The Good, Bad and Ugly of the 2015 Global Economy AGLF ... · May 7, 2015 Strategy, Forecasting,...

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May 7, 2015 Strategy, Forecasting, Risk Analysis

The Good, Bad and Ugly of the

2015 Global Economy

AGLF - Denver

Chris Kuehl

Managing Director – Armada Corporate Intelligence

Economic Analyst – NACM, FMA

2 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

Have I Lowered Expectations Enough Now?

3 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

Europe Sees the US

4 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

What’s Up With Oil?

• The American Contribution

– Import and exports

– Cost structure of shale oil

• The OPEC contribution

– Market share battle

• Russia’s contribution

– All about cash flow

• Europe’s contribution

– Third recession in five years

• Asia’s contribution

– Slow shift away from export centered economy in China

– Low export demand in general

5 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

Falling Much?

6 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

Imports Falling Like a Rock

7 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

8 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

Growth in 2015

9 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

Really Bad

10 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

Public Debt

11 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

Trade Deficit

12 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

Dollar Value

13 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

Just Sayin’

14 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

China Slows Down

15 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

Better than Most

16 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

Just How Big is the US?

17 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

The Global PMI Story

18 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

Mexican Manufacturing

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=DRce5GdfhLjxFM&tbnid=UUqLUn8h9sdS_M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.businessinsider.com/mexico-becoming-manufacturing-powerhouse-2014-4&ei=jq6MU4SgCNiMqAaq-ILwBQ&bvm=bv.67720277,d.b2k&psig=AFQjCNEsgflpF8tvIMcdnDQneUk4E2b3EA&ust=1401814950561888
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=DRce5GdfhLjxFM&tbnid=UUqLUn8h9sdS_M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.businessinsider.com/mexico-becoming-manufacturing-powerhouse-2014-4&ei=jq6MU4SgCNiMqAaq-ILwBQ&bvm=bv.67720277,d.b2k&psig=AFQjCNEsgflpF8tvIMcdnDQneUk4E2b3EA&ust=1401814950561888

19 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

Combined CMI

20 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

Manufacturing CMI

21 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

Service CMI

22 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

Just Could Not Resist

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=hv9gOkTnqpEJsM&tbnid=Y3lhIhbGAKoVNM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.econosseur.com/economic-jokes.html&ei=3uRnU6frH86GogSijIJY&psig=AFQjCNGq35MMVhSrePFeZUUu2GVOsIYEdg&ust=1399404113731176
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=hv9gOkTnqpEJsM&tbnid=Y3lhIhbGAKoVNM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.econosseur.com/economic-jokes.html&ei=3uRnU6frH86GogSijIJY&psig=AFQjCNGq35MMVhSrePFeZUUu2GVOsIYEdg&ust=1399404113731176
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=hv9gOkTnqpEJsM&tbnid=Y3lhIhbGAKoVNM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.econosseur.com/economic-jokes.html&ei=3uRnU6frH86GogSijIJY&psig=AFQjCNGq35MMVhSrePFeZUUu2GVOsIYEdg&ust=1399404113731176
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=hv9gOkTnqpEJsM&tbnid=Y3lhIhbGAKoVNM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.econosseur.com/economic-jokes.html&ei=3uRnU6frH86GogSijIJY&psig=AFQjCNGq35MMVhSrePFeZUUu2GVOsIYEdg&ust=1399404113731176

23 www.armada-intel.com chris.kuehl@armadaci.com May 7, 2015

Contact Information – chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

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