View
2
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
The Driver Shortage: Issues and TrendsAn independent analysis of professional drivers
in the UK logistics sector
Prepared for FTA by RepGraph Ltd
October 2016
The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 1
1
Contents
DriverShortageKeyPerformanceIndicators.........................................................................2ReportSummary...................................................................................................................3EmploymentinUKLogistics..................................................................................................4LGVDrivers:EmploymentandClaimantCount......................................................................5EmploymentofLGVdriverscomparedtogeneralemployment..................................................5LGVdriveremploymentbycountryandregion...........................................................................6LGVdriverclaimantcount............................................................................................................7DriverShortageNumber.......................................................................................................8LabourForceSurveystatistics–drivershortagenumber............................................................8LGVDriverEmploymentStatus.............................................................................................8Driverjobturnover.......................................................................................................................9Driverturnovercalculation........................................................................................................10Churnwithintheindustry..........................................................................................................10DriverPayandConditions....................................................................................................11Paymeasures.............................................................................................................................11Measuresofworkinghours........................................................................................................12LGVDriverAge:AProfessionDominatedbyOlderMaleDrivers..........................................13AverageageforLGVdrivers.......................................................................................................13LGVdriveragecomparedtogeneralpopulation.......................................................................13Gender........................................................................................................................................14NewEntrantsandTestPassRate.........................................................................................14Initialqualification......................................................................................................................14LGVdriverapprenticeships........................................................................................................15LGVpassrate..............................................................................................................................15Age.........................................................................................................................................16Gender...................................................................................................................................16
ProblemsRecruitingProfessionalDrivers.............................................................................17DriverShortage:BarriersandSolutions................................................................................17
2 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 2
DriverShortageKeyPerformanceIndicators
Indicators 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Drivershortagenumber 35,189 69,551 52,720 43,087 34,567
AverageageofLGVdriver 48.1 47.9 48.0 48.0 47.9
TotalnumberofLGVdriversinemployment
290,000 259,000 285,000 299,217 315,495
NumberofEULGVdriversinemployment 18,247 16,562 19.062 25,109 31,542
PercentageofEULGVdriversinemployment 6.3% 6.4% 6.7% 8.4% 10.0% Numberofnon-EULGVdriversinemployment 1,817 1,011 1,034 2,735 3,780
Percentageofnon-EULGVdriversinemployment 0.63% 0.39% 0.36% 0.91% 1.20%
LGVdriverchurn 7.7% 7.1% 9.8% 9.7% 5.8%
Workingpopulationchurn 4.2% 4.1% 4.4% 4.9% 4.5%
LGVdriverpaygrossweekly £471 £484 £494 £505 £519
Numberofdriversclaimingjobseekersallowance*
6,400 4,885 2,220 1,055 620
Numberofapprentices 7,620 5,510 4,000 4,930 5,470**
NumberofLGVpracticalteststaken 46,549 46,246 48,283 55,161 70,233
Numberofpracticaltestspassed 24,401 24,498 26,224 30,574 39,000
Levelofdifficultyrecruitingdrivers(QTAS)***
43% 54% 67% 82% 76%
*FiguresforMayeachyear(i.e.midpointofQ2)**Provisional***FromQ2ofeachyearfortheFTAQTASsurvey
The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 3 3
ReportSummary1. Thedrivershortageiscurrentlyestimatedat35,000LGVdrivers
2. TheaverageageofanLGVdriveris47.9years(downfrom48.1lastyear).Overthelast
15yearstherehasbeenasteadyincreaseinaveragedriverage,risingfrom45.3yearsin2001to48yearsatthepresenttime
3. Around64percentofLGVdriversare45yearsorolder.Only2percentofemployeddriversareunder25whereas10percentofthetotalemployedpopulation(ofworkingage)isunder25
4. ThenumberofLGVdriversinemploymenthasincreasedby5percentcomparedtolastyear
5. ThenumberofLGVdriversclaimingJobseeker’sAllowanceinQ22016was620.ByAugust2016,thenumberhadfallenfurtherto530whichdown38.4percentfromayearagoand96.5percentlowerthanthepeakof15,255inMarch2009duringtheeconomicdownturn
6. 5,470peoplestartedapprenticeshipprogrammeslearningtodrivegoodsvehiclesin2015/16whichisanincreaseof11percentcomparedto2014/15butis28percentlowerthan2011/12.
