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The Canadian Retail Real Estate Market Overview
Presented for:
Toronto Real Estate Forum 2013
Presented by: John G. Crombie, National Retail Director
Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. john.crombie@ca.cushwake.com
(416) 756-5448
December 5, 2013
RETAIL SERVICES
1 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
In 2012, retailers sold an estimated
$469.9 billion worth of goods and services
RETAIL IN CANADA Basic Facts
FOOD & BEVERAGE SALES IN CANADA Record high sales of food & beverage in 2012 with $104.3 billion EMPLOYMENT Retail sector is Canada’s largest employer. 12.5% of Canadian jobs RETAIL SPACE IN CANADA 513 million SF of Shopping Centres (average size – 186,000 SF) 169 million SF of Power Centres (average size – 323,000 SF) 236 power node (Power Centres plus nearby Shopping Centres). Almost 40% located in Ontario RETAILERS IN CANADA Top 100 Retailers in Canada control over 70% of the market share 50% of Canada’s leading retailers are foreign owned and operated (largely US) Top 5 Foreign Owned Retailers in Canada control 19% of total retail sales (1,423 stores)
» Wal-Mart, Costco, Safeway, Hudson ‘s Bay & Home Depot
Canadian Retail Real Estate Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales
RETAIL SERVICES
3 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
CANADA VS. UNITED STATES – CONSUMERS CONFIDENCE
Source: J.C. Williams/ICSC
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-
05A
pr-0
5Ju
l-05
Oct
. 05
Jan.
06
Apr
. 06
Jul.
06O
ct. 0
6Ja
n. 0
7A
pr. 0
7Ju
l. 07
Oct
. 07
Jan.
08
Apr
. 08
Jul.
08O
ct. 0
8Ja
n. 0
9A
pr. 0
9Ju
l. 09
Oct
. 09
Jan.
10
Apr
. 10
Jul.
10O
ct. 1
0Ja
n. 1
1A
pr. 1
1Ju
l. 11
Oct
. 11
Jan.
12
Apr
-12
Jul-1
2O
ct-1
2N
ov-1
2D
ec-1
2Ja
n-13
Feb-
13M
ar-1
3A
pr-1
3M
ay-1
3Ju
n-13
Jul-1
3A
ug-1
3
US
CC
I Ind
ex (1
985
=100
)
CD
N C
CI I
ndex
(200
2=10
0)
Canada
U.S.
RETAIL SERVICES
4 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
CANADIAN RETAIL SALES Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Statistics Canada
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
(billi
ons)
Retail Sales are Going Up … but Retailer ‘s Margins are Going Down
RETAIL SERVICES
5 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
Retail Spending vs. Canadian Housing Prices Growth Rate, year over year
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Teranet/National Bank Home Price Index Retail Spending
%
Source: The Globe & Mail/Bloomberg
RETAIL SERVICES
6 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
Eastern Canada 7.4%
Quebec 22.1%
Ontario 35.1%
Western Canada 35.1%
Northern Canada 0.4%
Toronto CMA = 16.0%
Source: Statistic Canada
CANADIAN RETAIL SALES GEOGRAPHY - 2012 92.3% of Sales are in Western & Central Canada
Manitoba = 3.6% Saskatchewan = 3.7% Alberta = 14.7% British Columbia = 13.1%
Yukon = 0.1% Northwest Territories = 0.2% Nunavut = 0.1%
Nfld & Labrador = 1.8% PEI = 0.4% Nova Scotia = 2.8% New Brunswick = 2.4%
RETAIL SERVICES
7 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
RETAIL SALES PRODUCTIVITY – CANADIAN MALLS
Source: ICSC Research
Approximately $601 PSF
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
RETAIL SERVICES
8 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
CANADIAN MALL PERFORMANCE – RETAIL SALES By Province - 3Q 2013
Source: ICSC Research
RETAIL SERVICES
9 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
RETAIL SALES PRODUCTIVITY – US SHOPPING MALLS
$320
$340
$360
$380
$400
$420
$440
$460
$480
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: ICSC Research
Approximately $466 PSF
RETAIL SERVICES
10 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
RECENT ARRIVALS OR EXPRESSING INTEREST IN CANADA
American Retailers
European Retailers
Source: Cushman & Wakefield 2013
RETAIL SERVICES
11 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
FOREIGN ARRIVALS IN CANADA – 1990 TO 2011
Source: Ryerson University CSCA
RETAIL SERVICES
12 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
RECENT DEVELOPERS INTO CANADA – OUTLET MALLS
Canadian Retail Real Estate Technology Effecting the Retail Business
RETAIL SERVICES
14 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
TECHNOLOGY EFFECTING OUR INDUSTRY Omni-Channel Strategies
Evolving multi-channel dynamics increase the
importance of a cohesive omni-channel
strategy
QR CODE-DRIVEN VIRTUAL SUPERMARKETS
(South Korea Subway Stations)
BRICK & MORTAR MOBILE
AMAZON.COM STORE
BRICK & MORTAR
INTERNET
POP-UP STORE
BRICK & MORTAR
SOCIAL MEDIA
RETAIL SERVICES
15 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
TECHNOLOGY EFFECTING OUR INDUSTRY
RETAIL SERVICES
16 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
TECHNOLOGY EFFECTING OUR INDUSTRY
Retail Real Estate Rental Rates, Vacancy Rates
RETAIL SERVICES
18 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
CANADIAN HIGH STREET - RENTAL RATES 2012 vs. 2013 (Street Level)
City Submarket 2012 Average Net Rent ($/sq.ft.)
2013 Average Net Rent ($/sq.ft.)
Vancouver Robson Street $220 $215
Calgary 17th Avenue SW $45 $50
Edmonton Whyte Avenue $45 $45
Montreal Saint-Catherine West (street level) $180 $190
Ottawa Sussex Drive $50 $50
Toronto Bloor Street $320 $320
Toronto Queen Street $100 $110
Source: Cushman & Wakefield 2013
RETAIL SERVICES
19 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
STORE VACANCY RATES BY SHOPPING CENTRE TYPE 2007 2012
Source: CSCA, 2013
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Power Centre Super Regional Regional Community Neighbourhood Strip
Vacancy Rate 2007 Vacancy Rate 2009 Vacancy Rate 2012
RETAIL SERVICES
20 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
This report contains information available to the public and has been relied upon by Cushman & Wakefield on the basis that it is accurate and complete. Cushman & Wakefield accepts no responsibility if this should prove not to be the case. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. 2013
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