STRATEGIC CAMPAIGN PLANNING & IMPLEMENTATION Adapted from Strategic Campaign Planning &...

STRATEGIC CAMPAIGN PLANNING &

IMPLEMENTATION

Adapted from Strategic Campaign Planning & Implementation. Assemblyman Joseph D. Morelle, Chair; Monroe

County Democratic Committee. April 2008

Political Campaigns The Art of communicating

effectively (persuasively) and efficiently with a given electorate in order to get enough of them to act in such a way (register, turn out, vote for, vote against, etc.) as to produce a victory for a question or candidate.

Campaigns Are Lost Because…….of a

Failure to Communicate!

Campaign Plan:

the Rational Frameworkvs.

the W.A.G.

The Big Six

1. What are we going to do?2. Why are we doing it?3. When are we going to do it?4. Where are we going to do it?5. Who’s going to do it?6. How much does it cost?

Develop Your StrategyHow you will win the election?Define Your Goals1. Persuading undecided2. Keep support you have3. Turnout your support4. Disregard those who are not with

you

Identify Your Message Delivery System (Tactics)

1.The candidate2.Other people3.Mail 4.Phones5.Print6.Display7.Broadcast

Manage Scarce Campaign Resources

1.Time2.Money3.People

Who’s out there? - Demographics

What’s their politics? - Targeting

What do they care about? - Polling

Who are the candidates? - Gold & Skeletons

What’s the message? - Theme

Demographics: Know Your Audience – Who’s out there?

- Polling- Voter Files- Census Data- Marketing Reports- Centers of Influence- Disciplined Observation

Targeting - Helps to…….1.Determine Tendencies2.Answer the question “where” to:

o Arrange candidate appearanceso Place Lawn Signso Send Mailo Canvasso GOTV [get out the vote]

3. Directs scarce resources to target groups where there is the greatest potential for success:o Gender o Ageo Voting Frequencyo Registrationo Other

Targeting• Targeting Task #1 – Determine Votes Needed

to WinoUsing like years, determine projected turnoutoMultiply current registration by projected turnout

percentageoDivide by 2 and add 1 = Votes Needed to Win

Example:Total Registered Voters in District: 10,000 x Average

Turnout: 53% = 5,300; 5,300 2 = 2,650 (+1) = 2,651 Votes Needed to win

Targeting•Targeting Task #2 – Find the

Persuadable Voters

Subgroups within the Target:

oBlanks/IndependentsoRepublican FemalesoRepublican Seniors (over 65)

TargetingTargeting Task #3 – Develop the Target

Group (Getting to 2,651)

Total Enrollment: Reps 5,000 Dems 4,000 Blanks 1,000

Likely Dem Turnout multiplied by projected vote % = # of voters: 2,120 x 85% = 1,802

Likely Rep & Blank Turnout in top 15 persuadable EDs: 2,485 x 35% = 869

1,802 + 869 = 2,671

Issues & Attitudes - What do they care about?

o Sources1. News Stories2. Letters to the Editor3. Editorials4. Media “polls”

o Elected Officials1. Communications2. Opinions

o Validated Observations1. Candidate conversations with voters2. Campaign conversations - e.g. “The big issue is taxes”

Confirmations:o Attendance at budget hearingo School budget referendao Tax Grievances

Candidate & Opposition Research

Strengths & Weaknesses

The Single Most Important Ingredient – Accuracy

o Applies to you and your opponent

1. Unpopular votes and acts

2. Popular votes and acts

3. Hypocritical Voters

Candidate & Opposition ResearchStrengths & Weaknesses

o Effective / Ineffective Performance1. Attendance2. Promised vs. Delivered3. “Gots” List – what has been gotten by candidate?

o Personal conduct that relates to public performance

1. Tax payments2. Voting History3. Business Practices

What Is The Message?Message = Theme

o Message (Theme)o Strategy (Goals)o Tacticso PlanWhat Is The Theme?1. Central Idea around which all communication

revolves2. The test you want voters to apply to the election3. The rationale for your candidacy – why they should

vote for you in this election4. Implies why they should not vote for your opponent

