Storm-based Warnings Storm-based Warnings Changes to NWS Warnings for the Digital Age NWA...

Storm-based WarningsStorm-based Warnings

Storm-based WarningsChanges to NWS Warnings

for the Digital Age

Storm-based WarningsChanges to NWS Warnings

for the Digital Age

NWA Broadcaster’s Workshop October 15, 2006

John FerreeOffice of Climate, Water, and Weather Services

NOAA’s National Weather Service

NWA Broadcaster’s Workshop October 15, 2006

John FerreeOffice of Climate, Water, and Weather Services

NOAA’s National Weather Service

Overview of This PresentationOverview of This Presentation

• Benefits of Storm-based Warnings

• Plans for Storm-based Warnings

• Challenges for Storm-based Warnings

• We need your help!

• Q & A

• Benefits of Storm-based Warnings

• Plans for Storm-based Warnings

• Challenges for Storm-based Warnings

• We need your help!

• Q & A

NWS MissionCongressional Organic Act of 1890

NWS MissionCongressional Organic Act of 1890

“To provide public weather forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property

and to provide weather information for the Nation’s

economic well-being”

“To provide public weather forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property

and to provide weather information for the Nation’s

economic well-being”

A Comparison of Tornado EventsA Comparison of Tornado Events

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

To

rna

do

es

per

ye

ar

USA Australia Canada China France Japan0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

To

rna

do

es

per

ye

ar

USA Australia Canada China France Japan

County-Based Tornado Warnings8 Counties under warning

Almost 1 million people warned

County-Based Tornado Warnings8 Counties under warning

Almost 1 million people warned

Storm-Based Tornado Warnings70% less area covered

~600,000 fewer people warned

Storm-Based Tornado Warnings70% less area covered

~600,000 fewer people warned

• More specific• Increased clarity• Supports newdissemination technology

From County-Based Warnings to Storm-Based Warnings

From County-Based Warnings to Storm-Based Warnings

Three simultaneous tornadoes within line

of severe thunderstorms

In the current system, six full counties are warned. Storm-Based Tornado Warnings provide much improved service.

Storm-Based WarningsProvide Improved Service

Strong circulation within line of severe

thunderstorms

Tornado warning area based on storm without

regard to county boundaries

Effective Storm-Based Warnings Can Avoid Unnecessary Warning of Population CentersEffective Storm-Based Warnings Can Avoid Unnecessary Warning of Population Centers

Most of the Dallas/Fort Worth metropolitan area is correctly omitted from this Storm-Based

tornado warning. New siren system selectively activated.

“Storm-based warnings would save the public a minimum of $100 million

dollars a year in reduction of the cost of

sheltering”- Dr. Dan Sutter

Professor of Economics

An Extreme Example ofFalsely Alarmed Area

An Extreme Example ofFalsely Alarmed Area

Graphic Disseminationof Storm-Based Warnings

Graphic Disseminationof Storm-Based Warnings

Screen capture of Brian Busby at the ABC affiliate in Kansas City, MO.

WFO Kansas City/Pleasant Hill issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning (blue) then

upgraded to a Tornado Warning (red).

Here’s the PlanHere’s the Plan

• Begin storm-based warnings (TOR, SVR) on October 1, 2007

• Official announcement likely January 18, 2007• Currently gathering feedback from partners and

customers• Broadcasters (NWA, AMS, E-mail lists)• Emergency managers (IAEM, NEMA, E-mail lists)• Private Sector Meteorologist• December 5-6 – Technical Dissemination Workshop at

TAMU

• Begin storm-based warnings (TOR, SVR) on October 1, 2007

• Official announcement likely January 18, 2007• Currently gathering feedback from partners and

customers• Broadcasters (NWA, AMS, E-mail lists)• Emergency managers (IAEM, NEMA, E-mail lists)• Private Sector Meteorologist• December 5-6 – Technical Dissemination Workshop at

TAMU

Other SB Warning ActivitiesOther SB Warning Activities

• Briefing NOAA, DOC, GAO on impacts to verification

• Training warning forecasters

• Upgrading AWIPS software

• Updating NWS Directives

• Briefing NOAA, DOC, GAO on impacts to verification

• Training warning forecasters

• Upgrading AWIPS software

• Updating NWS Directives

Challenges for SB WarningsCWA Boundaries

Challenges for SB WarningsCWA Boundaries

Challenges for SB WarningsText /Audio Dissemination

Challenges for SB WarningsText /Audio Dissemination

• Already use directional delimiters • “A Tornado Warning is in effect for

Southwestern Montgomery County”

• Add cities, towns, landmarks, highway mile markers• Maximum number?• Metro areas - problematic

• NWR Improvement Project specifies need for “geo-targeting” specific radio transmitters

• Already use directional delimiters • “A Tornado Warning is in effect for

Southwestern Montgomery County”

• Add cities, towns, landmarks, highway mile markers• Maximum number?• Metro areas - problematic

• NWR Improvement Project specifies need for “geo-targeting” specific radio transmitters

Tornado Warning BulletinTornado Warning Bulletin

Multiple Warnings in One County/Parish

Multiple Warnings in One County/Parish

• Not an issue for graphical depictions

• Text issue for radio, TV crawls

• How to reference other warnings both in warning and in statements?

• Include counties with directional delimiters?

• Summary SVSs?

• Not an issue for graphical depictions

• Text issue for radio, TV crawls

• How to reference other warnings both in warning and in statements?

• Include counties with directional delimiters?

• Summary SVSs?

Questions?Questions?

Contact Information:

John.T.Ferree@noaa.govPhone 405-325-2209

Contact Information:

John.T.Ferree@noaa.govPhone 405-325-2209

Thank you for your attention!