Statistics and the cumberland valley rail trail

STATISTICS AND THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY RAIL TRAIL

Dr. Paul Taylor – Department of Mathematics

Cumberland Valley Rail Trail

The current trail What the trail

could be Helping the trail

with statistics

Where is the trail?

To Newville

Where is the trail?

Seavers

Water Tower

Etter

McLeanReisner

Where is the trail?

Seavers

Water Tower

Etter

McLeanReisner

Where is the trail?

Shippensburg

NewvilleCarlisle

Chambersburg

Trail facts and figures

National Recreational Trail 9 miles of crushed stone, 0.5 mile

paved, completed 2006 1.5 miles unprepared Parking, picnic area and restrooms at

Shippensburg, Newville and Oakville Maintained by all-volunteer, non-

profit CVRTC

Trail users

Runners Walkers Bikers Dogs Horseback

Trail events

October 2, 2010 5K run and 4

mile hike April 17, 2011

15K run, 5K run, 30K bike ride, 15K walk

June 4, 2011 10K run

Future expansion – Fogelsanger Bridge

Future expansion – Big Spring Bridge

Carlisle Extension

Shippensburg

NewvilleCarlisle

Chambersburg

Carlisle Extension - Obstacles Money – Design, construction, land

purchase PPL must agree to sell Other landowners 465 (Allen Rd) to Dickinson College

Trail usage – Ship trailhead In order to promote the trail with

the community, businesses, landowners, municipal supervisors and politicians, the CVRTC needs trail usage data.

The busiest part of the trail is the Ship trailhead.

Ship students, faculty and staff are major users of the trail.

National Bicycle and Pedestrian Documentation Project (NBPD) National

effort to document trail use

Develops guidelines for low-cost trail use estimates

Trail usage – Ship trailhead Applied Statistics students

(MAT117) record trail use, one hour at a time

Data is compiled adjusted to control for time, weekday and month

User profile is also recorded (activity, approximate age)

Trail usage – Ship trailhead

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Trail Users Recorded

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Annual Estimated Trail Users

Average 10.36

Average 54,308

Trail usage – Ship trailhead Estimate 40,000-60,000 trail

annual trail users at the Ship trailhead Range is extended on the lower side to adjust for winter usage below NBPD estimates

Ship trailhead – Sample

demographics5.7%

78.2%

16.1%

Child Adult Senior

31.4%

32.7%

23.0%

11.9% 1.0%

WalkingRunningBikingWalking DogOther

The future - Improving the data

More hours Four seasons Other trail locations Trail monitoring

technology QUESTIONS? pttaylor@ship.edu