Things That Are Not a Message or Themeo Buzzwordso Slogans

“Time For a Change”“Are You Ready for Nicoletti”“Keep on Zimmering”

o Issues- Jobs / Economy- Education- Health Care- Taxes- Crime

Memorable [& not so memorable] Themes

Are you better off than you were four years ago? – Ronald Reagan

Mario Cuomo, Too Liberal Too Long – George Pataki

Putting People First – Bill Clinton

Let America Be America Again – John Kerry

Her only special interest is you – Gail Schaffer

We can do better – JFK

Characteristics of a Good Theme1.Clear – Don’t make the voter think about

what you really mean2.Concise – Should be expressed in a single

sentence, or a short paragraph3.Compelling – It should speak to the values

and concerns of the voters4.Contrasting – It should lay out the differences

between you and your opponent5.Credible – It must be believable; you need to

demonstrate the theme

Develop Your Campaign MessageStep-by-Step

Demographic profile of your constituency

Attitude profile of the voters

Coalition Profile (Target Group)

Make a list of you and your opponent’s strengths and challenges as candidates

Clinton ’96 Dole ’96Strengths Strengths

•Youth•Compassionate/Caring•White House Experience•Economic Improvement•Certain Issues•Persuasive

•Legislative Skills•Governmental Experience•Integrity•Certain Issues•Military Heroism

Challenges Challenges•Slick, corner cutter, not believable•Lack of moral compass•Certain Issues•Inconsistent, lack of core belief•Lack of military experience

•Age•Mean image•Insider•Certain Issues•Legislative compromiser/Flip flops on issues/inconsistent record

Example

Developing Your Campaign Message

Step-by-StepDraw lines of distinction between

candidates “Mirror Opposite” strengths and challenges and “Stand

Alone” strengths and challenges

Craft Message

Test Message: Questions to Ask

Does Your Message Answer the Following Questions…

Why does your candidate want the job, and what will (s)he do with it?

Why is your candidate better than the opposition for the job?

What issues support the need for your candidate’s election?

Test the Message

1. Appeal to the targeted groups2. Full advantage to mirror opposites3. Unique message? Too generic? Is it big

enough, loud enough, and obvious enough?

4. Is your candidate a credible messenger for the message?

5. Does it help to inoculate your weaknesses?

Summary

1. The theme pervades every part of your plan.2. It evolves from the broad pictures you have

developed of your candidate, the voting public, and your opposition.

3. It should demonstrate your candidate’s strengths contrasted with your opponent's weaknesses.

4. It should speak to the values of your voters.5. It is the rationale for your campaign.

One Last Word on Message…

Stay on message:if it’s not on message,

it’s off!

Strategy “Strategy is the art of making use of time and space.”

- Napoleon Bonaparte

Strategy1.Themes answer the question: Why are

you running?2.Strategy answers the question: How will

you win? Broad strokes defining what your

candidate needs to do in order to win the campaign. Using a combination of electoral results, turnout, and polling data, try to determine those actions that will increase votes for your candidate.

• Each of these actions is a “goal” • Collectively these goals are your strategy.

Strategy Points Used Most Often In Winning Campaigns

1.Targeting the base vote plus a given percentage of other “persuadable” voters

2.Creating a clear contrast between you and your opponent

3.Building a diverse coalition of voters into a single voting block

4.Overwhelming the opposition with campaign activities

5.Creating a negative image of your opponent6.Creating a positive image of your candidate7.Building an organization capable of delivering a

significant number of votes8.Dividing voters along ideological lines

Tactics“Good tactics can save even the worst strategy. Bad tactics will destroy even the best strategy.”

