Setting up the stage Marine Global Changes...09.00 – 09.20 – Revisiting the definitions [Piero]...

CeMEB Advanced course Marine Evolution under Climate

Change

Setting up the stage

Marine Global Changes

09.00 – 09.20 – Revisiting the definitions [Piero] 09.20 - 10.00 – Setting up the stage – marine global changes [Sam] 10.00 – 10.30 – Coffee/tea 10.30 – 11.30 – Adaptation potential and quantitative genetics [Sam] 11.30 – 12.00 – Organization of the afternoon [Sam] 12.00 – 13.00 – Lunch 13.00 – 17.00 – Group discussion + Boat trip + Practicals [All] 17.00 – 18.00 – Dinner 18.00 - … - Pub & Group Discussion

Day 2

Marine Global Changes

Blue planet – 70% of oceans

Services?

Regulate climate Production of oxygen

The cradle of life - 90% of all species - 33 / 35 animal phyla in the sea (17 ONLY in the sea) - Unlimited diversity of size, adaptation, life history traits, body plans, etc.

The last frontier - 1500 new species described every year - only 1% of the deep sea explored

Direct economic value

Direct economic value

Traditional Chinese Medicine Medicine / Biotechnology

e.g. Frondoside A

Other interests

Scientific model species Iconic species

Sir John Carew Eccles Alan Lloyd Hodgkin Andrew Fielding Huxley

Leland H. Hartwell Jim Hunt Paul Nurse

Roger Tsien, Martin Chalfie & Osamu Shimomura 2008

The ocean is an unlimited source of goods and services

- Food - Recreation - Compounds - Climate - Etc.

But the ocean is an limited resource

Marine Global Changes

What are the symptoms ?

Marine Global changes

What are the causes ?

Planet infected by humans

13.86BY

Big Bang

4.6BY

Formation of the earth

4.45BY

Formation of the moon

3.85BY

Ocean & first cell

1.4BY first cell nucleus 0.53BY

first fish

0.23BY

first dinosaur

0.0002BY

first humans

Present 0.0000002BY

Industrial revolution

A short history of the universe

13.86BY Present

0 2 months 1 year

10 months 11 mo 11.5 mo

= 4h old = 1 second

A long year…

2x

The problem: human demography

« The combustion of coal by man. (…) In the geologically insignificant period of 1000 years the percentage of carbonic acid could therefore be doubled by this cause alone, if all other factors remained constant. The action of the ocean will retard and diminish any alteration in the percentage of carbonic acid in the atmosphere. These processes must be considered as extremely rapid. I shall not go into the problem of biological (…) importance of high percentage of carbonic acid which must certainly be very great. »

… since 1904 …

A global impact… CO2 emissions

The disease: CO2 emissions

1914-1918 WWI

1929 Stock Marker Crash

1940-1945 WWII

1973 Oil Embargo

1979 Peak Oil Price

1990-1991 Gulf War

Fossil fuels – 7.7 Petagr C every year Deforestation – 1.1 Petagr C every year

Total – 8.8 Petagr C every year

PETAGRAM???

1015 gr

1000000000000000 gr

1 billion tons

CO2 emissions

Chris Sabine – ASLO 2011

1 car = 100 Tons of coal (80% C)

How long is the “emission” train ???

CO2 emissions

8.8 Petagr C y-1

= 110 millions of cars = 44 times around the earth

26% absorbed by the oceans

= 1 x per second

CO2 emissions

The skeptics… The CO2 concentration was has been much higher in the past

(Prentice et al. 2001)

Symptoms: 1/ Global warming

- Temperature correlates with [CO2]atm - Temperature increased of 0.7ºC since 1750 - 1.4 to 5.8ºC expected by 2100

Other symptoms

2/ More catastrophic events

3/ Rise of sea level

Hoegh-Guldberg & Bruno 2010 Science

GROUP ASSIGNMENT #5 Can there be selection for extreme events?

Other symptoms

4/ Decreased salinity

5/ Hypoxia

CO2 + H2O H2CO3

CO2

30% more acidic since 1800 Two times more acidic by 2100

6/ Ocean acidification

CO2 + H20 H2CO3 HCO3- + H+ CO3

2- + 2H+ CO3

2- + Ca2+ CaCO3

OA = carbonate chemistry perturbation

(Doney et al. 2009)

Ocean acidification is happening now

(Turley et al. 2006)

Ocean acidification

Faster/higher changes than in 20 millions years

GROUP ASSIGNMENT #1 Impact of the rate of change?

Ocean acidification is happening now… In Sweden

The symptoms: Global warming Catastrophic events Sea level rise Hypoxia Salinity changes Ocean acidification

The cause: Humans (CO2)

Zalasiewicz et al. 2008

Global increase of human population and a high CO2 world - Global warming - Ocean acidification - Hypoxia - Increased precipitation - Increased catastrophic events

Local impacts including: - habitat destruction - over-exploitation of resources - local pollution - Introduction of species - etc.

Global changes on top of local’s

GROUP ASSIGNMENT #3 How to assess evolution in a multi-stressor world?

Large geographical variations

(courtesy Tatiana Ilyina)

Need locally relevant scenarios

Large temporal variations

Not only for pH (temperature, food, etc.)

To understand the impact of OA on an individual you need to take into account:

- Local scenarios - Local variability - Local stressors and other modulating

factors

GROUP ASSIGNMENT #2 Selection in a fluctuating environment, what is driving the response?

The only thing constantly changing is change and it comes equipped with a curse

A changing world

Marine Global Changes

©Robin Paris (1994)

What society expect from us? Ocean in a high

CO2 world: What will be the consequence on marine species /

population / ecosystems /

services?

