, Ac, C.
W bgy Ax L , b ccz y c bcm m -S . Dg m gy, B m b y gy c -Og
U. Dg CIS mm Dcmb M, U, Azbj B c c gy c c c jgy jc b m B U B EU c.
D x -fg mg P , L ccz R Rm, ccg m g U S. TB c R b B b g B c. A bgg , B g cy gy - by My Fg A gc . L g cy c cc m Cbb b, Vz, Ac, P G, I, N K, My, Vm. W g Vz, m,
y b R.
T g gy b R B ymb -S S U. T c
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cmc b , Sc, bcm c g S . T c
gm , g by Y L, c gy. Fm Jy , , , ymb -g -m gb c x. B ybcmg . R g gy-b y. N y CIS g cy, b R-B U S g .
Accg y M-b I Pz Mgm (IPM) m Nmb , y c
B g B oblasti R F. Oy c R-B U S g ccy, , -m. T Mc ym y-b bg -S y cg B, U, Kz, , b R g c c gb. T mgc R gy b g S m.
B gg b g g Km ggy c. R g mc c c cmc m Gzm, c cgm m m m R cg m c m m normal. T mz b Mc M mm L, bc m-z y c by R
B. T L ym bg.
By g g c B, byg mj B g , mg x R B, cg y- m Bg R, R b . A , c R B cm b b. Rcmc cy gb c
g cy P cm c c-g cgy . T L ym, cmc c by b c m R, b g x c. F
66 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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EU Gmy gy gy gc R c
c gy g B.T cfc R g B -
y Dcmb , . T m, Jy , Km g -c g c. Ag g cmm c $ cbc m -S g, g y b b - B- cmy. Accg B Pm M Sg Sy,
g c m c b q cyb. T c m R Gzm c . Gzm g y $. b B - BTG, b m y b $ m.
R gy g cy by mb c-mc c , cg c c g R; Gzm c mg g y cc
g gy ; bgg cmg / my c; c- m W T Ogz (cxc cy g gb).
O Dcmb , R gm y c c y $ c x B, R cm c cy
B cm. L g Jy , , R - T g Dzb (F) B EU g B b g gy q y M m (bc Jy , ). T cg g g c E$ m mg B bg. O y m yM cmm: y R
x . T B , c g cmc m R. O Jy B m y.
Neighborhood in Flux: Prospects or the European Unions Belarus Policy
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Vm P m c x g g / my -
c. I cb mg Jy , , P b m m x c $. b bg. P m-g g: m g gbg, cy c c g- R m. F R c c c R bg. I U c P g mgg R W b gy .
L, c y gcfc c g , m R y m , b y cmc y m c B- g y.
T R my g bc
L. W P g mmc gg g m -g , m R m m m gy U S R B. T g mM Mc Jy , , g c. U cy g c mcm b b P c
B cg.
By g g c mg x g m m B, R g -. A c Mc g g m m m U S R B, Pmy Amby U B R, g cfc. I, My Ecmc Dm Fg
68 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
S R L: Friendship Blockaded: The Russia/Belarus Conict Is a Post-Soviet Turn-ing Point, SWP Cmm /C , Jy .
Ibid.
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T R F m. B bcm g cy. A m g c mggg,
B bgg c R cz cg b. Tmy m c b g- x, g U c m cy . T b gm g mz, ymbc mc c, , gg . Ag cm-m bg my cm, cmc c cfcc g y m.
Toward a Belarus Policy of the European Union
F g m EU g cy g- c B mg gm BE U gb. Tg cg gcy g, cy , c P L Mc ,, B EU, R, b gcy g.
T cy g m c q U- c B. T m gc c, D M , R. U m mcy m b j cy R W (E U / U S) c jc R EU. R W m c. R c m gb.U B bjc competition o inuencewithin the post-Soviet space.
T U.S. m c mccy B m B Dmccy Ac. A cb m, Cg cc mccy B E-Ac ym, P By g B Dmccy Ac. B bcm gy U.S. g cy E. B
b by U.S. Am yy c E. A $ m b
Neighborhood in Flux: Prospects or the European Unions Belarus Policy
D M, Color Revolutions: The Belarus Case, Cmm P-Cmm S- (), . .
