View
217
Download
1
Category
Tags:
Preview:
Citation preview
The Baltic Ways of Human Development
Professor Marju Lauristin
Editor of the special Baltic issue of the Estonian Human Development Report 20101/2011
EHDR 2010/2011 :
a special ‘Baltic’ issue
• Comparison of Estonian. Latvian and Lithuanian human developments in the context of EU Baltic Sea strategy: could we discover a common pattern?
• Participation of social scientists from all three countries on personal base
EHDR 20101/2011 content and authors
• Ch 1: General and specific features in human development of Baltic states during transition. Comparative trends. Publc opinion. What kind of capitalism? Impact of economic reforms. Peeter Vihalemm (Tartu), Marju Lauristin (Tartu), Zenonas Norkus (Vilnius), Erik Terk (Tallinn), Alasdair Reid (Brussels)
• Ch 2 : Demographic changes, life expectancy, health care. Mare Ainsaar (Tartu). Juris Krumins (Riga), Valda Stankuniene (Vilnius), Ain Aaviksoo (PRAXIS), Riina Siigur (PRAXIS)
• Ch 3 peatükk: Social policy, labour market, life satisfaction. Mare Ainsaar (Tartu). Jolanta Aidukaite (Vilnius), Raul Eamets (Tartu), Anu Realo (Tartu), Henrik Dobewall (Tartu)
• Ch 4 peatükk: Education. Path of reforms. Present problems, Mati Heidmets (Tallinn). Andris Kangro (Riga), Arvydas Matulionis (Vilnius), Viktoria Zilinskaite (Vilnius), Viive Ruus (Tallinn), Krista Loogma (Tallinn)
• Ch 5 : Language landscape and human capital. Language policy and integration of minorities in Baltic states Triin Vihalemm (Tartu). Anu Masso (Tartu), Maarja Siiner (Tartu), Meilute Ramoniene (Vilnius), Svetlana Djackova (Riga), Ineta Dabašinskiene (Kaunas), Violeta Kaledaite (Kaunas), Gabrielle Hogan-Bruun (UK), Robert Phillipson (Denmark)
• Ch 6 Political developments. Consolidation of democracy. Political culture. Vello Pettai (Tartu). Daunis Auers (Riga), Aine Ramonaite (Vilnius).
• Ch 7: Baltic cooperation; experience of past and scenarios for the future. Erik Terk (Tallinn). Ramunas Vilpišauskas (Vilnius), Veiko Spolitis (Riga)
• Cg 8 Conclusions: Baltic way in XXI century. Marju Lauristin (Tartu)
UNDP Global Human Development map 2011
Value of
HDI
0.900 and over
0.850–0.899
0.800–0.849
0.750–0.799
0.700–0.749
0.650–0.699
0.600–0.649
0.550–0.599
0.500–0.549
0.450–0.499
0.400–0.449
0.350–0.399
0.300–0.349
under 0.300
Global Human Development Report 2011
• The first five countries with the highest level of HD are Norway, Australia, Netherlands, United States and New Zealand
• According to the 2011 UN rankings Estonia (rank 34), Poland (39), Lithuania (40) and Latvia (43) belong together with Germany (9) and the Nordic countries Sweden (10), Denmark (16), Finland (22) to the first quartile of countries (‘very high level of HD’) among 187 members of UN included in the Report.
• From the EU members only Romania (50) and Bulgaria (55) have hot included in the very high level of HD group. They belong to the second quartile (‘countries with high level of HD’ ) together with Russia (66) and the other former Soviet Union members.
Baltic patterns of human development
Rankings according to components of HDI in the Baltic Sea region (UN HDR 2010)
Red bar- life expectancy, blue – years of schooling, yellow line- GDP per capita
0,970,953 0,951
0,929
0,851
0,887
0,8240,839
0,747
0,8560,878
0,845 0,839
0,878
0,784
0,84
0,805
0,711
0,835 0,828 0,8210,832
0,717 0,722
0,6940,673
0,699
0,5
0,55
0,6
0,65
0,7
0,75
0,8
0,85
0,9
0,95
1
9. R
ootsi
10. S
aksa
maa
16. S
oom
e
19. T
aani
34. E
esti
41. P
oola
44. L
eedu
65. V
enem
aa
Eluea indeks
Hariduse indeks
Rahvamajandusekogutoodanguindeks
Changes in life expectancy 1980-2010: Estonian (blue line) and Latvian (dark red) average LE had increased
during last decade by 4-5 years (UN HDR 2010)
60
65
70
75
80
85
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Eesti
Läti
Leedu
Poola
Venemaa
Soome
Rootsi
Saksamaa
Changes in the average years of schooling 1980-2010: Germany and Estonia had overcome the line 12 years (UN
HDI 2010)
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1980 1990 2000 2005 2010
Eesti
Läti
Leedu
Poola
Venemaa
Soome
Rootsi
Saksamaa
Baltic Countries are in forfront of EU concerning education
• High level of schooling among the adult population• Higher than EU average participation in pre-school and
higher education• Unsolved problems:
– participation of older age groups, workers, unemployed and minorities in life-long learning
– high level of early leavers– educational inequalities – feminization– quality of vocational training and higher education
Similar dynamics of three Baltuc countries in GDP growth (lines) and differences in life satisfaction (bars) 1990-2009.
