Steve Edburg Assistant Research Professor Laboratory for Atmospheric Research Washington State...

Steve Edburg

Assistant Research ProfessorLaboratory for Atmospheric Research

Washington State University

sedburg@wsu.edu

My Background

• Large-eddy simulation (LES)– PhD work at WSU

• Earth system modeling (EaSM)– Postdoctoral work at UI

SOIL

SUN

Gas emission from biological processes in forest and soil

FOREST

air + trace gases

INFLOW

Mixing & ChemicalReactions

Products and reactants from biosphere atmosphere

interaction

OUTFLOW

LES Overview• Gap in knowledge: The role of turbulence on chemical

production or loss within a forest canopy is unknown

• Objective: Our objective was to determine if reaction rates are modified by intermittent turbulent structures

• Hypothesis: Our central hypothesis was that turbulent structures alter reactions rates by un-evenly mixing trace gases above the canopy with gases emitted from trees

• Goal: Use large-eddy simulation to determine the influence of coherent structures on trace gas reaction rates

Side View Animation

Top View Animation

Scalar Segregation

Earth System Modeling

EaSM Overview

• Knowledge gap: Impact of bark beetle outbreak on carbon cycling is unknown

• Objective: Quantify the impact of bark beetles on carbon cycling across the western US

• Aims: – Create a regional insect disturbance product;– modify a Earth system model;– conduct simulations with and without outbreaks

USDA Forest Service, 2004

In 2009,• 4.3 Mha/10.6 Macres affected by bark beetles• 3.6 Mha/8.8 Macres affected by mountain pine beetle

Why is this issue important?1. Infestations are widespread throughout western US

10

11

Photo by C. Schnepf, forestryimages.org

Dead tree, needles on Needles off Snag fall/understory growth

Physical and biogeochemical characteristics compared with undamaged forest

1. Reduced GPP2. Reduced ET

1. Reduced LAI2. Reduced

Interception

1. Increased Rh

2. Initial recovery

Year following attack After 3-5 years After several decades

Photo by Arjan Meddens Photo by Arjan Meddens

Simulated Soil N Dynamics Play a Key Role in C Fluxes and Recovery

5 yr

10 yr 25 yr

Point simulation in Idaho: 95% mortality over 3 years

Future Research

“Daily Forecasts of Wildland Fire Impacts on Air Quality in the Pacific Northwest: Enhancing the AIRPACT Decision Support System ”

Team: S. Edburg, B. Lamb, J. Vaughan, A. Kochanski, M.A. Jenkins, J. Mandel, N. Larkin, T. Strand, and R. Mell

Pending, submitted in December 2011 to NASA ROSES: Wildland

Fires

Project Overview• Our long-term goal is to continue the development of AIRPACT

and evaluation tools to support decision making activities

• The objective of this proposal is to improve the representation of wildland fires within AIRPACT

• Our specific aim is to implement the WRF-Fire model within AIRPACT and evaluate simulations with satellite products

• We expect this will improve the plume rise and emission estimates and our evaluation techniques

• In our opinion, this will improve daily predictions of wildland fire impacts on air quality across the pacific northwest

EOS inputs:

MOPITT (CO)

MODIS / GOES

CMAQ-Influence of fire on the Air Quality forecast (e.g. PM2.5, O3, NO2, CO, NMHC)

SMARTFIRE-Fire location-Fire area

BlueSky Modeling Framework-Speciated emissions-Time rate of emissions-Plume injection height of emissions

S.M.O.K.E -Emissions preprocessor

WRF-Fire

-Time rate of emissions-Plume Injection Heights

-Influence of meteorology on fire spread and intensity

Proposed Additions

EOS Evaluation

-OMI NO2 & O3

-MISR/CALPISO aerosol

AIRPACT

WRF-Meteorological Input-72 hour forecast

Example of WRF-Fire

Example of WRF-Fire