Sospeter Muhongo University of Dar Es Salaam s.muhongo@bol.co.tz profmuhongo.sospeter@gmail

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Global Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) Trends: Opportunities and Challenges

for Africa’s Development – The Role of Parliament

Sospeter MuhongoUniversity of Dar Es Salaam

s.muhongo@bol.co.tzprofmuhongo.sospeter@gmail.c

omADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA Monday, 02 May 2011

Launching the African Inter-Parliamentary Forum on Science, Technology and Innovation (AIPF-STI)

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THE AFRICAN PARLIAMENT: In case of STI

• Promote and Facilitate the Sustainability of Sound Livelihood of the African population through the deployment of STI

MAIN ACTION LINES:• Promote and Facilitate the Generation of

Knowledge for Competitive, Robust and Predictable Economic Growth

• Support sustainability of sound STI Educational, Training and R&D Infrastructure, including National Innovation Systems

●Promote and Facilitate Commercialization of Africa’s R&D products

• Promote and Facilitate the Generation, Growth & Retention of Quality STI Human Resource

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Global Population GrowthGlobal Population Growthfrom from 1750 to 20501750 to 2050

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GLOBAL POPULATION 2010

4

World 6.9 billion

Asia 4.2 billion 60%Africa 1.03 billion 15%

Europe 733 million 10%S. America 589 million 8.5%N. America 352 million 5.1%Oceania 36 million 0.5%

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EXPENDITURE ON EDUCATIONUNESCO Report 2010

% OF TOTAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE (most recent)A-Sub-Saharan Africa

1. Botswana: 25.6%2. Guinea: 25.6%3. Comoros: 24.1%4. Kenya: 22.1%5. Burundi: 21.8%

B-EMERGING BIG ECONOMIES1. China: 12.9%2. India: 12.7%3. Brazil: 12%

B-ESTABLISHED BIG ECONOMIES1. UK: 11.5%2. France: 11.4%

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QUALITY EDUCATION(Secondary School Enrolment Data, UNICEF 2009)

Sec Sch. Enrols.(%) Sec Sch. Enrols. Female (%)Africa 31% GDP/capita (US$) 29%Sub-Saharan Africa 30 28

Mauritius 80 6,734.50 81 South Africa 72 5,785.99 74

Kenya 49 738.05 48 Nigeria 26 1,118.11 22 Senegal 25 1,022.96 22Brazil 82 8,121.50 85UK 93 35,164.86 95France 98 41,050.89 99

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Critical Mass of Competent African Experts: Sustainable Development

Number of scientists/engineers vs. population:Africa: less than 1 per 10,000 inhabitants Uganda: 35 Radiologists for 30 million people

(1 radiologist treats 1.2 million people) ca.2.5 million new engineers are needed in SSA just to ensure provision of CLEAN WATER

and SANITATION to everyone

European Standards: 6 researchers per 10,000 inhabitants 2008 Scandinavia: 70 per 10,000 inhabitants

China: 2008 – 25 researchers per 10,000 inhabitants 2020 - 43 researchers per 10,000 inhabitants

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THE AFRICAN PARLIAMENT:HEAVY INVESTMENT IN THE

EDUCATION SECTOR

PRIORITY NO. 1

QUALITY EDUCATION AT ALL LEVELS

Major Funding Sources:Government: Central & LocalPrivate SectorFoundations & other NGOs

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21st Century Economic Prosperity = Knowledge +Technology + Innovation

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G20ArgentinaAustralia

BrazilCanadaChinaFrance

GermanyIndia

IndonesiaItaly

JapanSouth Korea

MexicoRussia

Saudi ArabiaSouth Africa

TurkeyUK

USAEuropean Union

Share of World's papers in Science, Medicine and Engineering (20072007)

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GENERATION OF KNOWLEDGE (2008)

WORLD SHARE OF SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONSA- Africa

1. Africa: 2%2. South Africa: 0.5% (PhDs: 1,200 per annum)

B-EMERGING BIG ECONOMIES1. China: 10.6%2. India: 3.7%3. Brazil: 2.7% (PhDs: 10,000 per annum)