7. 36,615drivers(bothLGVandPCV)acquiredaDCPCthroughtheinitialqualificationfromApril2015toMarch2016–anincreaseof22percentonthepreviousyear
8. ThenumberofpracticalLGVpracticalteststakenintheyeartoendofMarch2016increasedto70,233whichis27percenthigherthanlastyearandisnowatpre-recessionlevels.Althoughthepassratehasgraduallyimprovedsincefinancialyear2007/2008,onlyjustoverhalfoftesttakerspass
9. IntheyeartotheendofMarch2016,overhalf(58percent)ofalltestsweretakenby
thoseundertheageof35.Theaverageageofapersontakingapracticaltestwas34
10. FTAmembersreportedaroundthesamelevelofdifficultyinrecruitingdriversinthesecondquarterof2016comparedtothepreviousquarter.InQ22009however,justover20percentofrespondentshadproblemsrecruitingLGVdrivers,thishasnowincreasedtoaround76percentinQ22016
Note:Inrecentyearsthetruckandcoachlicensingcategorynameshavechanged.HGV(HeavyGoodsVehicle)isnowLGV(LargeGoodsVehicle).ForconsistencyinthedocumentthetermLGVisused.
4 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 4
EmploymentinUKLogisticsTable1providesabreakdownofemploymentinUKlogistics.1Thetotalnumberofpeopleemployedinlogisticsoccupationsand/orworkingforcompaniesinthelogisticssectorisnowaround2.5million.Table1:Broaddefinitionofemploymentinlogistics:numbersandpercentagesemployed
LogisticsoccupationsEmployment* Nationality**
Logisticssector
Allothersectors Total % UK EU Other
Purchasingmanagersanddirectors
8,501(5,181)
49,587(49,870)
58,088(55,051)
2%(2%)
52,556[90%]
2,090[4%]
3,442[6%]
Managersanddirectorsintransportanddistribution
37,795(34,326)
42,520(44,688)
80,315(79,014)
3%(3%)
71,118[89%]
7,425[9%]
1,772[2%]
Managersanddirectorsinstorageandwarehousing
34,954(26,554)
74,371(57,641)
109,325(84,195)
4%(4%)
102,884[94%]
4,836[4%]
1,605[1%]
Importersandexporters 5,160(5,181)
1,935(5,829)
7,095(11,010)
0%(0%)
5,054[71%]
705[10%]
1,336[19%]
Transportanddistributionclerksandassistants
25,985(24,611)
42,798(38,859)
68,783(63,470)
3%(3%)
66,403[97%]
2,380[3%]
0[0%]
LargeGoodsVehicledrivers209,861
(188,468)105,634
(110,749)315,495
(299,217)13%
(13%)280,173[89%]
31,542[10%]
3,780[1%]
Vandrivers112,637(88,729)
138,631(107,511)
251,268(196,240)
10%(8%)
223,232[89%]
22,378[9%]
5,658[2%]
Fork-Lifttruckdrivers 31,109(30,440)
65,921(55,698)
97,030(86,138)
4%(4%)
74,286[77%]
20,466[21%]
2,278[2%]
Postalworkers,mailsorters,messengersandcouriers
133,372(127,588)
28,234(29,145)
161,606(156,733)
6%(7%)
146,264[91%]
12,181[8%]
3,161[2%]
Elementarystorageoccupations
176,346(161,914)
223,074(229,918)
399,420(391,832)
16%(17%)
296,371[74%]
92,867[23%]
10,182[3%]
OtheroccupationswithintheLogisticsSector
996,003(927,443) N/A
996,003(927,443)
39%(39%)
861,940[87%]
94,070[9%]
39,993[4%]
Total1,771,723(1,620,435)
772,705(729,908)
2,544,428(2,350,343) 100%
2,180,281[86%]
290,940[11%]
73,207[3%]
*NumbersinroundbracketsareforQ22015,providedforcomparison**PercentagesinsquarebracketsareproportionoftotalIntheyearfromQ22015toQ22016thelogisticssectoraddedover150,000jobstotheeconomyandwhen‘allothersectors’areincluded,employmentinlogisticsincreasedbyover190,000.Thisreflectsthesteadyincreaseinlabourdemandoverthelast2-3years.TheLGVdriverpopulationhasexpandedby15,000(5percent)thisyear,helpingtoreducethedriverdeficit.Non-UKnationalsrepresent11percentoftheLGVdriverpopulation:1percentarenon-EUnationalsand10percentareEUnationals.Ofthe10percentofdriversfromtheEU,themajoritycomefromEasternEuropeandinparticularPoland,RomaniaandHungary.Theproportionofthepopulationwhoidentifybeingavandriverastheirmainoccupationhasrisenappreciablyby28percentovertheyear.InQ22015,vandriversaccountedfor8percentofjobsinlogisticsbutthishasgoneupto10percentthisyear;anincreaseofover55,000.Around11percentofvandriversarenon-UKnationalsandEUnationalsrepresent9percentofthelogisticsvandriverpopulation(around22,000drivers).