(Estonia blue, Latvia red, Lithuania green)
Sources: World Bank, Eurostat.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
GN
I per
cap
ita
(PPT
)
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Elug
a ra
hul (
%)
eluga rahul EE eluga rahul LV eluga rahul LT SKT EE SKT LV SKT LT
Difference of net wages between the new EU member states and old democracies in the Baltic
Sea region (EU 15=100%)
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0
Norway
Sweden
Denmark
Germany
Finland
European Union (15countries)
Estonia
Poland
Latvia
Lithuania
Aastase netopalga erinevus valitud riikides (EL-15 = 100), arvutuste aluseks ametlik euro vahetuskurss, 2010
Low level of social expenditures
2000 2004 2008
Eesti
LätiLeeduEL27
01000200030004000500060007000
Annual social expenditures per capita (EUR)
Eesti
Läti
Leedu
EL27
Eesti 623 933 1808
Läti 547 624 1283
Leedu 559 701 1553
EL27 5034 5870 6603
2000 2004 2008
Main factors of Baltic developments
After restoration of their independence Baltic states had to build up from the scratch the whole
legal, financial, economic and political system and all the institutions of social protection
Common features
• Smallness of the countries• Post-Soviet condition of economy• Social trauma in the 90’s• Ethnic heterogeneity• Low level of social mobilization and weak civil
society • Location on the border between EU and Russia
Factors supporting ‘Baltic way’
• External – Conditionalities of EU integration– Support from the Nordic countries, regional
cooperation– Inflow of the foreign investments– Russian challenge
• Internal– Strong will for ‘catching up’– Economic success internalized as realization of
more general national aspirations– Individualism and competitive orientation
Factors inhibiting human development in Baltic societies
• Deficit of human resources• Small scale of economies• Periferal location• Low capacity for cooperation• Non-sufficient innovativeness and low
enterpreneurial spirit• Lack of strategic coordination• Low level of trust in state institutions • Low level of public participation
Social policy is still underdeveloped in all three countries
Lagging behind the most of EU countries, looking at • inequality of incomes • poverty• level of wages• level of social expenditures • low effectiveness of social protection measures
Economic crisis has tested sustainability of the Baltic
developments
• The Baltic states, in particular, which were new nations, remained concerned about their national sovereignty.—They feared the financial crisis could undermine their sovereignty and they stood up for their nations.
• The political economy of crisis differs greatly from that in the ordinary times, and these nations knew how to handle the crisis. Both people and leaders were prepared to do what was necessary (Aslund 2011, p 88)
Social burden of the the crisis
• The burden of the crisis was put on the working population
• Baltic ‘economy of patience’• Flexibility of the labour market:
– Shrinking employment– Shorter working hours– Cutting wages
• Outflow of labour
Fall and rise of international credibility of the Baltic countries 2008-2011.
Allikas: The Economist, 14.07.2011
Subjective side of human development: life satisfaction
The global map of life-satisfaction 2011
Life satisfaction ranks of the Baltic Sea countries :
1.Denmark, 6.Finland, 7.Sweden, 35.Germany, 99. Poland, 139.Estonia, 154. Latvia, 155. Lithuania, 167. Russia
Public opinion (Baltic survey April 2011)
Are you glad or sad looking at the changes in your country during last 20 years? (EMOR 2011)
50
23 2521
63
40
29
13
35
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Eesti Läti Leedu
Rõõmustavad
Kurvastavad
Raske öelda
Satisfaction with economic situation of the own family (%)
Estonia Latvia LithuaniaEconomic situation of the family now Bad 25 40 27
Satisfactory 45 49 48Good 30 11 24
Economic situation of the family 20 years ago Now is better 30 16 17The same 16 11 1120 years ago was better 41 58 46
How you the situation would be after 5 years from now? Better than now 49 34 34
Would you see yourself and your children’s future related to this
country? (%)
Estonia Latvia LithuaniaRather no 8 16 14Difficult to say 32 39 37Certainly yes 61 44 48
Future challenges• How to overcome the gap in human development level
between Baltic and Nordic countries?• How to turn to the new innovative track of economic
development in order to catch up the high income ‘core’ countries?
• How to increase coherence, integration and participation and offer the opportunities for self-realization to all members of society?
• How to raise hapiness and life satisfaction, stop the outflow of young people from our countries and attract back home those who had left?
• Should we try to follow the Nordic countries or rather to develop an original (and attractive) ‘Baltic way of life’ ?
Opportunities
• Use Nordic-Baltic cooperation– in order to boost human development, raise innovativeness, improve
quality of higher and professional education, develop modern infrastructure and sustainable energy system
– for development and effective usage of intellectual resources in order to create the knowledge based economy
– to find new models for sustainable social protection and health care systems
• Improve democratic participation, develop good governance and build more efficient administrative system
• Develop the ‘Nordic- Baltic’ brand of efficient and innovative society on the global scale
Thank you!
Report is available on the website of the Estonian Cooperation Assembly
www.kogu.ee
Recommended