B-ESTABLISHED BIG ECONOMIES1. UK: 7.2%2. France: 5.8%3. Germany: 7.7%4. USA: 27.7%

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Generation of Knowledge: South Korea vs Africa

India vs SADC

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2.79%

1.70%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

SouthKorea

AllAfrica

Average: 2003-2008South Korea’s share of ISI-listed S&E papers is 1.6 times that of the entire African continent

2004-2008: WORLD’S SCIENTIFIC

PUBLICATIONS

SADC (15 COUNTIRES): 0.79% of world’s publicationsINDIA: 2.9% of world’s publications

Source: TWAS, May 2008

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KNOWLEDGE FOR ECONOMIC PROSPERITY (2007)

WORLD’S PATENTS REGISTRATION (USPTO patents)A- Africa

1. Africa: 0.1%2. South Africa: 0.1%

B-EMERGING BIG ECONOMIES1. China: 4.7%2. India: 0.5%3. Brazil: 0.1%

B-ESTABLISHED BIG ECONOMIES1. UK: 2.6%2. France: 2.3%3. Germany: 6.2%4. USA: 52.2%

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Patent Data on Cassava (2005-2010)

From esp@cenet-worldwide, Matheo Patent Software

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AFRICA’S ECONOMIC PROSPERITY THROUGH TIME

AFRICA’S SHARES IN THE WORLD TRADE

1963 2006EXPORTS 5.7% 3.1%IMPORTS 5.2% 2.4%

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THE AFRICAN PARLIAMENT:R&D BUDGETS

PRIORITY NO. 2: HEAVY INVESTMENT IN R&D

In 2008 SHARE OF GDP: GROSS DOMESTIC EXPENDITURE ON R&D (GERD) A- Africa

1. South Africa: 0.93%2. Majority of African countries range: 0.1-0.6% (>1.0 GDP?????)

B-EMERGING BIG ECONOMIES1. China: 1.5%2. India: 0.88%3. Brazil: 1.13%

B-ESTABLISHED BIG ECONOMIES1. UK: 1.88%2. France: 2.02%3. Germany: 2.63%4. USA: 2.76%

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2010 Top Universities in the World: 21 September 2010

1. University of Cambridge, UK 2. Harvard University, USA3. Yale University, USA 4. University College London, UK 5. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), USA

6.University of Oxford, UK7. Imperial College London, UK 8. University of Chicago, USA9. California Institute of Technology (Caltech) , USA 10. Princeton University, USA

Africa: No. 161 – University of Cape Town, South Africa

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Quality Higher Education & Quality Research

University of Cape Town: Est. 01 October 1829Rank No 1 in AfricaRank No 161 in the World: QS World University RankingsNo of Students: 23, 500

Undergraduate: 15,800Postgraduate: 6,700

No of Staff: 4,500Endowment 2010: US$ 300 MillionNobel Laureates: 5 of the University's graduates

1. In 1950, Ralph Bunche, Nobel Peace Prize2. In 1951, Max Theiler, Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine3. In 1979, Prof Allan McLeod Cormack, Nobel Prize in Medicine4. In 1982, Sir Aaron Klug, Nobel Prize in Chemistry5. In 2003, Prof J M Coetzee, Nobel Prize in Literature

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THE AFRICAN PARLIAMENT: STI Focus Areas for Eradication of Poverty

African Governments and their Parliaments:1. Education: Quality at all levels2. Energy: Reliable Availability and Affordable 3. Water: Available and Affordable for domestic, agricultural and

industrial consumption4. Food & Nutrition Security5. Health Services: Quality, Reliable, Affordable6. Industrial & Agricultural Materials7. Transport: Roads, Railways, Marine, Airways8. Environmental Protection: Climate Change - Mitigation &

Adaptation9. STI Policies & Implementation: Monitoring/Evaluation/Review Plans╙►► 10. ICTs: fundamental tool for all focus areas

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2008 WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION(source: www.solcomhouse.com)

% World Population % Energy Consumption

Africa 14.0 3.0India 16.6 3.1China 21.2 16.0

USA 4.6 21.0Japan 2.1 5.8Germany 1.3 3.9France 0.9 2.9UK 1.0 2.6

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ELECTRICITY IN AFRICA Total World Electricity Generation by Fuel (2006)1.Coal: 41% 2. Gas: 20%3. Hydro: 16% 4.Nuclear: 15%5. Oil: 6% 6. Others: 2% Include: solar, wind, geothermal & bio-energies

The importance of coal to electricity generation worldwide is set to continue, with coal fuelling 44% of global electricity in 2030.