1Source:RepgraphanalysisofONSLabourForceSurveyforQ2,2016
The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 5 5
Intotal,around365,000non-UKnationals(14percentoflogisticsworkers)areemployedinlogisticsandnearly300,000(11percent)areEUnationals.Byproportion,mostEUnationalsareemployedinwarehousingandstoragerelatedoccupations.EUnationalsrepresent21percentoftheforkliftdriverpopulation(around20,500drivers)and23percentofelementarystorageoccupations(around93,000jobs).
LGVDrivers:EmploymentandClaimantCount
EmploymentofLGVdriverscomparedtogeneralemployment2InQ22016accordingtotheONSLabourForceSurvey,therewere315,495peopleemployedasLGVdrivers,comparedwith321,455professionaldrivers10yearsearlier(areductionof2percent).Atthesametimenationalemploymentstatisticsindicatedthattherewereatotalofover31.66millionjobsinJune2016comparedto29.10million10yearsearlier,whichisanincreaseof9percent.Whiletotalemploymentnumbershaveincreasedoverthelast15yearstherehasbeenasignificantfallintheproportionofLGVdrivers(droppingby15percentfrom2001to2013,butrecoveringsomewhatsincethen).ThenumberofLGVdriversinemploymentincreasedovertheperiodfromQ22015toQ22016(upby5percent),butthiswasinlinewithareductioningeneralunemploymentduetoimprovedeconomicconditionsandisstilljustbelow2007pre-recessionlevels(Figure1).Figure1:LGVdriversinemploymentcomparedtogeneralemployment
2Source:ONSLabourForceSurveyEmploymentstatusbyoccupation,tablesEMP04andEMP16Q22001-Q22015
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
Num
bero
fjob
s(no
rmal
ised
toQ
2-20
01)
TotalnumberofJobs
NumberofLGVDrivers
6 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 6
LGVdriveremploymentbycountryandregionNearlyonehalfofdriversareemployedinCentralandNorthernEnglandwiththelargestproportionworkingintheNorthWestofEngland(Figure2).TheregionthatemploysthehighestproportionofLGVdriversisNorthWestEngland.Perhapsunsurprisingly,NorthernIrelandhasthesmallestproportionofdrivers(3percent),followedbyWales.Figure2:PercentageLGVdriveremploymentbycountry/region
The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 7 7
LGVdriverclaimantcountThenumberofLGVdriversclaimingJobseeker’sAllowanceinQ22016was620(takingthemonthofMayasthemid-pointforQ2).ByAugust2016,thenumberhadfallenfurtherto530whichis down38.4percentfromayearago.AccordingtotheUKLabourMarketstatisticspublishedbytheONStheUKclaimantcount3wasslightlyhigher(0.3percent)inAugust2016comparedtoJuly4.Atthesametime,thetrendforLGVdriversclaimingJobseeker’sAllowancecontinueditsdownwardtrajectory,fallingby7.0percentinthesameperiod.FortheUKasawhole,theclaimantcountwas771,000,downbyonly2.7percentfromayearago.
