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The National Center for Atmospheric Research
(NCAR)December 2006
Guy P. BrasseurNational Center for Atmospheric Research
“I have a very strong feeling that science exists to serve human
welfare. It’s wonderful to have the opportunity given us by society to do basic research, but in return, we have a very important moral
responsibility to apply that research to benefiting humanity.”
Walter Orr Roberts
• National Science Foundation funded Center, >1,000 Scientists and engineers, 47 year history
• Earth System Sciences:Computational and Observational Science and facilities for Weather, Climate, Chemistry, Space Weather, Society-Environment Interactions
National Center for Atmospheric Research
• A federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) operated by UCAR and supported by NSF (and others)
• A national center for research and education in the atmospheric and related sciences
• A provider of computational, data, and observational facilities and services for the university community
National Center for Atmospheric Research
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7GLOBAL-MEAN TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 1990 (oC)
PROBABILISTIC PROJECTIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING
TAR RANG
1990-2030
1990-2070
1990-2100
Societal Impacts
SCD
CDS
DFS
FPS
ISF
RAF
RSF
TDF
ACD
CGD
HAO
MMM
AAP
HAP
JNT
NSAP
WSAP
ASP
CCB
IMAGe
TIIMES
ISSE
Computational and Information Systems
Laboratory
(CISL)
EarthObservingLaboratory
(EOL)
Earth and Sun Systems
Laboratory
(ESSL)
ResearchApplications Laboratory
(RAL)
Societal-Environmental Research and Education
Laboratory
(SERE)A. Kellie R. Wakimoto G. Brasseur B. Foote P. Backlund
(Interim)
University Collaborations and New Programs
UCAR
NCAR Directorate
Scientific Research Divisions Newly Formed Institutes Facility and Service Providers Education and Application Programs
July 2006
FY2005 NCAR Expenditures by Fund SourceIn Millions Total: $150.5
FAA$12.3
8%
DOD$11.1
7%
NASA$7.6 5%
UNIV$4.8 3%
NSF$81.4 55%
NSF-Spec$10.1
7%
NSF-HIAPER$9.5 6%
DOE$3.6 2%
OTHER$2.3 2%
NOAA$3.6 2%
COMM$1.8 1%
FOREIGN$2.4 2%
• Integrator – Generating and disseminating knowledge and information across disciplines and from many sources
Themes of NCAR’s Strategy
20012006
• Innovator – Creating new practices and methods across our service, research, and education activities
• Community Builder –Organizing and supporting the community
Threads - Our Crystal Ball
• Amazing Science (weather-seasonal-climate)
• Information Technology• Decision Support• Education• Addressing grand challenges for science
and society in the decades to come
All visitors: 5% ($6.6M)
NCAR – all Labs ($143.9M)
37% 57% 6%
Research E & OService
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Maj
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ffort
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Visi
tors
Bas
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Cam
paig
ns
Visi
tors
Fiel
d pr
ogra
m s
uppo
rt
Obs
erva
tiona
l fac
ilitie
s
Dat
a se
rvic
es
Softw
are
Org
aniz
ed E
&O
effo
rts
Tech
nolo
gy tr
ansf
er
Com
mun
ity m
odel
s
Gra
nd c
halle
nges Indi
vidu
al o
r sm
all g
roup
effo
rts
Com
putin
g se
rvic
es
Visi
tors
Frac
tion
in C
ateg
ory
Investment ($M)10.0 22.1 5.7 11.1 4.5 18.5 8.8 9.3 20.4 6.5 5.5 11.7 1.0 3.3 4.5 1.1
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209
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285
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357
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403
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421
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
NCAR Peer-Reviewed Publications
NCAR Authors Joint with Outside Authors
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50
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1 - 7 days 8 - 30 days 31 - 90 days 91 - 180 days 180+ days
Total NCAR Visits in FY 2006
490
13876
FY 2006 NCAR Visitor UniversiAffiliation
Other33% University
Affiliation67%
41 48
A “Model Center” for the 21st Century
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1993 1998 2003
FemaleMinority
Some New NCAR Scientists
Science Highlights
Weather
Nature Reveals Her Secrets Slowly…
ECMWF
! “Day 5” weather forecast as accurate today as the “Day 3” forecast was 25 years ago!