Coal in Electricity Generation: (1) South Africa 93% (2) Poland 92% (3) PR China 79% (4) Australia 77% (5) Kazakhstan 70% (6) India 69% (7) Israel 63% (8) Czech Rep 60% (9) Morocco 55% (10) Greece 52% (11) USA 49% (12) Germany 46%

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Energy Resources of AfricaPrimary Energy sources:♦ Coal – ca. 6% of world’s reserves, to last >300 years

Electricity Production: 4.3% Consumption: 0.5%♦ Natural Gas – ca. 8% of world’s reserves, to last >50 years

2020: Africa will account for 20% of global oil & gas discoveries

Electricity Production: 7% Consumption: 3.1%♦ Oil – ca.10% of the world’s reserves

Electricity Production: 12% Consumption: 3.4% ♦ Nuclear- Uranium reserves to last >100 years♦ Hydro-power: about 12% of the world’s total

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ENERGY FOR THE MAJORITY IN AFRICARealistic for the majority in the Developing World

Renewable Energies: Energy of the Future♦ Bio-Energies

♦ Bioethanol (Brazil produces 35% of the world’s ethanol) ♦ Biodiesel: Jatropha curcas: drylands in Africa Italy: Jatropha project, US$ 20 million, 70 hectares in Mozambique

♦ Biogas ♦ Biomass

♦ Solar: Northern Africa: Euro Desertec Solar Project, Euro 400 billion♦ Wind: (a) Red Sea (Gulf of el Zayt): Germany-200 MW (Euro 340 million), a large

wind farm in Africa, (b) South Africa: 100 MW Hopefield wind farm♦ Geothermal: Kenya (2010)-209 MW, new projects 280 MW (2012-2013)♦ Ocean – (a) waves/tides, (b) hydrocarbons on the sea-bed♦ Fusion Power: Hydrogen/Helium: Hydrogen Car in the offing

is the process driving the Sun and others in the Solar System. It generates large quantities of heat by fusing the nuclei of H or He isotopes, which may be derived from seawater.

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Energy in sub-Saharan Africa (2003 to 2007)

%age of population with access to electricity (some examples)

Countries having Academies of Sciences:

1. Mauritius: 99.4% 2. South Africa: 75% 3. Ghana: 54%4. Nigeria: 46.8% 5. Senegal: 42% 6. Zimbabwe: 41.5%7. Cameroon: 29.4% 8. Kenya: 15% 9. Mozambique: 11.7%10. Uganda: 9%

November 2010: 17% of the population in Mozambique had electricity in their homes.

15% of the population in Tanzania had access to

electricity

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Mauritius99.4% of the population has access to

electricity 2010 2025

Bagasse - 353.6 GWh (Biomass) 16% 17%Coal – 875 GWh 43% 40%HFO - 907.8 GWh (Heavy Fuel Oil) 37% 25%Hydro - 122.4 GWh 4% 2%Wind - 1.5 GWh 0% 8%Solar PV 0% 2%Geothermal 0% 2%Waste to Energy (Biogas) 0% 4%

╙►Total = 100%

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South Africa: 2010-2030 Energy Mix75% of population has access to electricity

●Coal: 48%●Renewable Energies: 16%●Nuclear: 14%●Gas: 9%●Pumped Storage Hydroelectricity: 11%●Hydro-power (imported): 2%╙►Total = 100%

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USA: 2009 Electricity Generation by source

1. Coal: 44.9%2. Natural Gas: 23.4%3. Nuclear: 20.3%4.Hydroelectric (conventional): 6.9%5. Other Renewables: 3.5%6. Petroleum: 1.0%╙►Total = 100%

