SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010 Sea Surface Temperature in the Coral Triangle Scott...

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

Sea Surface Temperature in the Coral Triangle

Scott F. Heron, NOAA Coral Reef Watch

presenting the work of many others

Sea Surface Temperature in the Coral Triangle

Scott F. Heron, NOAA Coral Reef Watch

presenting the work of many others

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

ERSST (2° grid)

HadISST (1° grid)

Eakin et al. (2009)

Long-term SST, >100km scale, monthlyLong-term SST, >100km scale, monthly

Heron et al. (2008)

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

Regional trend (9 sites)0.232 ± 0.078 °C/dec

Global trend (50 sites)0.237 ± 0.061 °C/dec

(Eakin et al. 2009)

Recent SST, ~50km scale, twice-weeklyRecent SST, ~50km scale, twice-weekly

SST trendPeñaflor et al. 2009

% reef pixels

DHW > 0 DHW ≥ 4

Peñaflor et al. 2009

85-

9596

-06

# stress events

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

CT regions – SST, fish, combinedCT regions – SST, fish, combined

Green and Mous 2008

Peñaflor et al. 2009

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

New SST capacity, 11km scale, dailyNew SST capacity, 11km scale, daily

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

Recent SST, 4km scale, retrospectiveRecent SST, 4km scale, retrospectiveStrong et al. 2009

85-95 96-06

Selig et al. 2010

CoRTAD

TSA

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

30.84 °C

3.48 °C

Recent SST, 1km scale, dailyRecent SST, 1km scale, daily

imos.org.au

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

Currents + Sea-level connectivity residence time search and rescue tidal variation

thermal capacitance

MPA Modelling, 250m scale - PalauMPA Modelling, 250m scale - Palau

TC

Low

High

3u

h

SST

High

Low

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

MPA Modelling, 30m scale – Heron IslandMPA Modelling, 30m scale – Heron Island

RegionalIntermediate

Local

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

Climate Modelling, 30m downscaling – Heron IslandClimate Modelling, 30m downscaling – Heron Island

• Same spatial patterns• Temperature increase

(per climate model)

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

Low chronicLow acute

High chronicLow acute

Low chronicHigh acute

High chronicHigh acute

acute stress

chro

nic

str

ess

MPA design – satellite historyMPA design – satellite history

Maximumof the

MonthlyMeans

Anomaly during bleachingMumby et al., in review

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

Low chronicLow acute

Low chronicHigh acute

High chronicHigh acute

acute stress

chro

nic

str

ess

MPA design – satellite historyMPA design – satellite history

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

Low chronicLow acute

Low chronicHigh acute

acute stress

chro

nic

str

ess

MPA design – satellite historyMPA design – satellite history

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

Low chronicHigh acute

acute stress

chro

nic

str

ess

MPA design – satellite historyMPA design – satellite history

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

acute stress

chro

nic

str

ess

MPA design – satellite historyMPA design – satellite history

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

chro

nic

stre

ss

acute stress

chro

nic

acute

MPA design – satellite historyMPA design – satellite history

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

Thermal history for each site was determined

Montastraea and gorgonian reefs were identified from the national habitat map

286 polygons were created containing these sites

chro

nic

acute

MPA design – satellite history, BahamasMPA design – satellite history, Bahamas

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

chro

nic

acute

945 km

Cowen R.K., et al.(2006)

MPA design – satellite history + connectivityMPA design – satellite history + connectivity

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

Ganachaud et al. 2010

AR4 streamfunction changes A2 in 2090, SverdrupsAR4 streamfunction changes A2 in 2090, Sverdrups

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

Pacific Sea Level AnomaliesPacific Sea Level Anomalies

C. Steinberg, pers. comm.

SST in the CT, TNC Workshop, Brisbane, May2010

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

Craig Steinberg, AIMS

Al Strong, NOAA CRW

Mark Eakin, NOAA CRW