ThisstatisticshowsthatlabourmarkettrendsforLGVdriversintheUKisoutofstepwithgenerallabourmarkettrends.Onthesurfacethismayseemlikegoodnews,butinrealitythereisanever-shrinkingpoolofactivejobseekersfromwhichtosourcedrivers.ThecurrentLGVdrivers’claimantcountis96.5percentlowerthanthepeakof15,255inMarch2009duringtheeconomicdownturn,almostdoublethatoftheUKasawholeinthesameperiod.
Figure3:EmploymentandunemploymentofLGVdrivers,UnitedKingdom,Q220165
3 PeopleoutofworkclaimingJobseeker’sAllowanceorUniversalCredit4Sources:Nomis-Claimantcountbyoccupation(Augustfigures)14September20165Sources:Nomis-Claimantcountbyoccupation(Mayfigures)15June2016andONSLabourMarketStatistics-TableEMP04:AllInEmploymentByStatus,Occupation&Sex(Q2figures)17August2016
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
LGV
driv
ersc
laim
antc
ount
Num
bero
fLG
Vdr
iver
s
ClaimantCount Numberinemployment
8 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 8
DriverShortageNumberThedrivershortagenumberisestimatedbycomparingjobgrowthforthegeneralpopulationwithLGVdriversbasedonONSLabourForceSurveystatistics.
LabourForceSurveystatistics–drivershortagenumberAnanalysisoftheofficialONSLabourForceSurveydataestimatesthatthecurrentdrivershortagefigureis34,567.
LabourForceSurveyanalysis1. In2001therewereestimatedtobe305,629LGVdrivers.2. AsofJune2016therewere315,495LGVdrivers.3. Atthesametime,thetotalUKeconomyhadadded14.5percentmorejobscomparedto2001.4. AssumingthattheindustriesemployingLGVdrivershavetrackedtheeconomyasawholein
termsofdemandforjobs,thenthereshouldbea14.5percentincreaseinthedemandforLGVdriverssince2001.
5. Thisequatesto350,062LGVdriversrequired.Thereforetheshortfallinthenumberofdriversisestimatedtobe350,062–315,495=34,567asofmid2016.
6. Thisislikelytobeaconservativeestimatesincetheriseine-commerceandhomedeliveryinrecentyearsislikelytohaveexacerbateddemandforLGVdriverscomparedtomanyothervocations.
LGVDriverEmploymentStatusFigure4showstheemploymentstatusoftheUK’sLGVdrivers.6Figure4:LGVdriveremploymentstatus
InQ22016,9percentofrespondentsindicatedthattheywereself-employedwhilst91percentstatedthattheywereemployees.Thiscomparestoonly6percentwhowereself-employedin2009duringtherecession.7Thisisprobablycausedbytheimprovementintheeconomycreatingmoreopportunitiesfordriverstosetupontheirown.Theincreasedproportionofself-employeddriversmaybecontributingtothedifficultiescurrentlyexperiencedbyfirmsinrecruitingpermanentLGVdrivers.PerhapsnotsurprisinglymostLGVdriversworkfulltime(Figure5).8
6Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q220167Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q220098Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q22016
9%
91%
Self-employeddrivers
Driverswhoareemployees
The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 9 9
Figure5:LGVdriversinfullandparttimework
InQ12016,95percentofrespondentsstatedthattheyworkedfulltimeand5percentparttime.TherewasnochangecomparedtoQ22009attheheightoftherecession,whenthesameproportionreportedthattheywereworkingfulltime.TheconsistentlysmallproportionofparttimeworkingisprobablyduetojobworkpatternsmakingitverydifficulttoemployLGVdriversonaparttimebasis.NinetysevenpercentofLGVdriverswereinapermanentjobinQ22016,9highlightingthelargeamountofworkavailableandthelargedemandforLGVdriversatthemoment.AgencyworkerscontinuetorepresentasmallproportionofLGVdrivers.InQ22016only3percentofrespondentsstatedthattheywereagencyworkers,10reflectinglowdemandcurrentlyforagencystaff,asemployersprefertotakeonpermanentLGVdrivers.
