Thayer Vietnam’s Military Diplomacy 2004

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Vietnam’s Military Diplomacy

Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Australian Defence Force Academy

Director, UNSW Defence Studies Forum

October 20, 2004

Presentation to

l'École des hautes études en sciences socialeset le Groupe de recherches sur le Viet Nam

contemporain du Centre d’ études et derecherches internationales, SciencesPo

Paris, October 20, 2004

Overview

1. Theoretical context

2. Background 1986-94

3. Defence diplomacy 1995-04

4. Force Modernization

5. Military Capabilities

6. Conclusion

Theoretical Context

• The Rise of China

• Balancing• Bandwagoning

• Hierarchy

• Regional identity

• Neglect of the military dimension

Background 1986-94

• Strategic Reorientation – withdrawal from Cambodia and Laos

• Massive demobilisaton• Cuts in defence expenditure

• Reform of Military-Owned Enterprises

• Collapse of the Soviet Union

President Clinton in Hanoi

November 1998

Military Diplomacy

• Defence Ministry external relations• High-level exchanges

• Exchange of Defence Attaches• Goodwill visits• Staff College/Institute exchanges• Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)• Defence Cooperation Agreements• Multilateral activities

Other Military Diplomacy

• Part of civilian-led delegations – President, Prime Minister, Foreign Minister

– Senior official (deputy minister) withresponsibility for defence/security matters

• Legislative committees with defenceoversight

• Veterans groups

Military Diplomacy

• Cold War military relations – Laos, Cambodia, Warsaw Pact, Cuba, India,

Indonesia, Albania, Yugoslavia…• In 2004 Ministry of National Defence has

relations with more than sixty countries• 33 Defence Attaches accredited to Vietnam

• 22 Vietnamese Defence Attaches postedabroad

Military Diplomacy

• Goodwill exchanges of delegations – External Relations Department

– Song and Dance Ensemble• Naval warship port calls

– Australia, Canada, China, France, India,Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, New

Zealand, Russia, South Korea, Thailand, UnitedKingdom, United States

USS Vandegrift in Saigon

November

USS Vandegrift in Saigon Port

High-Level Exchanges

• Ministerial level

• Chief of the General Staff

• Political General Department• Logistics Department

• Service Chiefs

• Other Ranking General Officers

• Military Region Commanders• Provincial Military Commanders

Defense Minister Lt. Gen. Pham Van Tra andSecretary of Defense William S. Cohen

Hanoi, March 13, 2000

Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld andMinister of National Defense Senior Gen. Pham Van Tra

The Pentagon, November. 10, 2003

US CINCPAC Admiral Dennis Blair meetsGenerals Vo Nguyen Giap and Pham Van Tra

January 2002 (January 2001 visit

cancelled by Vietnam at last minute)

Military Diplomacy: MOUs

• Annual work plans – exchange of visits, training, strategic dialogue, etc.

Address specific bilateral issues – Border security (land and maritime)

– MIA repatriation; Cam Ranh Bay

• Combined military activities – Medical research

– Search and Rescue

– Joint naval patrols

Defence Industry Contracts

• Russia – Mikoyan

• Refurbish Mig-21s

– Severnoye Design Bureau- Ba Son Shipyard• Fast attack craft missile

– Progress Aviation Association and Raduga TechnologyDevelopment Design Bureau

• Special naval apparatus

– IAPO aircraft manufacturer in Irkutsk • Sukhoi Su-27s

Defence Industry Contracts

• India – Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd.

• Overhaul MiG-21 engines

• Singapore – joint venture Keppel Corp-Ba Son Shipyard

• Israel (under consideration) – Israel Aircraft Industries and Elbit

• MiG-21 refurbishment

Defence Cooperation Agreements

• Treaty of Friendship with Laos (1977) – 2002 extension

• ‘Strategic Partnership’ with Russia (1994) – Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation (1978)

• India Defence Cooperation Agreement (1994) – COIN and jungle warfare

• Australia Defence Cooperation Programme

Multilateral Activities

• ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) - 1994 – Inter-Sessional Group CBMs (1996) – Defence officials (July 1997)

• ASEAN – ASEAN Armies Rifle Meet (14th meeting 2004) – Association of War Veterans of ASEAN (10th meeting

2003) – ASEAN armies football and volleyball tournament – Chiefs of Army Multilateral Meeting (5th meeting 2004) – ASEAN Air Force Commanders (1st meeting 2004)

Multilateral Activities

• Chemical Weapons Regional Initiative (1992)• Western Pacific Naval Symposum Workshop (1995)• Asia-Pacific Security Dialogue (Thailand 1996)• Forum for Defence Authorities in the Asia-Pacific

Region (Tokyo 1996)• Singapore Naval Conference (May 1997)• Cobra Gold Exercise (observer 2003)

• Asia Pacific Chiefs of Defence Meeting (2003)• Shangri-la Process (began 2002)

Modernisation

• Spare parts acquisition

• Storage, repair and maintenance

• Refurbishment• Upgrade

• Co-production/joint ventures

• Technical training• New capabilities aquisition

Defence Expenditure as a Percentage of

Total Government Expenditure

Government Defence Expenditure

Military Capability

• Air Capabilities – Air Defence - MiG-21, SA-2/3 SAMs

• AA-2/8/10 air to air missiles – Long Range Strike - Su-27, SCUD B

– Close Air Support - 53 Su-22M series

– Transport - An-2, An-26, Yak-40

124 MiG-21s Fishbed

Su-27 Flanker

Force Modernisation

Su-30 Fulcrum

12 on order12 Su-27 Flanker

upgrades in progress

Military Capability

• Maritime Capabilities – Maritime Patrol - 48 assorted vessels

– Anti-Surface Warfare - 13 ships with SSMs – Maritime Land Strike - no real capability

– Anti-Submarine Warfare - no real capability – Maritime Air Defence - no ability to coordinate

– Amphibious Lodgment/Marine Forces – Mine Warfare - 10 assorted vessels

Naval Force Modernisation

Tarantul class missile boats

Force Modernisation

Styx Missile

Sunburn

missile

Military Capability

• Land Capabilities – Infantry Forces - 58 Inf Divisions

– Combined Arms Ground Forces• 3 Mech Inf and 10 Armoured Div, 10 Arty Bde,

– Special Forces – Land Force C3I (Command, Control,

Communications and Intelligence) – Reserves

T-54 Main Battle Tank [850 T-54/55 and 350 Chinese Type-59 Main Battle Tanks]

Military Capability

• Other Capabilities – Ballistic missiles

– Chemical and Biological• suspected Saren and mustard gas (1991)

– Information or Knowledge Warfare• SIGINT

– Nuclear (none)

Scud SRBM

Force Modernisation

Scud B/C ballistic missiles

est. <50 Scud B/C

Sold by

North Korea

Deterrence

capability inSouth

China Sea

Conclusion

• Military as domestic political actor – Changing civil-military relations

• Priority on naval and air modernisation – South China Sea contingencies

• Relations with Major Powers – Neither balancing, bandwagoning or hierarchy

– Combination of all of the above• Military diplomacy and national identity

Discussion

Questions and Answers

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