! Both hemispheres now equally accurate (or inaccurate, depending on your point of view)
NCAR Regional Climate Modeling: 3-y Simulated Tropical Cyclone Development
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SWP NRCMSWP OBS
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NIO NRCMNIO OBS
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ENP NRCMENP OBS
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NAT NRCMNAT OBS
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SIO NRCMSIO OBS
ObservedSimulated
Community Model:NCAR 4 km Moving-Grid Katrina
Wind Forecast
Wind Speed (m/s)
Cat 1: 33-42Cat 2: 42-50Cat 3: 50-59Cat 4: 60-69Cat 5: >69
Initialized27 Aug 2005 00 Z
Decision Support:Land-falling winds, Natural Gas Pipelines, ProcessingPlants & Compressors
Hurricane Ernesto WRF Forecast of Interactions with
Land
NTDA Demonstration Concept/EXPERIMENTAL TURBULENCE FI UAL███/AN N███UA UPLINK-- 05 Sep 2006 21:38:13Z FL 300 orient. 83 deg'+'=waypoint, '*'=route, 'X'=aircraft at 38.3N, 80.6W' '=no_data, 'o'=smooth, 'l'=light, 'M'=mod, 'S'=severe-----------------------(52 to IAD)------------------------
| *| *
MM | *MM | *MM | l lll M *MMM | lollo *lMl | oolo *l | oo *
| *|080 *
M |llllllll ll *MM |lllllllllllllll l *lll |lllllllllollllllll *MMl l |MMllllllllooollllll *MMl l |MMMl lllllllllollll *MM l |MMMM llll llol ll *MM | MMMM ll *MMS | MMM *MSS | MM *MSS +PUTTZ +MSS | * SSSSSSMSS M | l S*SSSSSSSSSMSS M | lllS*SSSMSSSSSMSS l | lSMS*SMMMMSSSSMSS l | SSMM*MMMMMMMMMSS M | MM*SMMMMMMMMlllllMSS M | M*SSMMMMMMMMllllllMMM M | *MMMMMMMMMMMMMllllMMM | * MMlllMMMlMllllllMlll |040 * lllllllllllllllllMMllll | * llllllllllllllllS | * llllllllllMMS | * lllllllSSS | * lllllSSS | * lllMMS | * l llMM | *MM M | MM*MM o
MSS | SM*MMMMM | MM *MM lMM | MMMSS S * l llM | MMMSSM * lllllll ol |l MMMM * lllllo
| MMMMM * llllll| M * lllll| SSS * llll
ll | SSS M l * llll | SSS Mlllll *llM | MM lMlllll * l-------|---------valid-|--------X--------|-----------------90 +90|Left 40 2135Z (18 from 3819N/8058W) Right 40
Java web-based turbulence display
Sample uplink message Flight information
Legend
Route
Severe turbulence
Aircraft position
Waypoint
Vertical cross-section
Moderate turbulence
Severe turbulence
In situturbulence
reports
Moderate turbulence
Atmospheric Chemistry
Chemical Behavior of the Tropopause Observed on the 1st HIAPER Research Flight
Tropopause fold and the mixing of stratosphere and troposphere air2005-12-01, the START experiment
Stratosphere
Trop
Strat
Mix
MixTroposphere
Forecasting Pollution Plumes
• Atmospheric chemistry field campaign flight planning is aided by the ability to forecast the occurrence of pollution plumes
• The ACD satellite and modeling groups have developed a unique tool that was used during the Spring 2006 NSF/NCAR MIRAGE and NASA INTEX-B campaigns
• A pollution plume predictive capability was provided by the assimilation of near-real-time MOPITT carbon monoxide data into the MOZART chemical transport model
• This clearly indicated the intercontinental transport pathways of pollution from Chinese industry and south Asian biomass burning, guiding aircraft flight tracks
Pollution in the Mexico City Valley (Photo taken from the NASA/UND DC-8 Aircraft)
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1000
15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6
Local time, hrs.
ppbv
CONOySO2Toluene
Megacity Impacts on Regional and Global EnvironmentsMIRAGE - IOP 1-30 March 2006
Scientific objectives:• First ever characterization of regional air quality in
Mexico• Geographical extent and temporal persistence of
the urban plume • Regional production of oxidants and radicals• Fate of hydrocarbon oxidation products• Long-range transport of reactive nitrogen • Coupled gas-aerosol processes • Evolution of aerosol radiative and microphysical
properties• Regional surface-atmosphere interactionsPartners:• Agencies: NSF, DOE, NASA, Mexican govt.• Universities: 43 (29 US)• About 300 non-Mexican and 100 Mexican
participantsTools:• NCAR C-130 and 5 other aircraft• 3 ground-based supersites in and near Mexico City• Mobile surface laboratories• Satellite observations and numerical simulations
Climate
A Warming World…
Climate Forcing
Atmosphere Ocean
Coupler
Sea IceLand
C/NCycle
Dyn.Veg.
Ecosystem& BGCGas chem. Prognostic
AerosolsUpperAtm.
ESSL /ESSL /
LandIce
Extensions to physical climate system to treat forcings more realistically
Need for High Resolution
NCAR Models can reproduce past climates
NCAR
The GLOBAL N CYCLE
Putting the pieces together:
The GLOBAL C CYCLE
Melt descending into a moulin, a vertical shaftcarrying water to ice sheet base.
Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)
Surprises in store?
Surface Melt on Greenland
CCSM3 Projections of Degradation of Near-Surface Permafrost
Lawrence and Slater, 2005
Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice
ObservationsSimulated5-year running mean
• Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease
• Extent decreases from 80 to 20% coverage in 10 years.