DriverjobturnoverMostLGVdrivershaveremainedwiththesameemployerforarelativelylongperiodoftime.Figure6showslengthoftimeincurrentjobasofQ22016.Figure6:LGVdrivers:Timeincurrentjob
Alargemajorityhavebeeninthesamejobformorethantwoyearsandmorethanhalfhavebeeninthesamejobformorethanfiveyears,whichisinlinewiththetrendacrossthegeneralworkingpopulation.11
9Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q2201610Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q2201611Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q22016
95%
5%
Fullnme
Partnme
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Perc
enta
geo
fres
pons
es
10 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 10
DriverturnovercalculationEachyear,theQ2LabourForceSurveyincludessupplementaryquestionsnotcontainedintheotherquarters,suchas‘occupationayearpreviously’.Thesedataareusedtoestimatedriverturnover:
DriverTurnoverCalculations1. ThenumberofLGVdriversinQ22015was299,2172. NumberofLGVdriversinQ22016was315,4953. Thisrepresentsa5percentnetincreaseinthenumberofLGVdriversfromQ22015toQ2
20164. ThemeannumberofLGVdriversovertheperiodfromQ22015toQ22016was307,3565. InQ220169,155or3percentLGVdrivershadlefttheindustryforanotherjobwithinthe
year(9,155/307,356)Theresultsshowthatdespitethe3percentattritionovertheperiod,therewasanet5percentextraLGVdriverjobscomparedtoayearearlier.ThisisindicativeofcontinuedstrengthinthedemandforLGVdriversthathasbeenbuildingsincetheendofthelastrecession.Thechallengefortheindustryremainshowtoretainalargernumberofdrivers.
ChurnwithintheindustryIntheQ22016LabourForceSurvey41,550LGVdriversindicatedthattheyhadbeenintheircurrentjobforlessthanoneyear.Atthesametime,around4.5millionpeopleinthenationalworkingpopulationwerealsointheirpresentpostforlessthanayear.ThefollowingchartillustratesthejobchangedetailsforLGVdrivers.Figure7:LGVdriverchurn
EvenaccountingforthelargeproportionofLGVdriverswhoseoccupationayearearlierwasunknown,18,310ofthosedriverswhohadbeeninpostforlessthanoneyearhadmovedfromonedrivingjobtoanother.ThisequatestoaconservativeestimateofLGVdriverchurnof5.8percent(18,310/315,495).Thesamefigureforthegeneralworkingpopulation(i.e.forsame-vocationannualchurn)is4.5percent.ItishoweververyencouragingthatLGVdriverchurnhasdecreasedtoitslowestlevelinthelastfiveyears,havingpeakedin2014whentheeconomicrecoverywasdrivingdemandatagreaterratethanperhapsitisnow.
18,310
9,859
13,380 MovedfromonedrivingjobtoanotherWereinanon-driverjobayearagoUnknownwhatjobwasayearago
The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 11 11
Table2:LGVDriverchurnforthelast5years
Year LGVDriverChurn% Workingpopulationchurn%2012 7.7 4.22013 7.1 4.12014 9.8 4.42015 9.7 4.92016 5.8 4.5The2016figurenonethelessdemonstratesthatalthoughchurnofLGVdrivershasdecreasedinrecentyears,professionaldriversarestillmovingjobsatagreaterratethanthenationalaveragefortheworkingpopulation(29percentgreaterchurninLGVdriversthanchurnacrossallvocationsthisyear).FindingwaystoretainLGVdriversinthesamejobisthereforeabigchallengeforthelogisticsindustry.12
DriverPayandConditionsTheLabourForceSurveyasksparticipantsaboutvariousaspectsoftheirpayandemploymentconditions,includingaverageweeklyandhourlypayaswellashoursworkedandovertime.ThissectionpresentstheresultsoftheanalysistothesequestionsforLGVdrivers.