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GLOBAL STI RESEARCH TREND ON ENERGY

ENERGY OF THE FUTURE: (1) RENEWABLE ENERGIES

EUROPEAN STRATEGY:2007: Total power generation from the Renewable

Energy Sources accounts for 6.5% of the total2020: The target is to reach 20%

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SOLAR ENERGY:Photovoltaic (PV) Solar Energy

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SOLAR ENERGY: Nanosolar Cells●NANOTECHNOLOGY promises to provide a new

generation of NANOSOLAR CELLS much CHEAPER and MORE EFFICIENT than current solar cells based on silicon

●Thin-film solar panels coated with nanoparticle sheets (rolling off machines like pages of newspapers at a rate of several hundred sheets per minute) promise to reduce production costs to US$1 per Watt

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(S Source: DLR 2009, which was derived from NASA SSE 6.0 dataset (NASA

GLOBAL SOLAR POTENTIAL (Source: DLR 2009, Derived from NASA SSE 6.0 Dataset (NASA 2009)

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GLOBAL TREND: RENEWABLE ENERGIES

SOLAR AFRICAN CITIES/TOWNSMain factors motivating African cities and towns to promote and install solar energy. The market drivers include:

(1)Economic Development:Global Solar Energy market increasing by 40% every year – expected to grow from: US$13 billion to US$32 billion by 2012:

(a) Creating Local Solar Companies & Markets (b) Taxes for Central & Local Governments

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GLOBAL TREND: RENEWABLE ENERGIES

SOLAR AFRICAN CITIES/TOWNS(2) Job Creation – Solar Industry Jobs are expected to

increase 26% by August 2011 in USA, compared to expected growth of 2% for the rest of the economy.

(3) Reduced Energy Costs – Solar, particularly when financed with a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), often brings about reduction in energy costs immediately with no or low initial capital costs

(4) Climate Protection – Reduce Carbon Emissions in African cities and towns.

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Wind Energy: 1980-2008

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2008 DISTRIBUTION OF WORLD WIND POWER CAPACITY

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(Source: GWEC – GLOBAL WIND REPORTS)

BEST EXAMPLE IN AFRICA: EGYPT

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GLOBAL WATER STRESS & SCARCITY

• WATER STRESS: ╙► Annual Water Supply drops below 1,700 m3 per person• WATER SCARCITY: ╙► Annual Water Supply is below 1,000 m3 per person

2010: 1/3 of the world’s population faced water scarcity2025: 2/3 of the world’s population could face water stress

LAKE CHAD SHRIKAGE: 1964: 25,000 sq.km.2010: 2,000 sq.km.

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WATER STRESS & SCARCITY IN AFRICA

Examples in Africa:(1)40% of Africa’s 1.03 billion people live in urban areas ╙►

60% of them in slums where water supply andsanitation are severely inadequate

(2) DR Congo holds 50% of Africa’s water reserve ╙► 2011: ca 75% of population has no access to safe drinking water(3) Nigeria –Global Initiative for Women & Children (GIWAC)01.12.2010: ●69 million people (ca. 46%) do not have access to safe drinking water

●103 million people (ca. 69%) do not have access to adequate sanitation facilities.

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Health & Well-being :WATER RESOURCES

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GLOBAL TREND ON WATER SCIENCERIVER BASINS OF AFRICA

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GLOBAL TREND ON WATER SCIENCE Trans-boundary

Aquifers of the World:>95% of the Earth’s usable freshwater is stored

as groundwater

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Saudi Arabia's Desalination Plants cost ca. US$10 billionFlickr/Waleed Alzuhair

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FOOD SECURITY & NUTRITION STRATEGY FOOD SECURITY & NUTRITION STRATEGY IN AFRICAIN AFRICA

• 1 Billion people go to bed hungry each night• Africa: 240 million people are

undernourished

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AGRICULTURE IN AFRICA(Recent Facts & Figures)

●In 2008: the whole of SSA employed: 68 researchers per million economically active agricultural

population

●In 2008: Investment in agricultural R&D-Sub-Saharan Africa: US$ 1.7 billionNigeria- US$ 404 millionSouth Africa – US$ 272 millionKenya – US$ 171 million

