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TCAC NEW DELHI –METHODS AND PROCEDURES USED FOR PREDICTION

DR RAJENDRA KUMAR JENAMANI

Director In-ChargeMeteorological Watch Office (MWO)

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENTNew ATS Building (Room No.-211, 2nd Floor),

Indira Gandhi International (IGI) Airport, New Delhi-110037

E-MAIL ID-rjenamani1@yahoo.co.in/ rjenamani@hotmail.com

INTRODUCTION

OBSERVING SYSTEMS AND TRACKING OVER SEA FROM INSAT

PREDICTION TECHNIQUES

COMMUNICATIONS

ISSUE OF TCAC ADVISORIES AS PER ICAO NORMS

RECENT DEVELOPMENT

CONCLUSIONS

GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DISTRIBUTION

11

18

33

5.5

1.5

11

20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

NW A

TLANTI

CNE

PACIF

ICNW

PACIF

IC

BAYARABIA

N SEA

SIOSW

PACIF

IC

AREA

% O

F G

LOB

AL

FREQ

UEN

CY

ICAO TCACsTCAC Area of Responsibility Tropical Cyclone

Season• DARWIN - South-East Indian November-April

Ocean• HONOLULU - Central Pacific May - November• MIAMI - Eastern Pacific May – November

• NADI - Southern Pacific November - April

• NEW DELHI- 1) Bay of Bengal April - June2) Arabian Sea October - December

• TOKYO - Western Pacific January - December(including South China Sea)

Brief HistoryBrief HistoryICAO, Met Div., Montreal, Canada, Meet, 09ICAO, Met Div., Montreal, Canada, Meet, 09--26 Sept., 2002 recommended 26 Sept., 2002 recommended TCAsTCAs for for International Civil Aviation in specified International Civil Aviation in specified format.format.IMD agreed to recommendation on 12IMD agreed to recommendation on 12--0808--03.03.IMD HQ asked RSMC, CWD located at the HQ IMD HQ asked RSMC, CWD located at the HQ to take the additional work of TCAC to take the additional work of TCAC w.e.fw.e.f. . 2525--0808--03 for ensuing cyclone season.03 for ensuing cyclone season.It also issued order to all It also issued order to all RMCRMC’’ss, , MWOMWO’’ss and and DDGM(WF) regarding issuance of TCA for DDGM(WF) regarding issuance of TCA for ICAOICAO

Completing seven yearsCompleting seven years

CLASSIFICATION OF CYCLONE IN NIO

Less than 17 knots ( < 31 kmph)

17 to 27 knots ( 31 to 49 kmph)

28 to 33 knots ( 50 to 61 kmph)

34 to 47 knots ( 62 to 88 kmph)

48 to 63 knots ( 89 to 118 kmph)

64 to 119 knots ( 119 to 221 kmph)

120 knots and above ( 222 kmph and above)

1. Low Pressure Area

2. Depression

3. Deep Depression

4. Cyclonic Storm

5. Severe Cyclonic Storm

6. Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

7. Super Cyclonic Storm

Associated wind speed in the CirculationTypes of Disturbances

CYCLONIC STORMS OVER BAY AND ARABIAN SEA

6

14

21

51

3841

30

39

79

98

41

20 0

6

19 19

3 3

7

2629

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12MONTHS

FREQ

UEN

CY

Series1Series2

Figure 4.5 11-Years running means of Annual frequency of disturbances with the minimum intensity of Depressions and above formed over the Indian region (1891-

2003)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1891 95 99 3 7 11 15 19 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 59 63 67 71 75

1979 83 87 91 95 99

2003

Years

Ann

ual F

requ

ency

Cyclonic Storms and aboveDepressions and above

Figure 4.6 11-Years running means of frequency of disturbances with the intensity of depressions and above formed in the month of May, October & November

(1891-2003)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.518

91 96 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 9620

01

Years

Freq

uenc

y

May October November

Analyzing the past damages and inventorying the population and

property at risk

INDIA-55-74%

B’DESH-10-21%(HIGHEST FOR SEVERE CS)

S’LANKA-2-4%M’MAR-3-13%

% SHARES OF GLOBAL FREQUENCY IN THE LITTORAL COUNTRIES OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

ONLY 3.4 % CROSSED INDIA AND 0.9 CROSSED BANGALADESH WHILE IT CAUSED 53% AND 23 % OF

HUMAN DEATHS RESPECTIVELY (TOTAL 76%)

3.4

0.9

0.5

0.2

0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

INDIA BGDSH MYNAMAR SRILANKA IN THE SEACOUNTRY

%

FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO DISASTROUS SURGES IN BANGLADESH

• SHALLOW COASTAL WATER• CONVERGENCE OF THE BAY• LOW AND FLAT TOPOGRAPHY• HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES• THICKLY POPULATED LOW LYING ISLNADS• FAVOURABLE CYCLONE TRACKS• CORIOLIS EFFECTS• INNUMERABLE NUMBER OF INLETS

INCLUDING WORLD LARGEST RIVER SYSTEMS(GANGA-BRAHMAPUTRA-MEGHNA

• SOCIO-ECONMIC FACTOR

20982404.5 ( Cl. No. )15 Nov 1998 ( VSCS )

3-Feb20-Aug17974404.56 Nov 1996( SCSCHW )

3.5202021912-920696.59 May 1990 ( SCSCHW )

3.52020-Oct8930-942656.58 Nov 1989 ( SCSCHW )