PaymeasuresTheLabourForceSurveyincludesseveralmeasuresofpay.Thefollowingtableprovidesdetailsforthemostinformativepaymeasures:Table3:LGVdriverpay
Q22015 Q22016 Responses Mean Median Responses Mean Median %change*Grossweeklypay 110 £505 £486 109 £519 £538 +2.8Netweeklypay 109 £402 £403 111 £416 £415 +3.5Grosshourlypay 107 £10.31 £10.00 106 £10.82 £10.60 +4.9Basichourlyrate 50 £10.26 £10.00 48 £10.22 £9.50 -0.3*meanpayGrossandnetweeklypayroseabovetherateofRPIinflationasdidgrosshourlypay,whichwasupbynearly5percentonthepreviousyear.Basichourlyrateswerebroadlyunchanged,indicatingthatgrosshourlypayincreaseshaveprobablyarisenfromincreasedovertimeremuneration(althoughitshouldbenotedthatbasichourlyrateiscalculatedusingasmallersamplesize).Overall,theresultsindicatethatdriverpayincreasesarestilloutpacinginflation.Analysisofaveragegrosshourlyandweeklypayforeachagebandrevealedthatwagesweresignificantlyhigherfordriversovertheageof30.Forthe20-29yearoldagebracket,theaveragegrossweeklypaywasaround£480,butthiswasaround£550forthe30-39agebracket(15percenthigher).Beyondtheageof40,therewasnosignificantchangeingrossweeklypay.Thelargepaysteparoundtheageof30probablyreflectstheextravalueemployersplaceonmoreexperiencedLGVdrivers.Itshouldhoweveralsoserveasanincentivetoyoungerpeoplejoiningtheprofession,whocanexpecttheirearningstorisesignificantlyiftheyremainwithintheindustryforjustafewyears.12Source:LabourForceSurvey,Q22016
12 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 12
Risingpressureonstartingsalaries
ForQ22016theaverageweeklygrosspayforthosewhoheldtheirjobforlessthanayearwas£425.17comparedto£403.33ayearearlier,anincreaseof5.4percent.Thisriseiswellabovetherateofinflationandnearlydoubletheaverage2.8percentincreaseinaveragegrossweeklypay,indicatingacurrentupwardpressureonstartingsalaries,possiblycausedbydifficultiesinrecruitingLGVdrivers.
MeasuresofworkinghoursWorkingtimeiscapturedviaanumberofvariablesintheLabourForceSurvey,includingusualandbasicweeklyhoursofworkaswellasusualweeklyhoursofovertime.Table4:LGVdriverhours
Q22015 Q22016 Usualhours: Responses Mean Median Responses Mean Median %changeExcludingovertime 257 45.3 45 240 45.4 45 0.2%Includingovertime 183 51.7 50 183 52.2 51 1.0%Paidovertime 181 8.2 7 184 8.3 8.0 1.2%Unpaidovertime 186 0.75 0 187 0.52 0 -30.7%Hoursofworkbothincludingandexcludingovertimeincreasedmarginallyhoweverhoursofunpaidovertimedecreasedinthesameperiod.Amajorityofrespondentsreportedthatovertimewaspaidatmorethantheirbasicpayrate(78percent)with22percentbeingpaidovertimeatthesamerateastheirbasichours.Sixtyonepercentreportedthattheywerepaidatafixedhourlyrateand39percentatavariablerate.Asmallmajorityreportedthattheirhoursofworkvaryfromweektoweek(198outof352inQ22016)whilstlessthan5percentstatedthattheywouldliketoworklongerhoursatcurrentbasicpay.
The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 13 13
LGVDriverAge:AProfessionDominatedbyOlderMaleDrivers
AverageageforLGVdriversOverthelast15yearstherehasbeenasteadyincreaseinaveragedriverage,risingfrom45.3in2001to47.9atthepresenttime(Figure8).Itishoweverencouragingtonotethattheaveragedriveragehaslevelledoff,decreasingveryslightlyfromlastyear.Figure8:AverageageofLGVdriverpopulationoverthelast15years
Source:QuarterlyLabourForceSurveys,2001-2016(Q2foreachyear)
LGVdriveragecomparedtogeneralpopulationDataonagedemographyfromtheLabourForceSurvey(Q22016)revealedthatover64percentofLGVdriversare45yearsorolder.13Thisisvastlydifferenttotheeconomy-widedemographics,wherethepopulationaged45yearsorolderinemploymentwasfoundtobearoundhalf(Figure9).Only2percentofemployeddriversareunder25(thisisupfrom1percentlastyear),whereasover10percentofthetotalemployedpopulationisunder25.ThelargenumberofLGVdriversovertheageof65(around21,000)alsopointstocontinuedpressuresondriverrecruitmentinordertobackfillpositionsvacatedduetorecentretirements.