• Relevant factors:• Ice thinning• Arctic heat transport• Albedo feedback
• Winter maximum shows smaller, gradual decreases
“Abrupt”transition
Simulation of Future Climate
1. Ocean chemistry is changing to a state that has not occurred for millions of years
2. Shell-building in marine organisms will slow down
3. Reef-building will decrease, stop, or reverse
4. Fundamental changes will occur in marine ecosystems
Implications of Ocean Acidification
for Marine Life
Operational Implementation
Ensemble Predictions
Regional Environments
Decision Tools
Integrating research model and data into end-use knowledge systems
Weather/Climate Data Assimilation Models
Reliable Power Delivery
Solar-Terrestrial Relations
Ozo
ne (D
obso
n U
nits
)
NCC
A1B
1980 2030 2050
Global Average Total Ozone Column
Ozone Recovery in the 21st Century
Physics-Based Predictive Model of Solar Cycle Amplitudes
Observed cycles
! Model incorporates poloidal, toroidal magnetic fields and meridionalcirculation
! Cycle 24 will be 30-50% bigger than cycle 23
(Dikpati, de Toma & Gilman, 2006, GRL, in press)
Predicted cyclesQuickTime™ and a
Microsoft Video 1 decompressorare needed to see this picture.
Facility Highlights
State-of-the-art chemistry laboratoryAccess Grids
Office and meeting space
Our Progress – Investment in ScienceOur Progress – Investment in Science
Computing
Modern Climate Model Simulations
NCAR’s Bluesky Supercomputer:• 1600 Processors• Peak speed: 8.3 Teraflops
Characteristics of NCAR Model:
• ~1 quadrillion operations/simulated year
• UN IPCC ~10,800 years simulated
• Rate of simulation: 3.5 sim. years/day
• Output: 10 GB/simulated year
• Data volume for IPCC: ~110 TB (~200,000 Data CDs)
• Development effort: ~1 person-century
Estimated Sustained TFLOPs at NCAR
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Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Sust
aine
d Te
raFL
OPs
ICESS (IBM P5+/P6)
IBM p5-575/HPS(bluevista)
IBM Opteron/Linux(pegasus)
IBM Opteron/Linux(lightning)
IBM POWER4Federation (thunder)
IBM POWER4 Colony(bluesky)
IBM POWER4(bluedawn)
SGI Origin3800/128
IBM POWER3(blackforest)
IBM POWER3(babyblue)
ARCS Phase 4
blueskyblackforest
ARCS Phase 3
ARCS Phase 2
ARCS Phase 1
Linuxblackforest(WH-1)
blackforest(WH-2/NH-2)
bluevista
ICESS
POWER5+
POWER6
Board Presentation, October 2006
The TeraGrid is a facility that integrates computational, information, and analysis resources at the San Diego Supercomputer Center, the Texas Advanced Computing Center, the University of Chicago / Argonne National Laboratory, the National Center for Supercomputing Applications, Purdue University, Indiana University, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Capability Computing - 2009
HIAPER
HIAPER software and displays
$25 B in new satellite missions 2001-2007
Aqua
Terra
TRMM
SORCE
SeaWiFS
Aura
Meteor/SAGE
GRACE
ICESat
Cloudsat
Jason
CALIPSO
GIFTSTOPEX
Landsat
NOAA/POES
COSMIC
Education
5th NCAR Undergraduate Leadership Workshop
June 19-23Gifted college juniors are
nominated by faculty and convene in Boulder for 5 days, co-sponsored by universities and NCAR
Goals for students:• Gain knowledge of state-of-the-art multi-
disciplinary research, facilities, models, & technology developed and utilized at NCAR and NOAA
• Meet scientists who describe their research, career paths, and challenges encountered along the way
• Study models of leadership and consider importance of leadership in the sciences
• Establish a network of student peers from leading programs in the geosciences
http://www.ucar.edu/educ_outreach/ulw/http://www.ucar.edu/educ_outreach/ulw/
20 students from 20 UCAR universities
ASP Graduate Visitor ProgramEnhancing NCAR partnerships with other public and private
institutions
• New program in 2006• Funds graduate student
visits to NCAR for 3-12 months in order to conduct research in pursuit of their thesis
• Funding also available for advisor visit
• NCAR scientist applies on behalf of student and thesis advisor
• Received 24 applications. 19 Funded with 13 advisor visits
Graduate visitors and postdocs hiking during the ASP fellows’ social in August 2006.
Goal: To foster global collaborations among young scientists on integrative research to better understand the role of humans in perturbing biogeochemistry and climate.
First workshop in June, 2005 in Breckenridge, Colorado:52 participants from 17 countries, including India, Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Ghana, Nigeria, Argentina and Brazil•33 also attended CCSM workshop
•To meet at larger scientific meetings, e.g., AGU this year and another workshop in 2006
Funded by AIMES, NCAR-SERE, NCAR-ASP, NSF, MPI and participant organizations
International Postdoctoral Scientist Network for Earth Systems Science
Summary:The Challenge of Simulating the Global
Earth System
Atmosphere Hydrosphere Cryosphere Biosphere
• The geosciences community is poised for petascale capabilities• A balanced system is needed (cycles, software, data, networks, etc.)• The system must address capability and capacity computing• The societal and national need for such a system is growing
Recommended