Urgent need to predict (?)

Welcome into the Anthropocene…

The Big fives 1. Cretaceous-Tertiary (50% genera) 2. Triassic-Jurassic (58% genera) 3. Permian-Triassic (83% genera) 4. Late Devonian (50% genera) 5. Ordovician-Silurian (57% genera)

… past OA episode

The 3rd extinction (end of Permian)

The 3rd extinction (end of Permian)

(Knoll et al. 2007)

Extinction of 92% of all marine species

Welcome into the Anthropocene…

The 6th extinction

A lot of evidences… Coral bleaching (GW)

Species fitness (GW/SWrise)

-High productivity / diversity -Up to 70% mortality -Good and services

Species distribution (GW)

Hugues et al. 2010

Ecosystem shift

Richardson et al 2009 TREE

overfishing

eutrophication

warming acidification

Ecosystem shift

What do we know?

1. GC is real, fast and related to CO2 emissions

2. Impact of GW on marine species, ecosystems and services is certain (Marine ecosystems will change)

3. This impact can be dramatic, including species extinction within decades

What we do not know Proof of concept

Acclimation

Adaptation potential

Carry-over effects Environmental

variability

Ecological interactions

Synergy between stressors

Measured parameters

Not 1 species with the requested level of information BUT we mostly under-estimate the impact

KEY ROLE OF EVOLUTION???

CeMEB Advanced course Marine Evolution under Climate

Change

Setting up the stage

Marine Global Changes

A timely course

Navigating the future

Global changes as a research

priority

Panel discussion

at UN

A major threat

WGII: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability Yokohama, Japan 25-29 March 2014

A major threat

Climate negociations

Society problem

Politics

Economists

Citizens Scientists

What can (shall) we do?

Fight? Flight? or nothing?

- NOTHING: Adapt to the consequences - FIGHT: Work on the cause (decrease CO2) - FLIGHT: Work on the symptoms (buy some time)

Option 1: nothing

COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS (not what would be the cost of OA but what would be the benefits of doing something) Do nothing but

- create funds to cover the future loss (cost of restoration) - Adaptation (adapt to the loss)

Naughty boys

Nice Guys Can’t Get Girls

Parents: You have to be nice Naughty boy: Why? What will be the benefit for me?

Scientists: We have to decrease the CO2 emissions Economists: Why? What would be the benefits?

Option 2: Fight Work on the cause (CO2 emissions)

C40 is a network of the world’s megacities taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. + Renewable energy, improve energy efficiency, etc.

"the deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system, in order to moderate climate change”

Option 2: Fight Geoengineering (CO2 emissions)

Sorcerer’s apprentice

Option 2: Fight 1. Iron fertilization

increase marine biological productivity (photosynthesis) by adding iron

- Not efficient - Side effects (e.g toxic algae) - Increase anoxia

”It is premature to sell carbon offsets from ocean fertilization” (Buesseler et al. 2008)

Option 2: Fight 2. Ocean alkalinization

CaCO3 + CO2 + H2O -> Ca2+ + HCO3-

- Side effects? - Cost/Feasability

Accelerate the natural process of weathering to combat global warming and OA

Option 2: Fight 2. Ocean alkalinization

Olivine

”Let the earth help up to save the earth” (Olaf Schuiling)

Mg2SiO4 + 4CO2+ 4H2O -> 2Mg++ + 4HCO3

- + H4SiO4

- Feasible - Cheap - Side effects?

3. Carbon Capture and Storage

- Increase acidification - Ecosystem effects

Option 2: Fight

3. Carbon Capture and Storage

- Leakage - Ecosystem effects

Option 2: Fight

Option 3: Flight Ex: Solar radiation management

Atmospheric projects Stratospheric sulfur aerosols - Reflective aerosols or dust - Cloud whitening / marine cloud brightening / cloud reflectivity enhancement - Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement - Reflective balloons - Cloud seeding

Terrestrial albedo modification Cool roof - Reflective sheeting - Ocean changes

Farming, forestry, and land management Forestry - Grassland management - High-albedo crop varieties

Space projects Space mirrors - Moon dust - Dispersive solutions

Option 3: Flight 1. Reduce other stressors [local]

Citizens more willing to pay for the costs (Kelly et al. 2012)

- Coupling monitoring to oyster hatcheries - Take advantage of spatial variability - Select ”climate proof strains” [e.g. Parker et al.]

Option 3: Flight 2. Adaptations

Option 3: GMO 2. Adaptations

What can we do?

Decrease CO2 emissions we know enough

Science can help to buy some time e.g. increase ecosystem resilience e.g. act on other pressures (local vs global) e.g. select resilient strains e.g. identify hotspots (socio-eco, chemistry, biology)

More research is needed

BUT… Uncertainty is not an excuse for inaction

• Between 2005 and 2009, Washington and Oregon shellfish hatcheries suffered disastrous production losses

• Some experienced 100% mortality of Pacific oyster larvae

• Increased acidity was the culprit

• Pacific oysters as the “canary in the coal mine”

Success story

Identification and implementation of solutions [monitoring, culturing methods]

From problem to action Problem: Acid rains and lake acidification

Origin: SOx/NOx

Solution: Clean gas (scrubber)

Problem: Ocean acidification

Origin: CO2

Solution: Monitoring + New culturing methods

Problem: Ocean acidification / warming

Origin: CO2

Solution: Decrease CO2 emission

But… still facing consequences

Key role of evolution

Better understanding of modulating role (predictability)

Buy some time & adaptation

Others?