The Impact of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) on Technological Innovation and Policy. The...

The Impact of Future-Oriented The Impact of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) on Technology Analysis (FTA) on

Technological Innovation and Policy. Technological Innovation and Policy. The Case of Poly(ethylene The Case of Poly(ethylene

therephthalate) (PET)therephthalate) (PET)

Snezana KrsticSnezana KrsticUniversity of BelgradeUniversity of Belgrade

Faculty of Technology and MetallurgyFaculty of Technology and MetallurgySerbia Serbia

e-mail: snezana@tmf.bg.ac.yue-mail: snezana@tmf.bg.ac.yu

Industry of polymer Industry of polymer materialsmaterials

Manufacturing sector

Recovery sector

Production sectorPolymer resins, granulate

Products –solids, films, fibers, …

Scraps, flakes, chemicals, energy

Industry of polymer Industry of polymer materialsmaterials

Abut 100 million tons per year

Consumption rising steadily

Tailor-made materials meet most advanced technological requirements

Increasingly dynamic business sector

Industry of polymer Industry of polymer materialsmaterials

Global economic downturn related to petrochemical feedstock prices

Environmental pressures

Legislative measures

Market fluctuations

…..

Challenges

Industry of polymer Industry of polymer materialsmaterials

to estimate market and industrial trends

new applications

environmental challenges

…..

Responseto challanges

FTA

Future oriented technology analysis

Economic forecast for Economic forecast for polymer industrypolymer industry

Upstream marketsDownstream markets

New investments in capacity Ratio between production-manufacturing-recovery capacities Economic incentives Fast growing markets in Asia Resin market trends – supply and demand Sensitivity to energy cost fluctuations Oil prices

New applicationsTechnological innovation

PETPETPoly(ethylene terephthalate)Poly(ethylene terephthalate)

Food and packaging industry Textile industry Electronics Automotive sector

Excellent barrier properties

Engineering material

Relatively low price

Good recyclability

Mechanical (material melting)

Chemical (chemical or thermal decomposition)

Energy recovery (incineration)

PETPETPoly(ethylene terephthalate)Poly(ethylene terephthalate)

Rapid market growth

Forecasting PET market Forecasting PET market trendstrends

Forecasted 2.48 million tons

Real over 3.2 million tons1995

PET market growth

0

1

2

3

4

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996

mil

lio

n t

on

s

Forecasted

Real

Forecasting PET market Forecasting PET market trendstrends

Environmental impact

a clear message

As much as we can expect growth of consumption, in reality it can be even higher

Large volume of waste

FTA impact on policyFTA impact on policy

Forecasts assessing increasing consumption and volume of waste

Full landfills

Environmental awareness on waste management

Policy measures worldwide

EU policy related to EU policy related to polymer waste managementpolymer waste management

Several directives and proposals concerning:

Packaging and packaging waste

End-of-life vehicle (ELV) waste

Electric and electronic equipment waste

Waste landfilling

EU Directive on EU Directive on packaging and packaging packaging and packaging

waste (1994)waste (1994)

Plastics:Recovery 50 %Recycling 15%

Various national management approaches to meet the targets

New technologies, new capacities

RESULT

Increased recovery and recycling rates

Germany – “manufacturer responsibilityAustria – industry pays collectionFrance – “shared responsibilityBelgium – eco-taxNetherlands – all users pay ………

EU Directive on EU Directive on packaging and packaging packaging and packaging

waste (1994)waste (1994)

Increasing consumption

Stagnation in recycling rates

With the same recovery capacity larger portion of waste for

landfilling

New challenge

Forecasted

Forecasted

New tough proposal for the DirectiveRecovery 60 %Recycling 22.5 %

FTA impact on policy - USAFTA impact on policy - USA

FDA – Food and drugs administration

Focus on application of recycled materials for new bottles

Toxicant not to exceed 0.5 ppb

Technological innovationProduct

designRecycling

processes

FTA impact on FTA impact on technological innovationtechnological innovation

Forecasts concerning consumption and waste increase

Innovations in recycling

- Innovated technologies for mechanical and chemical recycling

- Designing products more suitable for recycling- New applications for recycled materials

Sustainability condition

FTA impact on FTA impact on technological innovationtechnological innovation

Forecasts concerning market saturations

Innovations for virgin products

Better oxygen-barrier propertiesHot filling

Sophisticated product designs

FTA impact on FTA impact on technological innovation in technological innovation in

various business various business environmentsenvironments

Large petrochemical complexes – innovations related to chemical and thermal decomposition of material

Manufacturing companies – innovations related to savings in materials for bottle production

SMEs – innovations related to product design and new applications

Impact on developing Impact on developing countriescountries

Raising environmental awareness

Different pathways

Rise in investments in capacities in various developing countries

SummarySummary

FTAProduction

Manufacture

Recovery

New applic.

Market growth

Legislation

Technol. innovation

PET

ConclusionsConclusions

All dimension are crucial

Future advancement of FTA

deeper understanding of qualitative information, their proper interpretation and integration into the process

Technology

Economy

Social issues

Environment

PET FTA