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UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT
MULTI-YEAR EXPERT MEETING ON COMMODITIES AND DEVELOPMENT
9-10 April 2014
Technology options to flexibly cope with stochastic renewable resources including
the role of biofuels or synthetic fuels
by
Prof Daniel Favrat Ecole polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)
Energy Center and
Member of WFEO Executive and Energy Committees ( World Federation of Engineering Organizations)
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of
UNCTAD.
Technology options to flexibly cope with stochastic renewable resources including
the role of biofuels or synthetic fuels
Prof Daniel Favrat
Ecole polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) Energy Center and member of WFEO Executive and Energy Committees ( World Federation of Engineering Organizations) 1 1
Major trends Worldwide
2
400 800 1200 1600 2000 year
0
1000
5000
7000
[Millio
ns]
population
0.
10
20
30
en
erg
ie [
Gte
p]
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
yearly primary energy consumption
En
erg
y
450ppm
230
250
270
290
310
330
350
CO
2 [
pp
m]
mean CO2 concentration in atmosphere
400ppm (2013)
Global environment is a major concern
Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014
We need innovation towards less
degradation and lower emissions • Physics: conservation of mass and energy
• The confusion about the term energy:
• from the Greek word , « containing work»
• But: driving forces result from unbalances (of exergy
levels, of concentration in materials and fluids,....)
• Nature is a story of degradation: By degrading high
“exergy” value from the Sun, Earth is able to generate
vegetation and ultimately fuels and food for animals and
humans
• Degradation is part of life..... But
3
would be sustainable if the tremendous
potential of the Sun-Earth-Space
unbalance would be used properly to:
• satisfy energy services
• recycle materials and wastes
• clean or dessalinate water , .....
Hence efficient use of commodities and
renewable Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014
Degradation is part of life ...But
4
The world energy demand until 2035 IEA current policies
IEA Outlook 2010
A rather modest target !
Renewable 13%
Renewable 14.5%
Non linear scale Worl
d e
nerg
y d
em
an
d [
Mto
e]
5
Share of electricity generation by source (New Policy Scenario)
WEO2012© OECD/IEA 6
But significant growth of renewable electricity everywhere
Exploiting renewable: the daily and seasonal variations
• Solar: daily cycles + cloud/clear hours • Wind: stochastic with dead periods (> a week) • Hydro run of river: seasonal
• Geothermal: relatively constant
• Storage is the key
• The most flexible: • hydro accumulation • fuel (wood, wastes, biofuels, H2 or fossil)
conversion units 7
Storage scales and technologies • For hourly and daily fluctuations: • Hydro pump storage whenever possible even
envisaged at small scale (16 kV level) • Compressed air (including compressed compressed
and hydro) • Batteries (ex: Li-Titanate with or without supercaps)
• For seasonal variations: • Hydro dams but often far from sufficient • Advanced conversion from fuels (either fossil, biofuels
or synthetic fuels (power to gas or power to liquid fuels
• Engines with ORC waste heat conversion, • Fuel cells (SOFC) or hybrid SOFC-GT with CO2
separation 8
Statement and medium term vision
• Fossil fuels are still the cheapest and less
cumbersome way to store energy
• Liquid and gaseous fossil fuels should be
essentially used to backup renewable
energies, in particular the stochastic ones
(less and less used for base load production)
• In a longer term replaced by synthetic fuels
9
Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014 http://energycenter.epfl.ch
SYNTHETIC HYDROCARBONS
ELECTROLYSIS
CO2
O2
O2
SUN
ENERGY
ENERGY
n CO2 + (3n+1) H2 CH3-(CH2)n-2- CH3 + 2n H2O
H2O
-(CH2)n-
COMBUSTION
H2
CO2
H2O
H2O
H2O H2 + ½O2
SYNTHESIS
H2 O2
H2O
OH-
e-
e-
Electrolyte
KOH/H2O
H OH-
H2
H2OH2O
O2
O2
H2O
Slide from Prof Züttel
10
Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014 http://energycenter.epfl.ch
Renewable fuel refinery based on H2 CO2 and N2
11 Slide from Prof Züttel
Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014 http://energycenter.epfl.ch
Swiss seasonal variations highlighted by Swiss energyscope.ch , a platform for energy scenarios
12
The example of Switzerland: Future renewable electricity
Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014 http://energycenter.epfl.ch
Renewable technologies have significant requirements for: - materials - embedded energy
14
Trend of the World production (in metric tons of 14 minerals and metals)
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0
500 000 000
1 000 000 000
1 500 000 000
2 000 000 000
2 500 000 000
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07
World production (in metric tons) of 14 minerals and metals essential to the world economy, from 1919 to 2007
(Al, Cu, Pb, Zn, Fe, Cr, Phosphate rock, K20, Pt Group Metals, Co, Au, Mn, Ni, Baryte)Data source: USGS Data series 140 - http://minerals.usgs.g
The
BRIC
take-off
The
BRIC
take-off
In about 90 years the world productionof the listed commodities was multiplied by
20! with a strong acceleration since 2002,
while the world population grew only by a factor of
3.6!.
• In 90 years:
• Population growth by 3.6
• Production of minerals &metals by 20
(Al,Cu,Pb,Zn,Fe,Cr,…..)
From Varet (BRGM) and USGS Data Series 140
1 500 000 000
2 000 000 000
http://www.divex.ca/documents/acfaspresentations2013/Varet13
%20economie%20mat%20premieres%20ACFAS.pdf
Diversification of the economy towards other (“small”) metals
16
Une table de Mendeleïev de plus en plus sollicitée:
diversification de l’ économie vers les « petits métaux »
Source: Varet BRGM
Evolution of the number of “small” metals
Years 1980s: 10
Years 1990s: 15
Years 2000s: 60
http://www.divex.ca/documents/acfaspresentations2013/Varet13
%20economie%20mat%20premieres%20ACFAS.pdf
Diversification of the economy towards other (“small”) metals
Innovation towards sustainability
From a non sustainable abundance to: • An energy and materials moderated approach (eco
efficient energy and materials use, increased use of renewable, proper waste management including for CO2 and nuclear wastes)
Need for innovation • with novel indicators (both technical and economical) • Novel design and planning methods ( holistic, LCA,
etc.) • Integrated systems with advanced technologies
17 Let us manage efficiently our commodities
Expert meeting on commodities Favrat 2014 http://energycenter.epfl.ch
Thank you for your
attention !
18
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