The Election. Ray Fair Model GOODNEWS: Number of quarters of an administration in which the growth...

The Election

Ray Fair Model

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

VOTE with XGOODNEWSQuarters

GOODNEWS: Number of quarters of an administration in which the growth rate of real per capita GDP is greater than 3.2 percent at annual rate

GOODNEWS

VOTE

VOTE: Republican share of two-party

presidential vote in election

The vote equation for 2012 is then: VOTE = C + .B*GROWTH - .B*INFLATION + B*GOODNEWS

National Party identification 1937 -2012

National (Dem.)

National (Rep.)

South (Dem.) South (Rep.) Non-South (Dem.)

Non-South (Rep.)

1940 to 1950

0.8 -2.6 -13.4 5.5 1 -2.7

1950 to 1960

2.4 -4.4 -12.9 2.8 2.4 -3.6

1960 to 1970

-3.4 -1.5 -10.2 2.5 -1.8 -2.2

1970 to 1980

2.4 -3 3.9 0.3 1.9 -4.1

1980 to 1990

-11.2 10 -16.7 15.2 -9.3 8.21990 to 2000

1.3 -3.1 0 -2.3 1.8 -3.5

2000 to 2010

-2.4 -0.7 -4.5 0.6 -1.4 -1.5

Party Identification by Decade

Obama as Divider

Average R approval Average D approval Gap

Obama year 2 13 percent 83 percent 70%

Obama Year 3 12 percent 84 percent 72%

Independents will decide who wins

How Independents Vote in Presidential Elections (Exit Polls)

Source: National Election Pool

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

% R

epub

lica

n -

% D

emoc

rat

How Independents Vote in House Elections (Exit Polls)

Source: National Election Pool

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

% R

epub

lica

n -

% D

emoc

rat

47

45

Gallup Most Important Problem(June 2012)

Economy (General) 31 %

Unemployment 25

Government 12

Federal Budget Deficit 11

Healthcare 6

Lack of money 5

Ethical / Moral decline 4

Education 4

The Presidential Election: Historical Approval Richard NixonDwight Eisenhower Jimmy Carter

Ronald Reagan Bill Clinton

George W. Bush

George H.W. Bush

Barack Obama

2008: Obama 365, McCain 173

MA-12MT-3

WA-11

OR-7

CA-54

NV-4

ID-4

UT-5

NM-5AZ-8

WY-3

CO-8

NE-5

SD-3

ND-3

OK-8

KS-6

TX-32LA-9

AR-6

MO-11

IA-7

MN-10

IL-22

WI -11

IN-12

KY-8

TN-11

MS-7 AL-9

SC-8

GA-13

FL-25

NC-14

VA-13WV-5

OH-21

PA-23

NY-33

ME-4VT-3

RI-4

CT-8NJ-15

DE-3

MD-10

DC-3

HI-4

AK-3

MI-18

NH-4

ObamaMcCain

Strategy & the 2008 Electoral College

Changed Electorate 08-2012

Minority voters (80% Obama) UP 3% from 2008

White working class (41% Obama) DOWN from 2008 by 3%

Examples: Nevada minority vote UP 9% from 08While white working class is DOWN 5%Wisconsin : minorities UP 3% white working class

DOWN 7%

2012 ELECTORAL COLLEGE ANALYSISRepublicans need to pick-up 90 Electoral Votes

MA-11MT-3

WA-11

OR-8

CA-54

NV-5-12.5

ID-4

UT-6

NM-5-15.1

AZ-10

WY-3

CO-8-8.1

NE-5

SD-3

ND-3

OK-8

KS-6

TX-36LA-8

AR-6

MO-10

IA-6-9.6

MN-9-10.2

IL-21

WI -11-13.9

IN-12-1.0

KY-8

TN-11

MS-7 AL-9

SC-9

GA-14

FL-26-2.8

NC-14-0.4

VA-13-6.3

WV-5

OH-19-4.5

PA-22-10.3

NY-32

ME-4VT-3

RI-4

CT-8NJ-14

DE-3

MD-10

DC-3

HI-4

AK-3

MI-17

NH-4-9.6

Strategy & the 2012 Electoral CollegeSwing states both Democratic and Republican

MT

OR-7

CA-55

NV

ID-4

UT-5

NM

AZ

WY-3

CO

NE-5

ND-3

OK-7

KS-6

TX-34LA-9

AR-6

MO-11

IA

MN-10

IL-21

WI

IN

TN-11

MS-6 AL-9

SC-8

GA-15

FL

NC

VAWV-5

OH

PA

NY-31

NH-

Strategy & the 2012 Electoral CollegeThe battleground states for 2012

3

-4

3

5

6

4

-27

11

2

-5

6

6-2

-4

8

Things not to pay attention to.