 In

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Source: Beintema & Stads (2008)

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Sub-Saharan Africa (45) Asia-Pacific (26)

Latin America & Caribbean (25) West Asia & North Africa (12)

Low & middle income (108) High income (32)

Low R&D Spending in AfricaAfrican Governments spend on average ca. 4.5% of their budgets on Agriculture

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GLOBAL TREND: AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES & TECHNOLOGIES

Increased Expenditure on R&D:Africa’s R&D Growth: 1970s at 5.4 % per year1980s at 3.8% “1990s at 1.3% “

AU Decisions: African GovernmentsAgriculture: >10% of national budgets

╙►agricultural productivity: >6% per annumScience: >1% of GDP

the

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GLOBAL TREND: Food for Population Growth & Heavy Investment

in Commercial Farming

AGRICULTURE: 80% of Africa’s populationBest known agro-minerals of Africa:

Phosphate rocks, e.g. apatite Guano minerals: P- and N- bearing compounds Saltpetre: Na-nitrate K-salts: K-zeolites, K-micas, K-bearing volcanics Sulphates: Ca-sulphate (gypsum) Carbonates: Ca-Mg carbonates

Phosphates: Africa accounts for about 76% of World’s reserves

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GLOBAL TREND IN AGRICULTURE: BIOTECHNOLOGY

Genomics: transgenically convert C3 to C4 plants

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GLOBAL TREND IN FOOD SECURITYExamples: Rice & Wheat

● Rice is the staple food for approx 50% of the world’s population. Why export minerals/oil?

● African Rice has been cultivated for 3,500 years╙► Biotechnology: approx 50,000 genes in a rice grain

● Wheat: Rain fed production: 0.3 kg/cu.m.Irrigated production: 0.8 kg/cu.m.

╙► Supplemented Irrigation production: 2.2 kg/cu.m.Balance: Irrigation (water) & agriculture (Africa?)

currently (global estimate) agriculture consumes approx 70% fresh water used

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MALARIA IN AFRICA(WHO, World Malaria Report 2010)

Deaths per 100,000 population1. Togo 23.51 6,618,613 (total population)

2. Senegal 4.58 12,534,228 3. Nigeria 4.86 154,728,895 4. Cameroon 25.32 19,521,645 5. DR Congo 31.67 66,832,000 6. Rwanda 8.09 9,997,614 7. Uganda 19.25 32,709,864 8. Tanzania 1.92 43,739,052 9. Malawi 42.76 15,263,415 10.Angola 56.93 18,497,632

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Summary of Disease Characteristics, Pathogen, and Current Standard of Care

Disease and pathogen Disease Burden/ annum

Population at risk Current standard of care(launch year): Limitations

Malaria: A parasitic disease caused by the pathogen Plasmodium species, of which P. falciparum is the most deadly. The pathogen is transmitted by Anopheles mosquitoes.

1 million deaths

300-500 million cases

*34.7 M

40% of global population

86% in Africa

Children and pregnant women are most susceptible

-Chloroquine (1945): resistance; -Primaquin (1948): safety; -Fansidar (1961): resistance; -Mefloquine (1984): resistance, safety; -Artemisin (1994): cost, compliance, GMP; -Atovaquone (1999): cost

Tuberculosis (TB): A bacterial disease that mostcommonly affects the lungs, caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis

2 million deaths

9 million cases(active)

*46.4 M

Pandemic

2 billion have latent TB

Over 80% in sub- Sahara Immuno compromised persons

All first line drugs have issues concerning resistance, toxicity and bioavailabilitty (6-9 months)-Rifampicin (1963), -Ethambutol (1962), -Streptomycin (1955), -Pyrazinamide (1954), -Isoniazid (1952)

Sources: WHO/TDR and Hotez, P.J., et al., Control of neglected tropical diseases. N Engl J Med, 2007. 357(10): p. 1018-27.*One disability adjusted life year (DALY) is equivalent to one year of healthy life lost.Source of DALY information: WHO/TDR.