12020996949614 Nov 1984 ( SCSCHW )

3.5202183657612 May 1979 ( SCSCHW )

56026941-91964719 Nov 1977 ( SCSCHW )

surge ( m )(km)(km)(m/s)(hPa)(m/s) No.Date( category)

StormRMREye diameterStrengthMSLPMSSWMax TCyclone Landfall

Meteorological Parameters of Major Cyclones hitting Andhra PradeshMOST SEVERE RECENTLY-1977 AP & 1999 SUPER CYCLONE

OBSERVING AND TRACKING SYSTEMS OVER SEA

FROM INSAT/RADAR/BUOYS

IMD’S OBSERVING NETWORK

SURFACE OBSERVATORIES 556

HWSRs 20

UPPER AIR OBSERVATORIES 110

S-BAND CONVENTIONAL RADARS 8

DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS 4

INSAT-2E/METSAT/NOAA/METEOSAT SATELLITES

SHIPS OF INDIAN VOLUNTARY OBSERVING FLEET 207

BUOYS 12

ActiveMonitoring cyclones & monsoonCMV WindsOLRRainfall EstimationMesoscale featuresFlood/intense precipitation advisorySnow detection

VHRR(VIS,IR,WV)

April 2003INSAT-3A

ActiveMonitoring cyclones & monsoonCMV WindsOLRRainfall Estimation

Very High Resolution Radiometer(VHRR)Bands:0.55-0.75µm10.5-12.5µmWV Band:5-7.1µm

12th Sept., 2002Kalpana-1

Active/Inactive

Major ApplicationsMet Payload with Wavelength Bands

Lunch date Satellite

COMMUNICATIONS

AMSS

DELHI

AMSS MUMBAI

AMSS KOLKATA

AMSS CHENNEI

With 4 MWOs

AMSS NAGPUR

AMSS GAUHATI

TCAC-ICAO

ASI/PAC

RODBs headers

BANGKOK

-BTBBYPYX

BRISBANE-YBBYPYX

NADI-NFZZRFXX

SNGAPORE-WSZZYPYM

TOKYO-RJAAYPYX

PREDICTION TECHNIQUES

•SYNOPTIC•CLIPER•NWP•ISALLOBARIC FIELD

FORECASTING BY NWP TECHNIQUES

Limited Area Model

Quasi-Lagrangian Model

ISSUE OF WARNING/ADVISORIES

ISSUE OF GENERAL WARNINGS AND

SYSTEMS

NATIONALACWCs (KOLKATA, MUMBAI & CHENNAI)

CWCs (BHUBANESWAR, VISAC & AHMEDABAD)

NATIONAL CO-ORDINATION (PUNE WEATHER CENTRAL & CWD(NHAC) NEW DELHI)

INTERANTIONALRSMC/TCAC -TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI

ISSUE OF TCAC ADVISORIES AS PER ICAO NORMS

• 6-hourly Advisories based on 00, 06-------with time of issue HH+3 hours for all system with wind speed> 34 kts

• P-1---Position, direction of movement, speed and central pressure

• P-2--Must Include 12, 18, 24 hourly forecast position and maximum wind.

• SENT TO MWOS/ALL TCAC/ RODB(REGIONAL OPMET DATA BANK)

• TAKE PART IN ANNUAL ASIA/PAC SIGMET TEST 15 JAN 2007(JUST AN E-MAIL FROM LB SHAH, REGEIONAL DIR, ASIA/PAC)

TCA FORMAT• DTG YYYYMMDT / TTTT Z• TCAC NEW DELHI• TC BOB / ARB 01• NR 01, 02……• PSN N LaLalala / E LoLoLo lolo• MOV DDD / FF Kt• C hPa• Max. Wind Mw Mw Mw Kt

• FCST = PSN +12hrs N LaLalala / E LoLoLo lolo• Max. Wind +12hrs Mw Mw Mw Kt• FCST = PSN +18hrs• Max. Wind +18hrs• FCST = PSN +24hrs• Max. Wind +24hrs

NEXT MESSAGE YYYYMMDD / TTTT Z / NO MSG EXP

TCAC ADVISORY REAL TIME BULLETIN AS PER ICAO(EVERY 6

HOURS)DTG: 20031213/1200ZTCAC: NEW DELHITC: AGNINR: 01

PSN: N 0930 /E 08730MOV: NNW 04 KTC: 998 HPAMax Wind: 40 KT

FCST PSN +12hrs: 140000 N1030 / E 08630Max. Wind +12hrs: 45 KTFCST PSN +18hrs: 140600 N1100 / E 08600Max. Wind + 18 hrs: 50 KTFCST PSN + 24hrs: 141200 N1130/ E 08530Max Wind +24hrs: 55 KTNEXT MSG: 200031213/1800 Z

BRIEF OUTLINE ON RECENT ADVISORIES

• AKASH • GONU

IMDIMD-- Adding New Adding New Technology for further Technology for further

Improving Cyclone Improving Cyclone Monitoring/FORECASTING Monitoring/FORECASTING Observational NetworkObservational Network–– New Satellite based Automatic Weather Surface StationsNew Satellite based Automatic Weather Surface Stations–– Existing SExisting S--band Cyclone Detection Radars to be band Cyclone Detection Radars to be

replaced with Doppler mode radarsreplaced with Doppler mode radars–– Strengthening of RS/RW Strengthening of RS/RW

Weather ForecastingWeather Forecasting–– IMD plans to procure a state of the art computing IMD plans to procure a state of the art computing

systemsystem–– Implementation of High resolution forecast models Implementation of High resolution forecast models

* THANKS *