The Evaporating Dream: Homeownership in California

THE EVAPORATINGDREAM:HOMEOWNERSHIPIN CALIFORNIA

April 23,2015

Mid-Year Luncheon

Joel Singer, Chief Executive Officer

OVERVIEW

• The Good News

• Our Challenge

– Affordability Gap

– Homeownership Gap

– Housing Production Gap

– Solving California Housing Problem

• What Kind of State Will CA be?

TODAY’S CALIFORNIA HOUSINGMARKET

Strengthening (even if underperforming)

2015 Q1 HOME SALES UP SLIGHTLY

California, Mar. 2015 Sales: 391,680 Units, +2.3%YTD, +7.3%YTY

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Jan

-14

Jul-

14

Jan

-15

*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualizedSERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Mar-15:391,680

Mar-14:365,120

MEDIAN HOME PRICE CONTINUES TO CLIMB

California, Mar. 2015: $468,550, +9.2% MTM, +7.2%YTY

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Jan

-14

Jul-

14

Jan

-15

P: May-07$594,530

T: Feb-09$245,230-59% frompeak

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Mar-15:$468,550

Mar-14:$437,100

SALES LOOKING POSITIVE SO FAR FOR ‘15

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes, Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct

-11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct

-12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct

-13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)

INVENTORY REMAINS VERY TIGHT

Mar 2014: 4.0 Months; Mar 2015: 3.8 Months

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. Theremaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) anddivide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Jan

-…

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-…

Jul-

08

Jan

-…

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Jan

-14

Jul-

14

Jan

-15

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

• Housing market is under-preforming givenfundamentals

– Low mortgage rates

– Job & Income growth are back

• And yet…

– Sales off 7.6% in 2014 compared to 2013

– Share of first-time buyers LOW

– Affordability key concern for renters

2015 - WHERE ARE WE TODAY?

INVENTORY DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLYIN THE BAY AREA SINCE 2009

BUT REMAINED TIGHT

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. Theremaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) anddivide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

2.4

3.7

4.1

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15

Bay Area Central Valley So CA

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

WHERE IS THE INVENTORY?

– Investors renting instead of flipping

– Mortgage Lock-In Effect

– Where will I go?

– Foreclosure pipeline is dry

– New construction recovering but LOW

– Off-market (aka “pocket’) listings not beingcounted in listing stats

OUR CHALLENGE:HOW TO RE-ESTABLISH HOUSING

AFFORDABILITY ANDHOMEOWNERSHIP

(When Government Policy Fails)

WHERE ARE WE HEADED?

“…By 2025, California will have a middle class ofrenters.”

John Husing, Ph.D Economics

• Housing supply constrained in long-run– New construction recovery is very slow

– Missing 165,000+ new units per year

– Production has fallen short of housing needs

• Inhibited by– Fiscal interests of local government

– Residents who disdain further development, especiallymulti-family

– Unfavorable legal/business environment fordevelopment in general & multi-family in particular

INADEQUATE HOUSING SUPPLYISSUE

CALIFORNIA’S 3 HOUSING GAPS

• Housing Gaps:

– Housing affordability gap

– Homeownership gap

– Housing production gap

• Chronic problems spanning decades, butthey are coming back home to roost…

AFFORDABILITY GAP

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY DOWNSHARPLY SINCE Q1 2012

California vs. U.S. – 1984-2014% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUYA MEDIAN-PRICED HOME

SERIES: Housing Affordability Index of Traditional BuyersSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80% CA USAnnual Quarterly

INCOME REQUIRED TO BUY A MEDIAN-PRICEDHOME IN CA: (PEAK VS. CURRENT)

$56,324

$91,552

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

2012 Q1 2014 Q4

• Change in minimum required income:$35,228

• Increase in income attributed tointerest rate increase:$338 (1.0% of total change)

• Increase in income attributed to priceincrease :$34,890 (99.0% of total change)

SERIES: Housing Affordability IndexSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IN CA: BY COUNTY

SERIES: Housing Affordability IndexSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

HAI

64

59 57 56 5653 53

50 4945

41

31 29 29 28 27 27 26 24 23 22 21 21 2017 15 15 14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

% able to purchase median priced home

2014 Q4

VERY SLOW REAL INCOME GROWTH

$0.00

$10,000.00

$20,000.00

$30,000.00

$40,000.00

$50,000.00

$60,000.00

$70,000.00

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

U.S. CAIn 2013 Dollars

SERIES: Median Household IncomeSOURCE: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

2013 gap = $5600

CALIFORNIA’S MAJOR METROS ARE LESSAFFORDABLE THAN THE AVERAGE U.S. METRO

SOURCE: Legislative Analyst’s Office

RIVERSIDE AND SACRAMENTO ARE STILL BELOW THE AVERAGESHARES OF INCOME DEVOTED TO MORTGAGE PAYMENTS

Source: Zillow

STATE’S LOW-INCOME HH’S SPEND MUCH MORE!

