SUNRISE FROM THE WEST · Most of the Retirements are Fossil Energy Fossil fuels = 92% of Retired US...

David HochschildChair

California Energy Commission

SUNRISE FROM THE WEST:SB 100 Implementation

Nearly 30% of Americans Live in a Community that is Going to 100% Clean Energy

2

World’s 5 Largest Companies Have Committed to 100% Renewable Energy

3

Most of the New Generation Added to the Grid is Renewable Energy

Renewables = 65% of New US Electric Generation Capacity

4

Renewables

Fossil Fuels

11,298 MW

5,974 MW

Source: FERC Energy Infrastructure Update, January-December 2015

Most of the Retirements are Fossil Energy Fossil fuels = 92% of Retired US Electric Generation Capacity in 2016*

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Fossil-7,382MW,

92%

Nuclear, Hydro-

588MW, 8%

Renewable-28MW, 0%

Source: EIA Electric Power Monthly, November 29, 2016. MW represent summer capacity.

*Data represents January 1, 2016 to

November 29, 2016

6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ge

ne

rati

on

(TW

h)

Year

US Solar PV Generation

AEO 2012

Actual

Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2004-2017, EIA Electric Power Monthly July 25, 2017

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Federal Energy Subsidies

PRODUCTION TAX

CREDIT (PTC)

INVESTMENT TAX

CREDIT (ITC)

OIL DEPLETION

ALLOWANCE (ODA)

1926: OIL DEPLETION ALLOWANCE ENACTED

2006: INVESTMENT TAX CREDIT ENACTED

ONGOING

1992: PRODUCTION TAX CREDIT ENACTED

SET TO EXPIRE 2022

SET TO EXPIRE 2020

*PTC Expired 6 times and Extended 7 times

California Moves to 100% Clean Energy by 2045

TODAY

34%2030

60%2045

100%

Source: Graphics based on data from the American Council On Renewable Energy (ACORE)Renewable Energy in the 50 States (2013/2014 Editions)http://www.acore.org/publications/50states/ 9

(MW capacity)

California Leads the US in Renewables Installed. What lessons have been learned?

California’s GDP is growing faster than the Nation’s

10Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, California Department of Finance, Real GDP by state (millions of chained 2009 dollars)

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CA46% Increase

Rest of U.S.35% Increase

Perc

ent

Ch

ange

Sin

ce 2

00

0

California Unemployment Falls to 4%

11

Source: “Unemployment Rate and Labor Force Data Table,” State of California Employment Development

Department, Jan 22, 2018. http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/data/unemployment-and-labor-force.html

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

Un

em

plo

yme

nt

(se

aso

nal

ly a

dju

ste

d)

Date

California Advancing Energy Efficiency

Savings in Industrial Sector

Source: EIA, SEDS database (2017)

Savings in Residential Sector

Source: EIA, SEDS database (2017)

Savings in Commercial Sector

Source: EIA, SEDS database (2017)

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

Per

Cap

ita

Elec

tric

ity

Use

(In

dex

ed t

o 1

97

5)

Source: EIA, SEDS database (2017)

California Advancing Energy Efficiency

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The Falling Cost of Clean Energy Technologies

Source: DOE Report, Revolution Now, The Future Arrives for Five Clean Energy Technologies, 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f C

ost

Year

Indexed Cost Reductions Since 2008

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2001 2002 2006 2008 2011 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

SMALL HYDRO

GEOTHERMAL

BIOMASS

WIND

SOLAR

California Making Rapid Progress on Renewable Energy

15Source: California Energy Commission, Tracking Progress Report

The World’s Largest Wind Project

Alta Wind Energy Center 1550 MWKern County, CA

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Geysers Geothermal Power Plant955 MWLake County, CA

The World’s Largest Geothermal Power Plant

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The World’s Largest Thin Film Solar PV Project

Desert Sunlight Solar Project550 MWRiverside County, CA

The World’s Largest Solar Thermal Power Plant (Tower)

Ivanpah Solar Thermal Project393 MWSan Bernardino County, CA

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The World’s Largest Solar Thermal Power Plant (Trough)

Solar Energy Generating System (SEGS)354 MWSan Bernardino County, CA

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World’s Largest Solar RooftopApple HQCupertino, CA17MW

World’s 2nd Largest Lithium-Ion Battery Storage Project

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Escondido Storage Project120 MWhSan Diego, CA

California Leads the Nation in Biomass Energy Generation

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Honey Lake Biomass Plant Lassen County, CA

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Offshore Wind: CA’s New Renewable Resource?

Rhode Island’s 30MW Deepwater Wind Project is the first offshore wind project completed in the US.

Largest Manufacturing Plant in CA Produces Electric Vehicles

Tesla employs 45,000 people

Tesla FactoryFremont, CA

627,000 ELECTRIC VEHICLES

IN CALIFORNIATODAY

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More Californians Work in the Solar Industry Than for All Utilities Combined

Sources:

Solar Foundation, 2017 Solar Jobs Census

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Form 10-K, 2014http://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Solar Jobs IOU/POU Jobs

SDG&E PG&E SCE POU

56,800

86,400

2019: CA Reaches 1 M Solar roofs2020: Solar Required for all New Homes

Zero Energy CommunityRocklin, CA

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Electrification is Rapidly Expanding

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Stanford University Converts Space and Water Heating from

Natural Gas to Electricity

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Reduces water use and GHG emissions by 2/3and annual energy bills by 1/3

Now Selling: The All-Electric Home

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CityVentures all-electric homesBellflower, CA

High Speed Rail is Coming to California and it will be 100% Powered by

Renewables…

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FOSSIL FUEL DECLINE: ONLY ONE OIL COMPANY REMAINS IN THE TOP TEN LIST COMPANIES….

Source: Forbes Fortune 500 list, top ten companies by revenue

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David HochschildCalifornia Energy Commission

David.hochschild@energy.ca.gov

Thank you