The Great Lakes Futures Project€¦ · The Great Lakes Futures Project Synthesis Paper Guidelines...

TheGreatLakesFuturesProjectSynthesisPaperGuidelines

ClimateChange

Forclimatedrivers,itisimportanttolookatbothregional(andfinerscaleifpossible)changesinseasonalaswellasannualtemperatureandprecipita@on.Itisalsoimportanttoexplorehistoricalandprojectedchangesinextremeinboth.Thepapershouldalsolookatsomeoftheproximate,physicaleffectsofthosehistoricalandprojectedchanges;forexample,inicecover,laketemperatures,lakelevels,andwater/sediment/chemicaldeliverlossfromland.

Energy

Forenergydrivers,itisimportanttolooknotonlyattheoveralldemandforenergyintheGreatLakesregion,butalsointhehistoricandprojectedchangesinthemixofenergysources.Itwillbeimportanttoreviewenergymixeswiththemostpoten@alimpactontheGreatLakes(needforcoolingwater,on‐shorevs.off‐shorewind,waterdemand/qualityimpactsofbiofuels,etc.).

WaterasaResource

Forthewaterasaresourcedriver,theinfluenceofanthropogenicandnaturalprocessesonthequan@tyofwaterwithintheGreatLakes‐St.LawrenceBasinshouldbeiden@fied.Areviewofthetypesofanthropogenic(e.g.,popula@on,jurisdic@on,waterusetypes:industrial&domes@c,andpriva@za@on)andnatural(climatechange:increasedstorms,precipita@on,dryperiods)inputsandwithdrawalsshouldbeoutlined,andtheeffectofthesewithdrawalsontheBasiniden@fied.Thepastandpresentlegisla@onthatregulateswaterwithdrawalsfromtheBasinshouldalsobehighlightedandtheroleofchangesinwaterlevelontheprovisionofwatershouldbedescribedinlightoftheproposedfuturewateravailability.

BiologicalandChemicalContaminants

Forcontaminantdrivers,biologicalreferstomicrobes,pathogens,andrelatedtaxa,andnottoinvasivespeciessuchasinvertebrates,plantsandfish.Chemicalcontaminantsincludenutrientsaswellasorganicandinorganicpollutants.Itisimportanttoexplorehistoricalandprojectedpathwaysofentry(i.e.,landusechangessuchasurbaniza@onandagriculture),includingtechnologicalandregulatorychanges.Thepapershouldexamineeffectsofsubstancesonreceivingwaterbiotaandhumanhealth.Thepapershouldprojecttrendsbasedontechnologicalpathwaysinchemicalmanufacture,management,andregula@on,andevolvingmicrobialthreatsandprojectedmanagementac@ons.

AlienInvasiveSpecies

Forinvasivespeciesdrivers,itisimportanttolookataregionalscaleandseparatetheanalysisbyvectorsofentry.Itisalsoimportanttoexplorehistoricalandprojectedregulatorychangesforallvectors.Thepapershouldalsolookatsomeofthebiological,chemicalandphysicaleffectsofinvasivespeciesonecosystemprocesses,economicallyimportantaqua@candterrestrialcommuni@es,andprojectedmovementofinvasivespeciesacrossthebasinunderfuturecondi@onsassociatedwithclimatechangepredic@ons.

TheGreatLakesFuturesProjectSynthesisPaperGuidelines

GovernanceandGeopoliMcs

Forthegovernanceandgeopoli@csdrivers,therela@onshipbetweenCanada‐USandhowitrelatestotheGreatLakesshouldbedescribed.Pointscoveredshouldinclude:HowdoCanadaandtheUnitedStatesorganizeandacttoestablishavisiononGreatLakespolicy?HowdothesecountriesallocateresourceswhenitcomestotheGreatLakes?Howaregoalssetandachieved?Howaretradeoffsnego@ated?Itisimportanttoexamineactorsatthefederal,state‐provincialandregional/localscales.Inaddi@on,theglobalgeopoli@calpictureshouldbeexamined–forexample,havetheGreatLakesplayedaroleinglobalgeopoli@calconcerns?Ifso,how?Ifnot,willaccesstotheGreatLakesbecomeincreasinglyimportanttotheglobalcommunityinthefuture?Forexample,howwillgrowingconsumerdemandandaccesstofreshwaterincountrieslikeChinaandIndiaimpacttheGreatLakes?Howwillcon@nuedmigra@onfromthesecountriesimpacttheGreatLakes–aregionthathasexperiencedseveredemographicdeclinesoverthepast40years,but,onethatalsohastheinfrastructuretoaccommodatepopula@onincreases?Whatfactors(disputes,terrorism,etc.)wouldjeopardizethewateravailability?

DemographicChangeandSocietalValues

Forthedemographicchangeandsocietalvaluesdrivers,variousaspectsofdemographicandsocietalvaluechangeswithintheBasinshouldbeexamined.Forexample,howwillbi‐na@onalpopula@ongrowthatthena@onal,state‐provincialandregionalscalesimpacttheGreatLakesregion?Wherewillpopula@ongrowthbedistributed–na@onally,butalsoattheregionalGreatLakesscale?Whatwillbethecomposi@onofthatpopula@on(e.g.,immigrantversusnon‐immigranttodiscernemergingchangesinsocietalvalues)?WhataboutagetrendsintheGreatLakesregion?Inaddi@on,thefutureofthe“smartgrowth”andsustainabilitymovementsmayhaveanimpactontheGreatLakes.Whatpolicyini@a@vesareinplacethatchecksprawl?WhatarethelandusepacernsaroundtheGreatLakes?WhatlegalissuessurroundlanddevelopmentinGreatLakesmetroregions?

TheEconomy

Fortheeconomydriver,itshouldbeillustratedhowchangesinglobal,con@nentalandregionaleconomiesimpacttheGreatLakes.Thissynthesispapershouldsummarizeeconomicindicatorsandtrends,andofferreasonableprojec@onsintothefutureinareassuchassector‐specific(manufacturing,agriculture,services)economicgrowth(GDP,GMP);exportintensityandsupplychainsbetweenCanadaandtheUS;infrastructureinvestmentandtransporta@on(road,sea,rail)systemtrends;sectorsacrac@ngprivatecapital(e.g.,cleaneconomy);sectorevolu@onindominantregionalmarkets;employment;wages;occupa@onalchange;energyprices;andindustrialproduc@on,amongotherpossibili@es.