The Democrats The Sprint that Turned into A Marathon

The Democrats

The Sprint that Turned into A Marathon

The Rules Matter Proportional Representation with a 15%

threshold

There is a prize for second place

Once you get a lead, it is hard to lose it

The Democratic Field Those who didn’t run

Those who ran, but had not chance

Those who mattered

Those Who Didn’t Run Gore

Kerry

Mark Warner

Evan Bayh

Those Who Had Little Chance Dennis Kucinich

Mike Gravel

Other Also Rans Chris Dodd

Bill Richardson

Joe Biden

The Top Tier- Those Who Mattered Hillary Clinton

Barack Obama

John Edwards

John Edwards

Hillary Clinton- Advantages Fundraising

Name Recognition

Experience

Hillary Clinton- Disadvantages Polarizing

Iraq Vote

The Clinton Years

Obama in 2004, A Rise from Obscurity Benefits from A

Primary and General Election Scandal

Steals the Show at the 2004 Democratic Convention

Obama’s Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths

Weaknesses

THE INVISIBLE PRIMARY

The Early Money Game Clinton and Obama Forgo public money

Advantages of this for the candidates

Clinton’s Money Strategy Scare off Potential Rivals

Control the debate through spending

Use the expected early victory to reload

Why the Clinton Strategy fails Obama almost matches her 2007 Haul

How Obama does it

Delegate Strategy Obama’s Strategy

Clinton’s Strategy

Electoral Bases Obama• Younger voters• Upper-income

voters• Liberals and

Netroots• African-Americans

Clinton • Women• Lower & Middle

Class• Hispanics• Originally African-

Americans

Obama’s Message About Himself

About Clinton

Clinton’s Message About Herself

About Obama

December 31, 2007 Clinton Leads by 17% Nationwide

Obama on the Rise

Obama Leads in Some Iowa Polls

THE CAMPAIGN BEGINS(Finally)

The Iowa Results

Iowa- Why Obama Wins

Obama Outworks Clinton

Enthusiasm and Turnout were high

The Fallout The Losers Leave

This is a disaster for Clinton

The Rocky IV Analogy

New Hampshire Some said this was Clinton’s Last chance

Clinton Comes back hard on Obama

The New Hampshire Primary

The Results Clinton Regains Her Base

Richardson is done

Edward’s is now the 3rd of 3 candidates

S.C. and the Change in African-American support

Obama wins by 28 Points

Edward’s drops out

African American support tilts to Obama

The Clintons get angry

Nevada, Michigan and Florida Clinton wins Michigan and Florida, but no

one cares

Clinton wins Nevada, but loses the delegate count

Super Tuesday: The supposed Clinton Coronation.

Obama wins 13 states

Clinton Wins more votes but fewer Delegates

No knockout blow

Clinton Trails by 55 delegates at days end

The Clinton Camp in Disarray No Money

No Strategy

March 4th: Clinton’s last chance February Belongs to Obama

Texas and Ohio

American meets William Ayers

The 3:00 AM Ad

March 4th favors Clinton Popular vote wins in Both States

BUT Marginal delegate gains

The Final Months Jeremiah Wright and the Speech on Race

Proportional Representation

Clinton’s Last Grasp

Putting Superdelegates to the Test

Obama’s belief

Clinton’s Counter

The Last Day of Voting

How Obama Won Money

Knowing the Rules

How Obama Won- Caucuses Advantages

Results

The Advantage of the Long Campaign Scrutiny

Kept him in the News

Tested his leadership

Made the party enthusiastic