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B x y m ccy. T m Gmy b g c
g b . b B(cg Tm gm my c, y E Gmy y ). Gmy m NGO c x y m Sg Pgm B. M, b- ccm by gg m my c E U.
Fc , , c
gy. S , E U y B Dmccy Ac B mccc, , NGO y gz. T - mcc y gz c c cmg B y b y c B c. I b j - y Gg U c m S bc. Y j m, b
cmmc, m m , bcg jc, y m.
A mm mc-jc gm B bgc by E Cmm. B c y b bgg g y E m. EU cy B b c U.S. cy M, b c mcz B mg. T E U B cy c
x P Bc g E m- E U g cy. I g gy xc y c cg B m R cfc. R c , .
T E U c -, -cy. Sxy g y cy g g B cz. T EU gb cy c cg mcz c. Y EU c m
70 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
R L: Prsidentschatswahl in Belarus. Autoritres Regime, abhngige Staatswirtschat,internationale Isolation, SWP-S, B . [://.-b.g//cmm/g_cm.?_=].
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B E U, , m, c m g, c c-
c c y cm L gm . T B g c E U , m cmmc- z b c by EU, gmcy c gm B y y m B. T m Ax- Mc Sddeutsche Zeitung(Dcmb , ) g g E U j c gb.M, c U R y
g y b, b b cg myB EU c cm bc cy c q. I E Ub gm c B E Ug by cy g m g, mg c, bg c m q M.
F g m m by E Cmm
ymbc, -gc. T b B c A , c, b my ymbc. O , My , c- m c m zg c-mc c b c cc c cy mcc cx c Mc , . A g c Tm c Tmb ( y Dcmb ) c b DcB F, W cy y c b. M, c B, gc c B c c-
Neighborhood in Flux: Prospects or the European Unions Belarus Policy
Ax Mc: Der Eiserne Vorhang des Westens. Ein Geschenk der EU anWeirusslands Diktator Lukaschenko: Die Visagebhren werden zum 1. Januar drastisch erhht,: Sc Zg, .., . .
M, m m mg .Ax Ky, S Cmm Hm R, gg c Gmy m g gm(Frderprogramm Belarus). Sm m m. S: ://.cm../Dc/cm_D/c/D//g/..
S: ://.cm../Dc/cm_D/c///mc/..
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y; L z xc B gc.
S , m m m EU B cy c EU c gmc, -g mg mxmzg fxby E I Dmc-cy Hm Rg, Dcz C, TACIS. TE U TACIS gm B ( m /) c my g .T TEMPUS gm b c c xcg yg B y b, ccm m
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74 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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76 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
Tm Amb: The Political Success o the Russia-Belarus-Relationship. Insulating Minskrom a Color revolution, : ://.mm./m/ISAS//R-B_Tm_Amb..
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Moldovas Uncertain Future
International Crisis Group
Executive Summary And Recommendations
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I. Introduction
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82 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
T g c T Rm/M P R.C G T bc m b cmmy my by cmmy, cg Og Scy C(OSCE) E, c bgg c.
F cc y cfc, C G E R Nmb ,Moldova: No Quick Fix, Ag , .
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Article Title
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S C G R,No Quick Fix, . c.
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II. A Changed International Landscape
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84 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
S C G E R Nmb ,Moldova: Regional Tensions over Transdniestria,J , .
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Moldovas Uncertain Future
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86 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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III. New Pressure on Transdniestria
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Moldovas Uncertain Future
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A. How the Transdniestrian Economy Works
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88 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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Moldovas Uncertain Future
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B. The EUs Engagement
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90 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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Moldovas Uncertain Future
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92 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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Moldovas Uncertain Future
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94 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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Moldovas Uncertain Future
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96 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova
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Moldovas Uncertain Future
R S Dm cm M U c b, Ig,C, Mc , .
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