13Source:QuarterlyLabourForceSurvey,Q22016
44
45
46
47
48
49
Aver
age
LGV
driv
era
ge
14 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 14
Figure9:Agedemographicsforprofessionaldriverscomparedtothegeneralpopulation
Source:QuarterlyLabourForceSurvey,Q22016
GenderLabourForceSurveydataindicatesthattheLGVdriverprofessioncontinuestobedominatedbymen.Theapproximateestimateisconsistentlyaround1percentforfemaledriversinthepopulationhowever,thesmallnumberoffemaledriverrespondentspreventsamoreaccuratemeasure.InthesampleofLabourForceSurveyrespondentsinQ22016,only3(0.7percent)werefemale.
NewEntrantsandTestPassRate
InitialqualificationThefiguresfordriversacquiringDCPCthroughtheinitialqualification(whichrepresentsnewentrantstotheindustrywhodidnotholdacategoryClicencepriorto10September2009)areprovidedinTable5.Therewasa22percentincreaseinnewentrantsfortheyearendingMarch2016comparedtothepreviousyear.Table5:Initialqualification
Financialyear DCPCinitialqualification14April08–March09 3,948April09–March10 7,524April10–March11 12,104April11–March12 14,003April12–March13 16,511April13–March14 21,054April14–March15 30,025April15–March16 36,615
14https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/driver-certificate-of-professional-competence-cpc-statistics
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
LGVdriver Generalpopulanon
Perc
enta
geo
ftot
al(%
)
16-24
25-34
35-44
45-59
60-64
65+
The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 15 15
LGVdriverapprenticeshipsLatestfigurespublishedinApril2016bytheSkillsFundingAgencyandtheDepartmentforBusiness,InnovationandSkillsprovisionallyindicatedthatforthe12monthsfromAugust2015toAugust2016,5,470peoplestartedapprenticeshipprogrammeslearningtodrivegoodsvehicles.15whichisanincreaseof11percentcomparedto2014/15butis28percentlowerthan2011/12.Table6:LGVdriverapprenticeshipnumbers
Year 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16Count 7,620 5,510 4,000 4,930 5,470**provisional
LGVpassrateThepassrateforLGVdriversimpactsonthenumberofdriversinemployment.ThenumberofpracticalteststakenintheyeartotheendofMarch2016increasedby27percentcomparedtolastyearandisnowbacktopre-recessionlevels.Overallthenumberofteststakenhasincreasedby60percentsincethelowof2010/11.Althoughthepassratehasgraduallyimprovedsincefinancialyear2007/2008,onlyjustoverhalfoftesttakerspass(Table7).16Table7:Practicallargegoodsvehicle(LGV)test,17GreatBritain:2007/08to2015/16
Year Tests Passes %passrate182007/08 70,766 32,779 46.3%2008/09 65,852 32,298 49.0%2009/10 46,426 23,876 51.4%2010/11 43,894 22,664 51.6%2011/12 46,549 24,401 52.4%2012/13 46,246 24,498 53.0%2013/14 48,283 26,224 54.3%2014/15 55,161 30,574 55.4%2015/16 70,233 39,000 55.5%
15https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/fe-data-library-apprenticeships16https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/drt05-practical-large-goods-vehicles-LGV-test-pass-rates17IncludestestcategoriesC,C1,C+E,C1+E18Source:DfT2016Practicallargegoodsvehicles(LGV)testpassrates(DRT0501)
16 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 16
Age
IntheyeartotheendofMarch2016,overhalf(58percent)ofalltestsweretakenbythoseundertheageof35.Inadditiontheaverageageofapersontakingapracticaltestwas34.Figure10:AgebreakdownforthenumberofpracticalLGVtestsconducted19
Gender