SLOW WAGE GROWTH A CONCERN

$27,010

$45,340

$69,990 $71,630

$87,520 $89,250

$98,400

$119,970

$91,552

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

RetailSalespersons

Chefs andHead Cooks

ElementarySchool

Teachers

Firefighters Police andSherriff's

PatrolOfficers

ComputerProgrammers

RegisteredNurses

SoftwareDevelopers

(Applications)

Min. IncRequired toBuy a Med.

Home

HOW WAGES MEASURED AGAINST INCOMEREQUIRED TO BUY A HOME (2014)

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, C.A.R.

Annual Mean Wage

California

$26,870

$42,610 $44,330

$72,720

$82,830$86,840

$93,180

$103,790

$91,297

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

RetailSalespersons

Auto.Mechanics

Chefs andHead Cooks

ElementarySchool

Teachers

Firefighters ComputerProgrammers

RegisteredNurses

SoftwareDevelopers

(Applications)

Min. IncRequired toBuy a Med.

Home

HOW WAGES MEASURED AGAINST INCOMEREQUIRED TO BUY A HOME

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, C.A.R.

Annual Mean Wage

Los Angeles

MORTGAGE AND RENT PAYMENTS ABOVEHISTORIC SHARES OF INCOME IN LOS ANGELES …

Source: Zillow

$30,340

$52,690 $49,230

$70,680

$88,390$97,570

$124,980$118,690

$194,870

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

RetailSalespersons

Auto.Mechanics

Chefs andHead Cooks

ElementarySchool

Teachers

Firefighters ComputerProgrammers

RegisteredNurses

SoftwareDevelopers

(Applications)

Min. IncRequired toBuy a Med.

Home

HOW WAGES MEASURED AGAINST INCOMEREQUIRED TO BUY A HOME

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, C.A.R.

Annual Mean Wage

San Francisco

… AND IN SAN FRANCISCO

Source: Zillow

$26,610

$46,790$50,730

$67,300

$58,520

$75,980

$105,390 $103,730

$54,400

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

RetailSalespersons

Auto.Mechanics

Chefs andHead Cooks

ElementarySchool

Teachers

Firefighters ComputerProgrammers

RegisteredNurses

SoftwareDevelopers

(Applications)

Min. IncRequired toBuy a Med.

Home

HOW WAGES MEASURED AGAINST INCOMEREQUIRED TO BUY A HOME

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, C.A.R.

Annual Mean Wage

Sacramento

MEDIAN MONTHLY MORTGAGE PAYMENT - CA

What Will Happen When Mortgage Rates Increase?

$0

$400

$800

$1,200

$1,600

$2,000

$2,400

3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5%

$1,525$1,624

$1,727 $1,833$1,942

$2,054$2,169

$2,286Q4-2014 Median Price $452,140

20% Downpayment

INTEREST RATE

MONTHLY MORTGAGE

SERIES: Housing Affordability IndexSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

MINIMUM QUALIFYING INCOME - CA

What Will Happen When Mortgage Rates Increase?

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5%

$81,798$85,768

$89,873 $94,108$98,468

$102,949$107,544

$112,249

Q4-2014 Median Price $452,140

20% Downpayment

INTEREST RATE

Minimum Qualifying Income

SERIES: Housing Affordability IndexSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX - CA

What Will Happen When Mortgage Rates Increase?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5%

36%34%

32%30% 28% 26%

24%23%

Q4-2014 Median Price $452,140

20% Downpayment

INTEREST RATE

% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY, ALL ELSE CONSTANT

SERIES: Housing Affordability IndexSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

NET MIGRATION CA TO TEXAS BY INCOME GROUP

-18,000

-16,000

-14,000

-12,000

-10,000

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

2007

2012

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, IPUMS, CAR

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY GAP

• Affordability crisis goes beyond lowincome households– Lack of affordable housing for low income

service workers is apparent

– Less obvious problem: moderate incomehouseholds who cannot afford homes in/nearcommunities where they work

– In general, there are programs to assist the firstgroup, but not the second group

FEWER HOUSING UNITS BEING TURNED OVERSINCE THE GREAT RECESSION

4.6%5.0%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

CA US

SERIES: Percent of existing single-family homes being soldSOURCE: Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Moody’s Analytics, C.A.R.