- General George S. Patton

TacticsMail Plan Phone PlanWalk PlanEarned/Paid Media

Message Vehicles In Low Visibility Campaigns1. In Person:

oThe CandidateoThe candidate’s spouse, adult children, parents, siblingsoVolunteersoSurrogates

2. On the Phone:oThe candidateoThe candidate’s spouse, adult children, parents, siblingsoVolunteersoSurrogates

3. Direct Mail4. Display Advertising

Delivering the Message

1. Follow the plan

2. Work from election day backwardso Generally focus on persuadables (swing districts)

and blank’s closest to election day

o Seniors and Democrats early on

3. Stay on message

4. Make it easy on the voter

Candidate ActivityDoor-to-Door: Maximize the Impact

Candidate CoffeesForums & Debates

Direct Mail

1. Follow the Plan

2. Work from Election Day backwards Clearly state Dominate Illustrate Validate

Direct Mail3. Direct the mailing to the target group

or segments within the target group.

4. Types of Mail: Target Group Mail Segments of the Target Group Friend to Friend Interest Group Mail (seniors, vets,

etc.)

Sample Direct Mail Plan MatrixPiece Target Topic Count

(HH’s)Cost Write

DatePrint Date Mail

Date Bio District

Wide (D, R, I, B, WF, C)

Introduction 4,883 $2002.03 10/4 10/7 10/10

Seniors All 65+ Healthcare / Quality of Life

1,147 $470.27 10/12 10/15 10/16

Prime Democrats

DemocratsDemocratic Values

2,165 $887.65 10/20 10/23 10/24

Education Semi-Prime Dems, Republican Women

Children / Education

2, 421 $992.61 10/23 10/26 10/28

Jobs Ds, Bs, Is, WFs

Economic Development

2,739 $1122.99 10/28 10/31 11/1

Total

$5475.55

Direct Mail Tips1.Research tells us the average American

receives more than 1,000 messages a day.2.Current research tells us that new messages

take up to seven repetitions to break through the clutter.

3.A message is only conveyed if it is read and you’re competing with lots of other messages so design is important

4.Communications research tells us 4 out of 5 readers don’t go beyond photo captions and headlines

Direct Mail Tips

5. Five photos every candidate should have: Portrait / headshot Family Community Service People / Constituents Message

Direct Mail Tips

6. Get the message in the headline

7. Keep it brief

8. Avoid overstating

9. Fight boredom

10. Seed the mailing list

Mail Sample 1

Mail Sample 2

Display Advertising For Local Low Visibility Campaigns

JUST LAWN SIGNS!!!No Billboards

No Bumper StripsNo ShirtsNo Pens

No Note Pads

The Phone Canvass

Voter Identification & GOTV

1. Call the target group

2. Start the night the first direct mail piece arrives

3. Determine the number of calling hours needed to sweep target

HH’s x 65% = Calling Hours NeededAverage 15 Calls Per Hr

3070 HH’s x 65% = 133 HrsAverage 15 Calls Per Hr

Divided by 2 Hrs

133 = 67 2

Divided by the number of days until election eve

67 = 5.5 12

The Phone Canvass1. Mark the sheets simply yes, no, or

undecided2. Follow-up options for undecided

voters Note from the volunteer Late mailing to all undecided voters

3. Start with Democrats4. Finish with Republicans and Blanks

GOTV1. Robo Calls2. Election Eve lit drop3. Call only ID’d favorable voters4. Blind pull unidentified Dems

only if canvass produces near 70% favorable rates

5. Coordinating with Democratic Poll Inspectors

Managing Campaign Resources1. Time

Scarcest resourceWork backwardsMatch campaign communications with voter’s

attention and decision making

2. Money - BudgetingDevelop from the planCost out all campaign activities Ideal vs. AlternativeDevelop fundraising plan and schedule to match

3. PeopleDevelop from the planEstimate how many “volunteer” hours needed for

each campaign activityDevelop plan for recruiting and managing people

When Do Voters Start Paying Attention?

When Do They Decide Who They Will Vote For?

When Do Voters Decide?1.Pay attention / decide early

Seniors More informed voters More partisan & straight ticket voters

2.Pay attention / decide late Voters under age 35, college students Less-informed voters Blanks, ticket splitters Absentees

Election Day"There is only one decisive victory: the last." - Karl von Clausewitz, On War…