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The influence of basic spatial structures and the
volume of commuting on the applicability of EURO
method
Kezán András
andras.kezan@ksh.hu
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Project
Goal
To set up a non-overlapping, contiguous system of Labour
Market Areas for the whole country.
Organization
Molnár Ernő Phd – University of Debrecen
Pénzes János Phd – University of Debrecen
Pálóczi Gábor – University of Debrecen
Fábián Zsófia Phd – HCSO
Gerse József – HCSO
Jankó Balázs – HCSO
Szilágyi Dániel - HCSO
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Input data (census)
Employed
(3 942 723)
Temporarily staying
abroad
(56 694)
Living in Hungary
(3 886 029)
Not living and working
in the same LAU2 unit
(1 340 831)
Living and working in
the same LAU2 unit
(2 545 198)
Working in various
LAU2 units
(153 410)
Working in other
LAU2 unit
(1 160 293)
Commuting abroad
(27 128)
Practically in
Hungary that
figure does
not only refer
to daily
commuters!
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Further corrections in commuting matrix
Daily and midterm commuting flows had to be
distinguished. On the basis of the Hungarian commuting
habits, the commuting flows were cut, where the
commuting time exceeded the 90 minutes limit, or the
commuting distance exceeded the 100 km limit. (It meant
only about the 4% of the commuting flows.)
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
SPECIALTIES OF THE
SPATIAL STRUCTURE
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Commuting intensity
%
– 50,0
50,1 – 74,9
75,0 – 99,9
100,0 – 124,9
125,0 – 149,9
150,0 –
Intensity=(Inflows+Outflows)/Local employees
Low
intensity
(rural area)
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Source: PÉNZES J., MOLNÁR E., PÁLÓCZI G.: Helyi munkaerő-piaci vonzáskörzetek az ezredforduló utáni Magyarországon, 2014
Specialties of the spatial structure
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
• The intensity of work-related commute has very significant
differences in different parts of Hungary,
• Lot of areas with low commute intensity in Hungary, with high SC
values in LMAs.
• Towns with agricultural characteristics on the Great Plain have
fairly enclosed labour markets, thus significanty higher SC
values may occur in LMAs in this area.
• The settlement network in different parts of the country has
significant differences, which lead to very different relations amongst
settlements
• Commute to centers (nodal type of commute) is the most typical in
Hungary, which also affects results of the method.
• Several methods can be applied during testing sets of
parameters, but whatever option is chosen, it is worth to
implement a systematic, automatized method.
Systematic, big samples help to understand effects of
parameters, and not appropriate sets of parameters can
be quickly abandoned.
• In our research we had followed the recommendations of
the LMA Task Force. Only one parameter had changed
in each successive run.
Sensitivity analysis
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Possible ways of optimization
Heuristic parameter
tests
Study the impact of the changes in
parameters (sensitivity analysis)
Selective tests
Validation based on centers
Selection of relevant parameter sets
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Validation based on
indicators & statistics
Validation based on
border stability
Seeking parameter sets with the most frequently occured centers
Multivariate statistical models
Global indicators &
statistics
Genetic algorythm
Global indicators
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
avera
ge I
IRC
L
Number of LMAs
0.804
0.806
0.808
0.810
0.812
0.814
0.816
0.818
0.820
0.822
0.824
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Q_m
odula
rity
Number of LMAs
Having studied and tested several
indicators on national level, we
concluded that solely none of them
is capable of guaranteeing
optimization process. The only
indicator suitable for evaluating the
delineation was Q modularity
(Newman–Girvan 2004).
Multivariate statistical models
From theoretical point of view multivariate models could be used to
validate the results of sensitivity analysis:
• Factor analysis and principal component analysis are considered
suitable not just for analysing statistical data, but also for groupping
areas with a focus on labour market (e.g. Kosfeld-Werner 2012).
• Cluster analysis is also suitable for groupping areas (e.g. Smart
1974; Kristensen 1998), but can be used for statistically analysing
LMAs with multivariate modells. In our research hierarchical cluster
analysis was selected from possible methods.
• In the discriminant analysis the dependent variable was the
frequency of occurence of LMAs. The results of 1000 parameters
were distributed into 10 categories.
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Multivariate statistical models
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Similarly to the indicators on country level (e.g. Q
modularity), multivariate modells favor to create relatively
few LMAs, with bigger sizes, therefore those units have
better indicators. It’s also clear that these analytical
methods can’t reflect on possible errors in spatial relations
(e.g. LMAs where relations are not represented well).