ThenumberofwomentakingthepracticalLGVtesthasremainedbetween6and7percentofalltesttakerssince2008.Thepassrateforwomenishoweverconsistentlyhigherthantheirmalecounterparts.Table8:Passratesformenandwomen
Year Malepassrate Femalepassrate2007/08 46% 48%2008/09 49% 52%2009/10 51% 55%2010/11 52% 53%2011/12 52% 54%2012/13 53% 53%2013/14 54% 59%2014/15 55% 59%2015/16 55% 58%
19Source:DfT2016Practicallargegoodsvehicles(LGV)testpassrates(DRT0503)
The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 17 17
ProblemsRecruitingProfessionalDriversAccordingtoFTA’sQuarterlyTransportActivitySurvey(QTAS)July2016,FTAmembersreportedaroundthesamelevelofdifficultyinrecruitingdriversinthesecondquarterof2016comparedtothepreviousquarter.InQ22009however,justover20percentofrespondentshadproblemsrecruitingLGVdrivers;thishasincreasedtoaround75percent(Figure11).Figure11:Problemsinrecruitingprofessionaldrivers
DriverShortage:BarriersandSolutionsInJune2016,FTAconducteditsannualTransportManagerSurveyandfoundthatover46percentofrespondentsreportedthatinrecentmonthstheywereeitherunabletofillLGVdrivervacanciesorhadexperiencedlongdelaysindoingso.Only24percentoftransportmanagersreportedthattheyhadexperiencednoissuesatall.AmajorityoftransportmanagersanticipatedashortageofLGVdriversinthenearfuturewithmostblamingretirementasthegreatestcontributingfactor(Figure12).Figure12:ReasonsforanticipatedshortageofLGVdriversinthecomingmonths
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
enta
geo
fres
pond
ents
repo
rgng
pr
oble
msi
nre
crui
gng
driv
ers
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Upturnintheeconomy
DriverCPC
Lackofapprennces/trainees
Driversrenring
Percentageofresponses
18 The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 18
‘Financialcostofacquiringalicence’wasrankedasthegreatestbarriertodriverrecruitment,followedbypoorindustryimageandlackofapprenticeshipschemes(Figure13).Figure13:Barrierstodriverrecruitment
Respondentsindicatedthatincreasingtheavailabilityandfundingforapprenticeshipswasthemostimportantmeasuretoaddresstheproblemofrecruitmentanddeployment(Figure14).Figure14:Measurestoaddressdriverrecruitmentanddeployment
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
DriverCPC
Lackofcareersadvice
Youngdriverinsurancepremiums
PassingtheLGVpracncaldrivingtest
Lackofapprennceshipschemes
Poorindustryimage
Financialcostofacquiringalicence
1=smallestbarrier7=greatestbarrier
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Driverroadsidefacilines
Incennvestorecruitlong-termunemployed
Accesstostudenttypeloans
Improveindustryimage
Staffdevelopment
Guidanceonskills,fundingandsupport
Increasetheavailabilityandfundingforapprennceships
1=leastimportant7=mostimportant
The Driver Shortage: Issues and Trends 19 19
For‘othermeasures’thatwouldhelpaddressrecruitment,‘improvingdriverpay,hoursandconditions’wasagainthemostpopularresponse,asitwasforotherreasonswhydrivershortageswereanticipated(Figure15).
Figure15:Othermeasurestoaddresstheproblemofdriverrecruitmentanddeployment
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Improvepublicimageofdrivers
Increaseapprennceshipsupportandreducequalificanoncost
Reducedriverregulatoryburden
Improvedriverpay,hoursandcondinons
*Calls may be recorded for training purposes
10.16/SR
Tel: 01892 526171*Fax: 01892 534989
www.fta.co.uk
Freight Transport Association Limited
Hermes House, St John’s Road, Tunbridge Wells, Kent TN4 9UZ • Registered in England Number 391957
www.repgraph.co.uk
Recommended