The Public’s Interest

Average # of Viewers (Millions)

Source: Nielsen Media Research. GOP Data: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/17/business/media/republican-debates-are-a-hot-ticket-on-tv.html?pagewanted=all,

American Idol 29.3Dancing with the Stars 18.42 Broke Girls 19.2

2012 Florida GOP Debate 5.4

O’Reilly 3.6 Fox News 2.7

Rachel Maddow 0.4

YouGov Campaign Poll

“In a press conference last week, President Obama was asked about the state of the economy. How did he describe economic growth in the private sector?”

“The private sector is doing fine.” 47%

“The private sector is struggling.” 9

“The private sector is mostly the same as it was.” 4

“I didn’t hear what he said.” 39

Other Examples

Romney “very poor” 34 %

Obama “birth control mandate” 26

Santorum “birth control” 43

Romney “Etch-A-Sketch” 45

What did Obama Say? (6/16-18)

Didn’t hear 39

18-29 51

30-64 39

65+ 25

Male 30

Female 48

Democrat 43

Republican 35

Independent 29

Santorum’s Position? (3/3-6)

Didn’t hear 43

18-29 40

30-64 46

65+ 39

Male 34

Female 52

Democrat 39

Republican 48

Independent 36

The Republican Nomination Contest

Iowa Caucus 6.5 %

New Hampshire Primary 31.1

South Carolina Primary 17.6

Florida Primary 12.8

Nevada Caucus 1.9

Minnesota Caucus* 1.2

Colorado Caucus 1.8

Missouri Primary 7.4

Maine Caucus* .5

Betting pools President

Most competitive House seats(242R – 191D)

. TX-27 (Open - R) 14. MD-6 (Bartlett - R)