LENDING STANDARD DROVE 50% OF THEDECLINE BETWEEN 2001 AND 2012

AFFORDABLE HOMES IN SHORT SUPPLY

HOMEOWNERSHIP GAP

HOMEOWNERSHIP RATES

California Vs. U.S. – 9.9% gap in 2014

53.7%

Peak: 60.2%

54.9%

64.5%

Peak: 69.0%

64.8%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75% CA US

SERIES: Homeownership RatesSOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau

HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE BY AGE OFHOUSEHOLDER

SOURCE: Census Bureau

HOMEOWNERSHIP RATES BY AGE

California

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

SERIES: Homeownership RatesSOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

65 &Above

45 – 64

Overall Rate

35 – 44

Under 35

Immigrants

Native-Born

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 2010-20

forecast

Source: Dowell Myers and John Pitkin, “Immigrant Contributions to the Housing Market…” RIHA, Mortgage Bankers Association,2013

GROWTH IN NUMBER OF IMMIGRANT OR NATIVEBORN OWNER (MILLIONS)

SHARE OF FIRST-TIME BUYERS UP IN ’14 BUTSTILL BELOW LONG-RUN AVERAGE

28.1%30.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

% First-Time Home Buyers Long Run Average

Long Run Average = 38%

QUESTION: Was the buyer a first-time buyer?SERIES: 2014 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT LOW LEVELOF FIRST-TIME BUYERS?

• It signals a constrained flow of new households in thehousing market

• Trade-up market cannot be replenished in the longrun

• First-time buyers represent the main impulse thatdrives the state’s homeownership rate

REASONS FOR RENTING INSTEAD OF BUYING

44%

9%

6%

6%

6%

5%

5%

3%

2%

Can't afford to buy

Poor credit / Can't qualify

Renting is easier

Young/Starting out/Not ready

Flexibility/Freedom if renting

Cost/Upkeep/Responsibility

Plan to / Saving for down

Never considered it/No interest

Disabled/On disability

SERIES: 2013 Renter SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

MILLENIALS – DIFFERENTHOUSING ASPIRATIONS – OR LACK

OF MEANS?

MILLENNIAL “TRUE” HOMEOWNERSHIP FALLING …

… AS AN INCREASING NUMBER OF THEMSTILL LIVE WITH THEIR PARENTS

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Wells Fargo Securities LLC

2010-2020

Dowell Myers, USCPrice

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

West Midwest South Northeast

Source: Dowell Myers and John Pitkin, “Immigrant Contributions to the HousingMarket…” RIHA, Mortgage Bankers Association, 2013

IMMIGRANT SHARE OF GROWTH INHOME OWNERS

MORE IMMIGRANTS FULFILLING THEIRAMERICAN DREAMS

Source: Dowell Myers and John Pitkin, “Immigrant Contributions to the HousingMarket…” RIHA, Mortgage Bankers Association, 2013

CA MILLENNIALS - OVER 1/3 LIVE WITH THEIR PARENTS

What is your current living situation?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

I rent I live with myparents

I own I live in a dorm Other:

41%

36%

20%

1%1%

SERIES: 2014 Millennials SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

MANY OF THEM, HOWEVER, PLAN TOLEAVE THE NEST BY 2018

SOURCE: 2013 Demand Institute Housing & Community Survey; 2013 Demand Institute Housing Forecasts

MILLENNIALS PUT OFF MARRIAGE,BUT IT IS STILL IN THEIR PLAN

SOURCE: American Community Survey; 2013 Demand Institute Housing & Community Survey

MILLENNIALS BELIEVE IN HOMEOWNERSHIP

SOURCE: 2013 Demand Institute Housing & Community Survey

MILLENNIALS’ BIGGEST CONCERNS

What are your biggest concerns about home ownership?

Price/Affordability (45%)

Problems with Credit, Mortgages, or Taxes (19%)

Maintenance/Upkeep (14%)

Satisfaction with Home/Location (7%)

Responsibility (4%)

SERIES: 2014 Millennials SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

STUDENT LOAN DEBT:25% OF RENTERS

Yes, 23%

No, 75%

Refused, 2%

Student Loan Debt

SERIES: 2013 Renter SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

78%

8%

6%

3%

2%

2%

<$10,000

$10-$20K

$20-$50K

$50-$100K

> $100K

Refused

Amount of Debt

STUDENT DEBT: DRAGS ON HOME SALES

PERSPECTIVE ON STUDENT LOANS, MAJORITYNOT AFFECTED

CALIFORNIA’S HOUSING DELIMMA

• Even with everything (or at least most things) going right, ourhomeownership market is in trouble…

• The rental market, even with the conversion of 500,000 SFH’s, isstill exhibiting inadequate supply

• CA Housing Needs = Minimally 165,000 Units Annually– Regulatory Problem– Impact Fees– Public Attitudes

BUSINESS IMPACTS - FEWER HOUSING UNITSBEING TURNED OVER

SINCE THE GREAT RECESSION

4.6%

5.0%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%CA US

SERIES: Percent of existing single-family homes being soldSOURCE: Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Moody’s Analytics, C.A.R.