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GLOBAL TREND IN HEALTHCARENanosciences & Nanotechnologies

(Dr Hulda Swai, 2010, CSIR, South Africa

Anti-TBdrugs

Polymericshell

Smallest human cell is 2umNanoparticles diameter = 2% of a

human hair diameter

INH-loaded PLGA nanoparticles

Nano-Encapsulated TB Drugs

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GLOBAL TREND IN HEALTHCAREAdvantage of Nanodrug Delivery System

• Enhanced drug stability

• Target specific tissue and cells

• Delivery through lymphatic system

• Minimised first pass metabolism

• Improved bioavailability

• Reduced toxicity of drugs

• Through slow release can reduced dosage and dose frequency

• Targeted to immune system; infectious disease

• Improves the half life

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GLOBAL TREND- The NANO-enabled drug discovery market generated revenues of $1.3 billion by 2009 and will generate $2.5 billion by 2012

The Impact of Nanotechnology in Drug Discovery: Global Developments, Market Analysis and Future Prospects", by the US consultancy, NanoMarkets, Mark Phillips, 2005

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GLOBAL TREND: STI & IPRsExamples for Indigenous Knowledge

●Bio-Resource Potential of Africa: The global market for plant based drugs has been estimated at $43 billion. At least 1/6th of the world’s estimated 270,000 plant species are endemic to Africa● BONN Guidelines on access to genetic resources and fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising out of their utilization (2002)

● ARIPO legal instrument of the protection of traditional knowledge and expressions of folklore (2006)● WHO/AFRO/TRM (draft) policy and regulatory framework for the protection and promotion of traditional and indigenous medicine knowledge and to access to biological resources in Africa (2006)● WIPO document on IP and genetic resources, traditional knowledge and traditional cultural expressions/folklore (2006)

● AAAS document on traditional knowledge and IP (2003)

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IMPROVEMENTS IN QUALITY OF LIFEIMPROVEMENTS IN QUALITY OF LIFE

SUSTAINED ECONOMIC GROWTHSUSTAINED ECONOMIC GROWTH

NATIONAL INNOVATION SYSTEMSNATIONAL INNOVATION SYSTEMS

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APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGIESAPPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGIES

BASIC & APPLIED SCIENCES BASIC & APPLIED SCIENCES (+(+EDUCATIONAL & RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURE)EDUCATIONAL & RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURE)

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GLOBAL SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH TRENDS: Future Sustainable Livelihood

Global STI trends: 10 billion people in 2050

● The Science of Climate Change: Mitigation & Adaptation● Agricultural Technologies & Industries

(i.e., Seed Research & Development)● Life & Health Sciences● Earth System Sciences (+resources, e.g., water & minerals)● Energy Resources

(i.e., Renewable Energies, Gas & Coal)● Space Sciences & Technologies● Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs)╙►►►Bio-& Nano-Sciences/Technologies

(e.g., Food & Nutrition, Water, Health and Energy)

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COMMUNICATION (2008)INTERNET USERS PER 1 MILLION POPULATION

A- Africa1. Africa: 8142. South Africa: 843

B-EMERGING BIG ECONOMIES1. China: 2,2282. India: 4303. Brazil: 3,752

B-ESTABLISHED BIG ECONOMIES1. UK: 7,8392. France: 7,0683. Germany: 7,7914. USA: 7,400

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GLOBAL TREND: Quality Data Information Services - Observing Systems

over 6,000 satellites in space, each lasting 15 yrs

IKONOS

QuickBird

SPIN-2SPOT 4, 5

EROS A1

EnvisatAura/Aqua/Terra

Grace

QuikScatSage

SeaWindsTRMM

Toms-EP

UARSLandsat 7

SORCE

ACRIMSAT

CBERS

SeaWiFS

ERBS

Jason

Orbview 2, 3

Radarsat ALOS

DMC

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Size of Africa: Enormous & Ubiquitous Natural Resources

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Re=6378 kmRe=6378 km

Rm=3397 kmRm=3397 km

MARSMARSEARTHEARTH

Earth’s MoonEarth’s Moon