2. IL-11 (Open - R) 15. IL-10 (Dold - R)

3. IL-8 (Open - R) 16. FL-22 (Open - R)

4. CA-41 (Open - R) 17. NH-2 (Bass - R)

5. NC-13 (Open - D) 18. IL-12 (Open - D)

6. CA-31 (Miller - R) 19. NC-7 (McIntyre - D)

7. IN-2 (Open - D) 20. CA-7 (Lungren - R)

8. IL-17 (Schilling - R) 21. UT-4 (Matheson - D)

9. NC-11 (Open - D) 22. WA-1 (Open - D)

10. NC-8 (Kissell - D) 23. CA-24 (Capps - D)

11. GA-12 (Barrow - D) 24. NV-3 (Heck - R)

12. AR-4 (Open - D) 25. MN-8 (Cravaack –R)

13. OK-2 (Open – D)

DemocratConnecticutHawaiiMichiganNew MexicoOhio

Toss UpsFloridaMassachusettsMissouriMontanaNevadaNorth DakotaVirginia

RepublicansArizonaIndianaNebraska

Wisconsin47 Democrats Five lean or solid Republican

Two lean or solid Democrat One toss-up

45 Republicans

Betting pools House

Betting pools Senate

The End Thank You

MA-12MT-3

OR-7

CA-55

NV-6

ID-4

UT-5

NM-5AZ-10

WY-3

CO-9

NE-5

SD-3

ND-3

OK-7

KS-6

TX-38LA-9

AR-6

MO-10

IA-6

MN-10

IL-21

WI -10

IN-11

KY-8

TN-11

MS-6 AL-9

SC-8

GA-15

FL-29

NC-15

VA-13

OH-18

PA-20

NY-31

ME-4VT-3

RI-4

CT-7NJ-15

DE-3

MD-10

DC-3

HI-4

AK-3

MI-17

NH-4

Best Hopes for Changes from 2008-2012

Wash 11

WV

MA-12MT-3

OR-7

CA-55

NV-5

ID-4

UT-5

NM-5AZ-10

WY-3

CO-9

NE-5

SD-3

ND-3

OK-7

KS-6

TX-34LA-9

AR-6

MO-11

IA-7

MN-10

IL-21

WI -10

IN-11

KY-8

TN-11

MS-6 AL-9

SC-8

GA-15

FL-27

NC-15

VA-13

OH-20

PA-21

NY-31

ME-4VT-3

RI-4

CT-7NJ-15

DE-3

MD-10

DC-3

HI-4

AK-3

MI-17

NH-4

Electoral College 2008

Wash 11

WV

• I was just going over the primary rules and polls today, and I noticed• >> that Romney has a huge advantage in the Winner Take All primaries• >> (Arizona, California, Florida, New Jersey, Utah). They account for• >> 375 delegates, and he leads (or has won) in almost all of these WTA• >> states. If he stays up in the polls in those states (as he currently• >> is) it will be very hard for Santorum to catch Romney in delegates,• >> even if Santorum wins a larger share of the vote in the primaries.• >> What are the chances that Santorum beats Romney in California?• >>• >> In this respect, the GOP primaries resemble the Gary Hart v. Walter• >> Mondale contest.

WAR

WAR

The Road to the 2012 U.S. National Elections

David Brady and Morris Fiorina

Hoover Institution

July 11, 2012

“A week in politics is a long time”

(4 months in politics is a very long time)

Gallup Trial Heats

August 1948: Dewey > Truman + 11

August 1976: Carter > Ford + 22

August 1980: Carter = Reagan even

August 1988: Dukakis > Bush + 12

August 2000: Bush > Gore + 7

August 2008: Obama = McCain even

Republican Nomination Contest

Santorum

Romney

Road Map

• Where is U.S. coming from (politically)?

• What happened between 2008 and 2012?

• The 2012 election (Brady)

Republican Realignment?

Pres House Senate

2000 R R R

2002 R R R

2004 R R R

Karl Rove

“The real prize is creating a Republican majority that would be as solid as, say, the Democratic coalition that Franklin Roosevelt created--a majority that would last for a generation …”

(Nicholas Lemann interview, New Yorker, May 12, 2003.

2006: Republican “Thumpin”

House -30 seats

Senate - 6 seats

Governors - 6 states

James Carville, 2009

40 More Years: How the Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation

(New York: Simon & Schuster, 2009)

2010: The Great Shellacking

House 63 seats

Senate 6 seats

Governors 7 states

State Legislatures ~17 chambers

State Legislators 675 +

Patterns of Institutional Control

Pres House Senate

2004 R R R

2006 R D D

2008 D D D

2010 D R D

Normal People

Uninformed, Confused, Ambivalent

(Busy)

Not Extreme, Pragmatic, Not Ideological

Little Change in Partisanship

'52 '56 '60 '64 '68 '72 '76 '80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '080

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Strong and Weak Democrats Independents including leaners Strong and Weak Republicans

Per

cent

Source: ANES

Little Change in Voter Ideology

19741976

19781980

19821984

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Liberal Moderate Conservative

Per

cen

t

Source: GSS

Political Overreach

• Lyndon Johnson 1964-1966-1968• Jimmy Carter 1976-1980• Bill Clinton 1992-94• Newt Gingrich 1994-96• George W. Bush 2004-2006-2008• Barack Obama 2008-2010-?

George W. Bush

“I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it.” (2004)

“On social security, I may have misread the electoral mandate …” (2010)

“… generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children … that this was the moment when we began to provide care for the sick and good jobs for the jobless; this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.”

Barack Obama, June 4, 2008

Approval Rating of George W. Bush

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Feb-0

1

May

-01

Aug-0

1

Nov-0

1

Feb-0

2

May

-02

Aug-0

2

Nov-0

2

Feb-0

3

May

-03

Aug-0

3

Nov-0

3

Feb-0

4

May

-04

Aug-0

4

Nov-0

4

Feb-0

5

May

-05

Aug-0

5

Nov-0

5

Feb-0

6

May

-06

Aug-0

6

Nov-0

6

Feb-0

7

May

-07

Aug-0

7

Nov-0

7

Feb-0

8

May

-08

Aug-0

8

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Ap

pro

vin

g o

f G

eo

rge

W B

us

h's

Jo

b A

s P

res

ide

nt

Source: The Gallup Organization

State of the Country: Right Direction v. Wrong Track

Note: July 9th, 2012 most recent data point

Obama Job Approval

Note: Latest data from July 9, 2012.

Health Care Plan

Note: Latest data from 12/7/2011.

Obama Job Approval: Independents

Note: Latest data from 2/21/2012