Housing Turnover Rate(Single-Family Homes only)

HOMEOWNERS DO NOT MOVEAS OFTEN AS THEY USED TO …

18.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

CA Long Run Average

Long Run Average = 15.9

SERIES: Percent of existing single-family homes being soldSOURCE: Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Moody’s Analytics, C.A.R.

Tenure of Homeowners (Years)

NET MIGRATION – CA TO OTHER STATES

NET MIGRATION BY ANNUAL INCOME, 2007-2013

HOMEOWNERS DO NOT MOVEAS OFTEN AS THEY USED TO …

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1970

1973

1976

1979

198

2

198

5

198

8

199

1

199

4

199

7

20

00

20

03

20

06

20

09

20

12

CA US

SERIES: Percent of existing single-family homes being soldSOURCE: Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Moody’s Analytics, C.A.R.

Tenure of Homeowners (Years) Reasons for longer tenure:

• Mortgage Lock-in effects

• “Underwater” homeowners

• Lack of “affordable” trade-up/downproperties

• More costly to move than to remodel

• Investors using properties as rental

• Prop. 13?

HOUSING PRODUCTION GAP

CA PERMITS UP BUT MORE UNITS NEEDED

2014: 85,065 Units, Up 3.4% from 2013

2015f: 89,318 Units

SERIES: New Housing PermitsSOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000 Single Family Multi-Family

Household Growth: 165,000/yr

HOUSING CONSTRUCTION HAS SLOWED IN THECALIFORNIA’S COASTAL METROS

Total Number of SFH Building Permits by Region

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Inland Coastal

SERIES: New Single Family Housing PermitsSOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board

-5,485 165,105223,058

575,156

957,834

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 - 2012

Households not formed

# OF HOUSEHOLDS LOST IN THE GREATRECESSION

SOURCE: California Dept. of Finance; compiled by C.A.R.

POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS WILLCONTINUE TO GROW

California 1970-2020

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

198

0

198

2

198

4

198

6

198

8

199

0

199

2

199

4

199

6

199

8

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

SOURCE: Moody’s Analytics

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

Why the Production Shortfall?

• Shortage of Land:– Production shortfall greatest in cities where need is most

critical

• High Costs of Development– Fees in most California communities are higher than

elsewhere in US

– Infill development costs higher than suburban developmentcosts

– Environmental policies, etc increase costs

– Lengthy permitting process increases cost per unitproduced and favors deep pockets

• General Desire for Low Density Land Use– Preference for detached single family homes

– Disdain for multifamily developments

• Cost of service to cities higher than other land uses

• NIMBYism:– Desire to preserve existing character of community

– Dislike for multifamily, higher density development by residents andofficials

– Quality of life concerns

– Fear of crime and other negative aspects associated with density

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

WHAT IS OUR FUTURE?

“…If current trends continue, California will build less than 60percent of the new housing needed over the next 20 years.”

Little Hoover Commission Report on Housing in California

SOLVING CALIFORNIA’SHOUSING PROBLEM

SOLUTIONS

• Production Gap is Primary Source of CA’s HousingProblems

• Solutions must include:– Increase in Production

• Infill and brownfield opportunities in urban areas whereshortage is critical

– Revitalization of Neighborhoods– Change Incentive Structure Facing Cities

• Fiscal• Housing & Zoning Requirements• Enforce housing elements of general plans, create incentives to

comply

– Improve Business & Legal Climate for Developers –CEQA Reform

SOLUTIONS

• Attitude Shift is Essential to Moving TowardSolutions…

– By Households as Residents– By Households as Taxpayers– By Local Elected Officials– By State Officials

• … and an Attitude Shift Requires Education andHeightened Awareness of Problems, Implications, andSolutions!

• Solutions will take time

SOLUTIONS - LOCAL

• Permanent city affordable housing subsidy source

• Dedication of a share of county tax increment financingto affordable housing

• Revise zoning code and/or density bonus ordinance toincrease

• Ease parking and set-aside requirements to enable morebackyard homes; granny flats

• Convert unlawful but affordable units

• Collaborate with business community

SOLUTIONS - STATE

• CEQA Reform

• Inclusionary Zoning

• Experiment with social impact bonds & health fundsas a source

2015 FORECAST

CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f

SFH Resales (000s) 474.9 416.5 422.6 439.8 414.9 383.3 398.4

% Change 24.5% -12.3% 1.4% 4.1% -5.9% -7.6% 3.9%

Median Price ($000s) $275.0 $305.0 $286.0 $319.3 $407.2 $447.0 $473.1

% Change -21.1% 10.9% -6.2% 11.6% 27.5% 9.8% 5.8%

Housing Affordability

Index 51% 48% 53% 51% 36% 30% 28%

30-Yr FRM 5.0% 4.7% 4.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.3% 4.5%

SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

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