Considering these specialties, multivariate modells
should be ignored while choosing the optimal sets of
parameters, even though this approach could (have)
provide(d) proper base to evaluate statistics and to
classificate variables
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Multivariate statistical models
Commuting links (outflows) on the basis
of basic census data
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Stability of borders on the basis of 1000
parameter sets
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Experimental optimization and evaluation
process based on border stability
Creation of border
stability map
Selection of the most
permanent LMA’s
Examination of the
characteristics the remaining (more or less)
unstable LMAs
Selection of those LMAs
that are corresponding
to the definition of
LMAs
Find those outcomes (parameter
sets) in which these
selected LMA’s were appeared
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
• Having studied and tested several indicators on national
level, we concluded that solely none of them is capable
of guaranteeing optimization process. The only indicator
suitable for evaluating the delineation was Q modularity
(Newman–Girvan 2004).
• The quest to find optimal parameters was inevitably
accompanied by researchers’ subjectivity, as neither our
own research, nor literature offered alternative solutions
to manufacture objective results..
• It was very useful to study strongest commute links of
units while searching optimal delineation.
• Studying stability of boundaries was also very useful to
evaluate results.
Evaluation of the outcomes
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
RELATIVISATION AND
SYMMETRIZATION OF
COMMUTING DATA
SMART MEASURE VS. CURDS MEASURE
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Formula
• SMART measure (1974):
𝑇𝑖𝑗2
𝑇𝑖𝑘𝑘 ∗ 𝑇𝑘𝑗𝑘+
𝑇𝑗𝑖2
𝑇𝑗𝑘∗ 𝑇𝑘𝑖𝑘𝑘
• CURDS measure:
𝑇𝑖𝑗
𝑇𝑖𝑘𝑘
+ 𝑇𝑖𝑗
𝑇𝑘𝑗𝑘
+ 𝑇𝑗𝑖
𝑇𝑗𝑘𝑘
+ 𝑇𝑗𝑖
𝑇𝑘𝑖𝑘
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
The 10 000 strongest commuting links
calculated by the Smart measure
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
The 10 000 strongest commuting links
calculated by the CURDS measure
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Stability of borders on the bases of 240
different parameter sets (Smart measure)
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Stability of borders on the bases of 240
different parameter sets (CURDS
measure)
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Example for an erroneous outcome
Dominant commuting links of the LAU2 units were grouped
into „Egyek” LMA (MINSZ=1000 MINSC=0,667 TSZ=10000
TSC=0,75)
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Screening of exclaves
As EURO method doesn’t cover contiguity relations, LMAs created by
the algorythm are often not contiguous. In advance, the following
methods were considered feasible to eliminate exclaves:
• „Network contiguity”, where contiguity is based on administrative
boundaries of settlements or on the inhabited area (on road
network) – the latter option is better.
• In cases where settlements in the surrounding area belong to the
same LMA centre, the exclave is joint to that centre.
• In cases where an exclave is located amongst two or more LMAs,
aspects of microregions could be considered (due to public
administration, educational, health care etc. reasons).
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Problem of the spatial contiguity through
the example of Békéscsaba LMA
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
LABOUR MARKET AREAS IN
HUNGARY
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Labour Market Areas in Hungary
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Differences between the border of LMAs
and NUTS3 regions
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Dominant commuting links and self-
containment of LMAs, 2011
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Recommendations
Several problems left even after these conclusions, which
have to be resolved prior applying the method in all
countries in the European Union:
• Common principles should be set for testing and
selecting parameters to apply the method in every
country (filter parameter-sets for testing).
• Common evaluating criteria should be set to select the
optimal set of parameters.
• Current general selection and evaluation principles
should be finetuned, as the definition of adjacency,
spatial contiguity is not clear, which was apparent in the
case of Hungary.
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
• Objective indicators about the whole delineation should
be selected to support validation process, and to define
how these could be used for evaluation, optimalization.
Methods to find optimal solutions could be tested like
genetic algorithm.
• In association with the latter proposal, clarified methods
would be welcomed for common and expected
evaluation.
• Further tests and finetuning are needed for the EURO
method and for its components, especially for the Smart
measure, as the measure often creates LMAs which are
not in accordance with real commute relations and
results wrong delineations.
Recommendations
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Summary
In general, the EURO method and similar, not pre-
determined spatial delineation methods are deemed
suitable to delineate local labour market areas. However,
the general use of the Smart measure in a common
method is not recommended as its' results are not in line
with real phenomena in areas with special spatial and
commute characteristics. On the bases of these results it is
more than questionable to integrate this measure into
methodological directives. We recommend to study the
current method further, and to refine it prior the
recommendation of its use by the European Commission.
Labour Market Areas: current development and future use,
Rome 16.06.2017
Recommended